Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 081806 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 106 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016 .SYNOPSIS... AN INTENSE STORM EAST OF CAPE COD WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY AND PASS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL THEN SPIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AN ARCTIC AIR MASS OVERSPREADS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LOOKS LIKE ANYWHERE WEST OF THE HUDSON...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE CITY...WILL NOT SEE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION SNOWFALL TODAY...SO HAVE DROPPED ADVISORIES HERE ACCORDINGLY. HAVE ALSO DOWNGRADED WARNINGS TO ADVISORIES OVER WESTERN SUFFOLK AND NEW HAVEN COUNTIES. WITH THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL MESOSCALE BANDING...HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE UP WARNINGS FOR EASTERN SUFFOLK AND SE CT. TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO ADJUSTED DOWNWARD FOR EASTERN ZONES. COLD DRY AIR IS BEING PULLED DOWN FROM THE CT VALLEY. WINDS COULD STILL GUST CLOSE TO 35 MPH AT TIMES...CREATING NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WHERE THE WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...BUT MORE LIKELY NEAR THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... ANY STEADIER SNOW REMAINING SHOULD TAPER OFF EARLY THIS EVENING. AS AN UPPER TROUGH TRACKS EAST...SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...AND BRING LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL EXTEND W FROM THIS OFFSHORE LOW...AND COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW JUST TO ITS NORTH. HARD TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THIS WILL SET UP ATTM...AND BEARS WATCHING ESPECIALLY FOR NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT PLUS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING DRY ADIABATIC AT TIMES WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AT OR BELOW 500FT THROUGH THE PERIOD SO ALL SNOW IS FORECAST. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE NEEDED FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH SUPERBLEND NUMBERS...SO DROPPED THEM DOWN A DEGREE FOR NOW. FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS... MAINLY LIGHT AMOUNTS IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD ENHANCED PRECIPITATION ON WED. A FIRST WAVE OF COLDER AIR COMES IN ON THU. VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AGAIN SO ANY MOISTURE IN THE AREA SHOULD BE SQUEEZED OUT WITH MORE LIGHT SNOW. SNOW CHANCES LESSEN ON FRI AT THIS TIME WITH THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXITING THE AREA. THE ARCTIC FRONT LOOKS TO BE FRI NIGHT SETTING THE STAGE FOR A FRIGID WEEKEND. PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS SAT...THEN DRY ON SUN WITH A 1040S HI BUILDING IN FROM THE W. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDS ON TAP FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS AS LOW PRES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO DEPART AND LOW PRES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SLOWLY TRACKS TO THE EAST. BANDS OF SNOW CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AND MOVE EAST. SNOW SHOULD BE OVER ACROSS KNYC TERMINALS AND TERMINALS WEST OF THE NY/CT BORDER DOWN THROUGH THE QUEENS/NASSAU BORDER BY 20Z. SNOW SHOULD STAY OUT OF KSWF/KEWR...AND ANY SNOW OVER KTEB/KHPN SHOULD BE OVER BY THEN AS WELL. EAST OF THAT LINE...SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT AS THE OFFSHORE LOW DEPARTS...SNOW SHOULD LIGHTEN UP. LOOKS LIKE A DRY PERIOD FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THEREAFTER...SEVERAL WAVES OF SNOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FROM TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THOUGH IT WILL NOT SNOW ALL OF THE TIME...PROLONGED SUB-VFR CONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS TIME. NE WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SNOW WINDS DOWN BY 20Z. AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SNOW WINDS DOWN BY 20Z. AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR ANY CHANGES TO FLIGHT CATEGORIES. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SNOW WINDS DOWN BY 20Z. AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SNOW WINDS DOWN BY 20Z. AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CONDS IN SNOW LIFT TO MVFR BY LATE AFTERNOON. BREAKS IN SNOW POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...BUT CONDS REMAIN SUB-VFR. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. NW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS OT 25 KT POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. .FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR...BUT OCNL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDS. && .MARINE... DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY. EXPECT A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS WITH GALE FORCE WINDS ON THE OCEAN...EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND...AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND BAYS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ON NY HARBOR...WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND...AND THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS. A FEW GUSTS TO STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE ON EASTERN OCEAN WATERS...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING. ALSO...A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO UPGRADE TO GALES. WINDS DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY MONDAY EVENING AS LOW PRES DEPARTS. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN HIGH...AS IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE SEAS TO SETTLE...AT LEAST BACK TO SUB-SCA LEVELS. HEADLINES FOR THE GALE WARNINGS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN UNCHANGED. SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN TUE-SAT. PERIODS OF SCA LEVEL WINDS LIKELY IN THE TUE-SAT PERIOD ELSEWHERE. && .HYDROLOGY... PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW TODAY...SO NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED. MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS THEN LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT AT THIS TIME AND ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... POTENTIAL FOR MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL IMPACTS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY DUE TO NEW MOON AND A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURES AFFECTING THE REGION. AN INTENSE LOW PRESSURE BROUGHT 2 TO 3 FT OR SURGE TO THE REGION THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN MODERATE COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS ALONG THE VULNERABLE SOUTH SHORE BAY AREAS OF QUEENS AND BROOKLYN AND WESTERN LI. POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE IMPACTS ACROSS VULNERABLE LOCALES ALONG WESTERN LI SOUND THROUGH 11AM...OTHERWISE JUST MINOR IMPACTS FOR SOUND ADJACENT LOCALES OF SW CT...COASTAL WESTCHESTER...AND WESTERN LI LOCALES. LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS THIS EVENING. WITH LOWER ASTRONOMICAL TIDES TONIGHT AND LIGHTENING WINDS...WATER LEVELS SHOULD BE A BIT LOWER...WITH MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE FLOODING FLOODING FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND/NY AND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND ADJACENT TO WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND. AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAYS HIGH TIDE CYCLES...WINDS SHOULD VEER MORE TO THE NE AS ADDITIONAL WAVE/S OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE SPRING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND MULTI-TIDAL CYCLE NATURE OF THE EVENT WILL FAVOR ADDITIONAL MINOR FLOODING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING IN THE SOUTH SHORE BAY AREAS TUESDAY. MINOR TO POSSIBLY MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS POSSIBLE INTO WEDNESDAY AM HIGH TIDE CYCLE...PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS AREAS. HIGH SURF OF 6 TO 10 FT WILL PRESENT A MODERATE TO HIGH THREAT FOR AREAS OF DUNE TOE EROSION ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES...AND A LOCALIZED POTENTIAL FOR OVERWASHES ON FIRE ISLAND. THIS IS BASED ON MODELED IMPACTS OF GALE CENTER FROM THE USGS COASTAL CHANGE HAZARDS PORTAL. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CTZ007- 008-011-012. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CTZ005- 006-009-010. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ009-010. NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ079- 081. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ068- 070-071-073-078-080-176>179. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ176. HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ080-081-178- 179. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-178-179. COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ071- 073-078-177. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ078-177. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ335- 338-345. GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-340-350- 353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN NEAR TERM...JC/GOODMAN SHORT TERM...GOODMAN LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...MET MARINE...BC/JMC HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV

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