Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KOKX 180807
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
307 AM EST Sat Feb 18 2017
High pressure will be the main weather feature today through Tuesday
with only a couple of dry cold front passages Sunday and Monday
mornings. A warm front will approach Tuesday night followed by a
weak cold front becoming nearly stationary in our vicinity Wednesday
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
High pressure over the region will bring us a mostly sunny day.
Associated subsidence limits mixing to around 950mb inland and even
lower near the coast with a SW return flow. Even so, temps at the
top of the mixed layer and mostly sunny conditions should allow high
temps in the 50s for most areas with even a 60 degree reading or two
for the urbanized areas of NE NJ.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front approaches late tonight. No PCPN expected with this,
but just enough clouds and winds to prevent ideal radiational
cooling. A MAV/NAM MOS blend looked good for lows.
Cold front moves through during Sunday morning. Models differ
regarding the magnitude of cold air advection, but all agree on a
deeper mixing layer due to offshore flow behind the front. So
although temps aloft cool, downsloping winds with a mostly afternoon
should bring high temps around or a little higher than those of
today in most cases. Dry weather continues Sunday night with a
mostly clear sky.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold front moves through dry during Monday morning, then deep-
layered ridging will follow through Tuesday. Little in the way of
clouds during this period. Monday will be at little breezy with the
onset of cold air advection, then light winds for Monday night and
Tuesday. Preferred cooler SuperBlend over NAM and MAV MOS for high
temps on Monday. Tuesday`s high will then be slightly cooler with
shallower mixing and not much of a change in temps aloft.
Tuesday Night thru the day Wednesday...will bring our next chc for a
light "mainly" rain event between the retreating high and
approaching short wave trough. Most likely rainfall amounts one
tenth to one quarter inch. Areas of light freezing rain possible for
a few hours across the far northern zones, including interior
Thursday and Friday...with more sun on Thu, temps once again are
forecast between 50 and 60 degrees, near 15 degrees above normal on
a light W flow. As low pressure approaches Friday with more cloud
cover and a light onshore flow, temps are fcst mainly in the upper
40s and low 50s, still above normal values.
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure remains south of the region as a warm front moves
across the area today. VFR conditions are expected through the TAF
Light and variable winds increase from the Southwest today with
gusts between 15-20 kt developing during the late morning and
afternoon. Timing of gusts could be 1-3 hours off. A low level jet
develops this evening of near 40kt at 2kft presenting low level wind
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.Saturday night-Sunday afternoon...VFR. LLWS diminishes overnight.
.Sunday night-Monday...VFR. NW winds near to right of 310 mag
10kt with gusts near 15-20kt during the daytime.
.Monday night through Tuesday evening...VFR.
.Late Tuesday night-Wednesday...MVFR possible in rain.
Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to prevail through
the weekend. Winds do increase a bit this afternoon and overnight
tonight which will bring a few occasional gusts to 25 kt. Seas will
build to 4 ft. A cold front will move across the waters on Sunday.
Following the cold frontal passage and as canadian high pressure
builds southeast across the area, a Small Craft Advisory/SCA is
possible across the Atlantic Ocean coastal waters south of Long
Island Sunday night and Monday as NW winds range from 15-20 kt with
occasional gusts near 25 kt and seas build to around 4 feet.
No hydrologic impacts are anticipated through the next 7 days as
any snow melt will be gradual. The next light "mainly" rainfall
between one tenth and 1/4 inch is forecast between a retreating
high pressure system and an approaching low Tuesday night and