Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KOKX 250115 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 915 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A series of weak low pressure troughs forming over land each day will move offshore each night through Tuesday night, while strong high pressure remains well to the southwest. The high will eventually build in on Wednesday. A warm front will approach on Thursday and move through at night. A cold front approaching from the north on Friday will stall nearby into the holiday weekend, with unsettled weather. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Added shwrs for the nwrn tier of the cwa for the next few hrs based on radar and stlt. No tstms per lightning data. Otherwise, temps have dropped of quickly outside of the city with mainly clr skies. The grids have been updated as a result.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Sunday should be another mostly sunny and pleasantly warm day, with highs 75-80. Another weak inland trough/pseudo-cold front should set up over land, and move offshore at night. As this takes place, an afternoon sea breeze should give way to stronger W winds for a while from late day into the evening. Low temps will be just a touch cooler than those fcst for tonight, ranging from the lower 50s inland, to lower 60s in/just outside NYC. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Looks fairly dry with comfortable humidity and slightly below normal temperature though mid week. A warm front approaches on Thursday as low pressure passes across southern Canada. In its wake, a cold front sags south into NY State on Friday. The front becomes stationary near the region into the weekend - which appears will be "unsettled." Region is in the right rear entrance to a strong 120+ KT polar jet streak along with SFC trof over the Hudson valley on Monday afternoon. Fortunately, instability is limited to below 500 HPA - at least based on SREF and GFS. NWP QPF is near zero and have thus confined any PoP to extreme NW area. Similar situation on Tuesday with perhaps a tad more instability and pseudo cold FROPA. Have a 20 POP for the AFTN. Wednesday is dry and then warm advection starts in on Thursday. Frontal boundary in the region, or just north, on Friday and have POPs in for TSRA. Looks to remain unsettled through the holiday weekend at this time. Temps come back to near seasonable on Thursday and then go above Friday into the weekend. No heat issues foreseen though. && .AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure builds into the region thru Sunday. VFR thru the TAF period. Winds diminish tonight with many locations becoming light and variable. Seabreezes are expected to develop Sunday late morning/afternoon. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .Sunday Night...VFR. Afternoon sea breezes expected. .Monday...VFR. Coastal sea breezes expected. .Tuesday...VFR. Isolated TSRA north and west of NYC. .Wednesday...VFR. .Thursday...VFR. && .MARINE... Ocean seas running 5-7 ft at the offshore buoys, but with winds below 15 kt, SCA for hazardous seas now in place. There could be a brief lull in seas Sunday afternoon before a tighter pressure gradient ahead of an approaching trough possibly brings them back to 5 ft. have held off on extending SCA that far out in time to see if the 1-2 ft anomaly between observed and model forecast seas continues into Sunday. For the longer term...tranquil on Monday and continuing through Thursday morning. Ocean seas will likely build to SCA criteria late Thursday and continue as such on Friday. && .HYDROLOGY... See Public Information Statement for area rainfall reports from this morning`s heavy rain. No hydrologic impacts expected Sunday and through at least the end of next week. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Astronomical tides are running very high, especially during the evening high tide cycles. NW flow has pushed enough water away from most susceptible locations to keep water levels tonight below flood benchmarks. This does not look for the be the case however for the Nassau south shore bays, where water levels should briefly touch or barely exceed minor thresholds early this evening, from 8-10 PM. && .EQUIPMENT... * The KOKX Doppler Weather Radar (WSR-88D) remains unavailable due to required maintenance. The radar could return to service as early as Sunday. * Surface Observations from KFRG (Farmingdale, NY) are not available. Observations from KHPN (White Plains, NY and KHVN (New Haven,CT) are being disseminated through backup methods. All is due to an FAA communication line outage. Return to service time is unknown. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ355. Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 2 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ350. Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 11 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ353.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Goodman/Tongue NEAR TERM...JMC/Goodman/Tongue SHORT TERM...Goodman LONG TERM...Tongue AVIATION...BC/JMC MARINE...Goodman/Tongue HYDROLOGY...Goodman/Tongue TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... EQUIPMENT...

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.