Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 231617 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1217 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A stationary front will remain just south of the area this afternoon, and then sink southward as a weak cold front tonight. High pressure will then build in through Friday, remain over the region through the weekend, and pass east early next week. A cold front will impact the region during the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Bulk of showers with MCS are well off the southern Mid atlantic coast. Only a few isold showers or sprinkles expected through this afternoon, first with the northernmost fringe of the MCS, then later on well NW of NYC as upper trough passes through. Do not expect any thunder, as NAM afternoon SBCAPE up to 500 J/kg well inland looks overdone compared to SREF/GFS soundings which are capped in the mid levels. High temps this afternoon should be mostly in the upper 70s and lower 80s, warmest from NYC north/west and also in the CT River valley. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... High pressure will build into the NE states tonight through Friday. GFS time series for New York City shows steadily rising MSLP beginning around 00Z. With subsidence and PW falling to around 0.75", the forecast is for dry weather. SuperBlend was used for temperatures, since NWP guidance was in good agreement. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The first half of the long term period will remain dry as high pressure remains over the region through the weekend. Temperatures this weekend will slowly warm into the 80s each day, possibly touching 90 north and west of NYC Sunday and Monday. In addition, a light pressure gradient and the combination of warm land temp and relative cooler water temps will likely result in afternoon seabreezes. Highs along the coast may only reach the lower 80s. The high moves offshore Sunday night, giving way to an approaching cold front Monday night. This front will slowly works its way across the region Tuesday through Wednesday. Will continue to carry chance POPs for showers and thunderstorms as the front passes through. Drier weather returns to end the week as high pressure returns. && .AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Low pressure will pass to the south of the terminals this afternoon. High pressure then begins to build in from the west overnight. VFR through the TAF period. Light and variable winds this morning will become SE at 5-10 kt through early afternoon. Winds then shift to the NE at around 5 kt tonight with high pressure building in. With the low tracking well south of the area, the best shower potential exists mainly for south coast terminals. It is possible much of the shower activity stays south of all terminals. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Light south/southwest winds will turn to the south/southeast by afternoon. KLGA TAF Comments: Light east/northeast winds will turn to the southeast by afternoon. KEWR TAF Comments: Light south/southwest winds will turn to the south/southeast by afternoon. The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud. KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .Friday-Sunday...VFR. .Monday...Mainly VFR with a chance for showers/thunderstorms late. && .MARINE... Winds and waves will remain below small craft advisory levels through early next week. Some near shore wind gusts may be possible both Sat/Sunday afternoon as sea breezes develop. && .HYDROLOGY... No significant rainfall through Monday. The next chance for precip will be Tuesday through Wednesday as a cold front passes through. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC/Goodman NEAR TERM...Goodman SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...BC AVIATION...FEB/CB/PW MARINE...BC/JMC/Goodman HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC

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