Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 250007 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 707 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. LOW PRES WILL PASS OFFSHORE ON THU. AN ARCTIC HIGH WILL THEN BUILD IN THRU THE WEEKEND. WINTRY WEATHER IS POSSIBLE SUN NGT INTO MON WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... ADDED A CHANCE OF FLURRIES ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND INTO COASTAL CONNECTICUT THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...AND CONVERGENCE IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE OCEAN. UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKS FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO EASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL DRAG A DEEP H5 TROUGH WITH SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVES AND A SFC COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...LOW PRES OVER THE GULF COAST WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND TRACK INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS. AS IT DEPARTS...A SECONDARY WEAK SFC LOW WILL FORM AROUND THE 40/70 BENCHMARK. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL WRAP AROUND THE LOW AND WILL SPREAD INTO EXTREME SE CT AND EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY. WILL CARRY LIKELY/CAT POPS FOR THOSE AREAS AND SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE ELSEWHERE. WILL NOT ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SE CT/EASTERN LI...AS SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL ONLY AVERAGE 1-2 INCHES IN THOSE AREAS. FOR THE REST OF THE CWA...ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION. NOT EXPECTING ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FOR NYC/NORTHEAST NJ/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CT AND WESTERN LI. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY DROP INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SW CT...AND IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS ELSEWHERE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WEST WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH WITH 20-25 MPH GUSTS...AND THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S...WHICH ARE STILL ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE OH VALLEY...AND THEN INTO WESTERN NY/PA BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT. SKIES CLEAR OUT WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE HIGH PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA. ANOTHER LOW WILL TRACK FRONT THE GULF COAST AND MOVE INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS ACROSS NYC/PORTIONS OF NE NJ/LONG ISLAND...AND INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10 FOR THE REST OF THE CWA. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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THE SREF STILL GIVES THE AREA A 30-60 PCT CHC OF MEASURABLE SNOW ON THU. THIS IS ON THE PERIPHERY OF LOW PRES OFFSHORE AND NRN STREAM ENERGY STILL OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. LITTLE TO NO QPF IN THE NAM AND GFS. AS A RESULT...KEPT POPS AT LOW CHC ON THE COAST AND SCHC INTERIOR. A 1040 MB ARCTIC HI THEN BUILDS IN THRU SAT NGT...THEN OFFSHORE EARLY SUN. THIS KEEPS FAIR WX AND SUB NORMAL TEMPS LOCKED IN. THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED EVEN LWR WRT TEMPS FOR SUN...SO HIGHS MAY ONLY FLIRT WITH FREEZING. NEXT SYS STILL ON TRACK FOR SUN NGT INTO MON...BUT THE TREND IS FASTER WITH THE NRN STREAM AND AS A RESULT COLDER ACROSS THE CWA. WENT WITH A WINTRY MIX...BUT IF THE TREND HOLDS IT COULD BE ALL SNOW...PARTICULARLY INTERIOR. FURTHERMORE...IF THE NRN STREAM SYS SPEEDS UP SIGNIFICANTLY MORE...IT COULD SHUNT THE SRN STREAM MOISTURE OFFSHORE AND RESULT IN A DRY OR MAINLY DRY FCST. EITHER WAY...BY LATE MON AND MON NGT A BRIEF SHOT OF HI PRES...THEN THE NEXT SYS BRINGS MORE ICE AND SNOW POTENTIAL IN THE TUE TIME FRAME.
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&& .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. SEEING MVFR CIGS AT THE LONG ISLAND/CT TERMINALS THIS EVE...WITH SCT FLURRIES...WHILE ALL OTHER SITES ARE VFR. THOSE CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR AT KISP BY ABOUT 03Z...THEN AS THE LOW PASSES OFF TO THE SE...KGON SHOULD SEE A BRIEF PD OF SNOW WITH IFR CONDS...AND THE BACK EDGE OF THIS SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO KBDR/KISP TO MENTION LOW-END VFR CIGS AND VCSH FROM ABOUT 05Z-08Z. SKIES SHOULD THEN RAPIDLY CLEAR...WITH VFR THROUGHOUT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PD. S WINDS 10-15 KT ALONG THE COAST SHOULD DIMINISH TO UNDER 10 KT AND BECOME SW LATE THIS EVENING...THEN W OVERNIGHT. AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN AND DAYTIME MIXING BEGINS...EXPECT W WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT FROM ABOUT 14Z-22Z...DIMINISHING TO AOB 10 KT WED EVENING. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CONDS IN LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE FROM 05Z-08Z. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THU THROUGH SUNDAY... .WED NIGHT...VFR. .THU...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WITH MVFR CONDS. .FRI-SAT...VFR. .SUNDAY...VFR DAYTIME. CHANCE OF MIXED PCPN WITH MVFR CONDS AT NIGHT.
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&& .MARINE...
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MO CHANGES TO WINDS AND SEAS AT THIS TIME. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...WEAK LOW PRES WILL IMPACT EASTERN WATERS LATE TONIGHT. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ON WEDNESDAY...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OCEAN WATERS. WILL ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OCEAN WATERS FOR WEDNESDAY FOR GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FT. SOME FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLE FOR OCEAN WATERS AS WELL DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH THU...WITH CONDS BLW SCA LVLS THRU MON.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... LIGHT SNOW WILL FALL OVER FAR EASTERN ZONES TONIGHT WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON LOCAL AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS AS TEMPS REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC/MPS NEAR TERM...MPS/MET SHORT TERM...MPS LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...GOODMAN MARINE...JMC/MPS/MET HYDROLOGY...JMC/MPS

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