Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 191754 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 154 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH MOVES EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON MONDAY AND REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... FCST IS ON TRACK WITH NO SIG CHANGES AT THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SLIDES EAST TO THE GULF OF MAINE CAUSING WINDS TO VEER TO SE. FEW-SCT STRATO-CU BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TODAY...OVERALL A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON. TEMPS 10 OR SO DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT LONG ISLAND BEACHES. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... ZONAL UPPER FLOW EARLY...GIVE WAY TO EAST COAST RIDGING AS NORTHERN STREAM DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE WELL OFFSHORE WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. STRATUS DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NYC METRO AND POINTS W/NW...WITH RETURN FLOW TRAPPING MOISTURE UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. WITH POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD COVER AND ONSHORE FLOW TEMPS LIKELY DON`T BOTTOM OUT...BUT STILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE. TEMPS IN THE 50S ALONG THE COAST...AND 40S INTERIOR. GUSTY SE WAA FLOW ON SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MODERATION IN T/TD. MODELS SIGNALING SOME LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPING IN RETURN FLOW...BUT WITH RATHER DRY SOUNDINGS AND LACK OF FORCING THIS MAY INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS TO LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON UNDER A LIFTING BUT LINGERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. TEMPS MODERATING TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY BY LATE DAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE H5 FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES THEN COME INTO PLAY THEREAFTER. ONE OTHER ELEMENT THAT BEARS WATCHING IS HOW QUICKLY THE DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE SE COAST IS PICKED UP BY THE DIGGING TROUGH. THERE SEEMS TO BE LARGE DISAGREEMENT WITH THIS LEADING TO HIGH VARIABILITY IN THE SYSTEMS FORWARD SPEED AND TRACK. SINCE THERE IS SUCH HIGH SPREAD AMONGST THE GUIDANCE WON`T GO INTO MUCH DETAILS AT THIS POINT...BUT POPS MIGHT NEED TO BE INCREASED SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS MOISTURE STREAMS IN FROM THIS SYSTEM. IT COULD ALSO REMAIN FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE KEEPING ALL PCPN THERE AS WELL. HAVE ADDED SCHC POPS FROM AREAS E OF FAIRFIELD COUNTY CT AND NASSAU COUNTY N NY FOR NOW AS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INDICATING THIS AT TIMES OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. OTHERWISE...THE DIGGING TROUGH SLOWS UP OVER THE EAST COAST DUE TO DOWNSTREAM RIDGING...BUT STILL IS PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH FOR THE SFC COLD FRONT TO PUSH E OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT. DECENT SHORTWAVE ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT ALOFT...BUT IT SHOULD BE A FAIRLY QUICK SHOT OF RAIN WITH A SOMEWHAT MOISTURE STARVED ATMOSPHERE. THE NAM HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED AS IT IS THE ONLY SOLN THAT DEVELOPS A WAVE IN SRN NEW ENGLAND AND IS A SLOW OUTLIER WITH THE WAVE OFF THE SE COAST. THE SHORTWAVE ALSO PIVOTS INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE EVE TAKING THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH IT. HIGHEST CHCS OF PCPN WILL BE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER. HAVE ALSO ADDED SCHC TSTMS SUN AFTN/NIGHT WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY POSSIBLE. HIGHS SUN ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE AREA BY MON MORNING...FOLLOWED BY THE TROF AXIS MON EVE. DEEP LAYERED RIDGING THEN BUILDS FROM THE PLAINS RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND AT 17Z WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING AND SLOWLY EAST THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY. A NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST. MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AFTER 07Z AS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH CEILINGS 2KFT TO 3KFT. SATURDAY MORNING CEILINGS GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR AND THEN BECOME UNLIMITED WITH SCATTERED CU. VISIBILITIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED TONIGHT. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .SATURDAY...MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 14Z. .SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS IN FOG/CLOUDS...POSSIBLY LOCALLY IFR AFTER 04Z WITH DRIZZLE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE MORNING WITH AREAS OF MARGINAL VFR IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. .SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS ENDING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. .MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...VFR.
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&& .MARINE... NE WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 25 KT ON THE OCEAN EARLY THIS AFTN WILL SLOWLY VEER SE AND DIMINISH BY EVENING. WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH 3 TO 5 FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN RESULT IN THE SCA REMAINING IN EFFECT. SE WINDS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SUB SCA WINDS AND DIMINISHING RESIDUAL E SWELLS FROM EDOUARD ALLOW SEAS TO FALL JUST BELOW SCA OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS SAT NIGHT INTO MID WEEK. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS MAY BUILD TO MARGINAL SCA LEVELS BEHIND A COLD FRONT SUN NIGHT INTO MON. SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE THEN EXPECTED UNTIL LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH AN INCREASING NLY FLOW. SCA SEAS ON THE OCEAN ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE. && .HYDROLOGY... NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. LESS THAN 1/2 INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUN NIGHT. DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ350-353- 355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...24/NV NEAR TERM...TONGUE SHORT TERM...TONGUE/NV LONG TERM...24 AVIATION...MET MARINE...24/TONGUE HYDROLOGY...24/TONGUE

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