Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 230530 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1230 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE PASSES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY. THIS WARM FRONT LIFTS TO OUR NORTH MONDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT THEN FOLLOWS BEHIND IT MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE THE REGION TUESDAY. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THEN LINGERS NEAR THE AREA INTO FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST. WILL ADJUST HOURLY TEMPS/DEW POINTS BASED ON LATEST SFC OBS...WHICH SEEM TO BE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST. WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND FOR A FEW HOURS...AND WILL RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS BY A DEGREE OR SO. OTHERWISE...WEAK SHORTWAVE PASS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT IN ZONAL FLOW...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT LIQUID PRECIP. CLOUD COVER AND WAA SW FLOW SHOULD ONLY ALLOW SURFACE TEMPS TO REMAIN STEADY OR ONLY SLOWLY DROP OVERNIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR INTERIOR VALLEYS OF LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND CT TO DROP TO AROUND FREEZING IN A FEW SPOTS...BUT OVERALL EXPECT TEMPS TO HOLD ABOVE FREEZING THERE. FORECAST TEMPS MAY BE A DEGREE OR SO TOO COLD. FREEZING RAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE LOW AND SPARSE AT WORST ACROSS INTERIOR VALLEYS...BUT WILL BE MONITORED. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... RIDGING SUNDAY OCCURS AHEAD OF DIGGING MID WEST TROUGH. MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON OVERALL FEATURES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES AND DEEPENS OVER THE MID PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS DEEPENING LOW MARCHES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE AT NIGHT. FOR SUNDAY...ANY MORNING CLOUDS GIVE WAY TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SW WINDS GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPS RISE INTO THE LOWER 50S MOST LOCALES...CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND. THEN TEMPS REMAIN STEADY IN THE EVENING BEFORE RISING OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AS CLOUDS MOVE IN AND SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE. RAIN OUT AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH UPPER FLOW FOR EARLY WEEK...WITH PHASING SOUTHERN STREAM/NORTHERN STREAM AND PAC ENERGY OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY LIFTING INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC MON NIGHT/TUE. THE RESULT WILL BE A BOMBING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TAKING A SIMILAR PATH AS THE UPPER ENERGY. AHEAD OF IT...DEEP S/SW FLOW...WITH 70-75 KT LLJ...WILL BRING A MOIST AIRMASS (PW 3-4 STD ABOVE NORMAL) INTO THE REGION UP AND OVER AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. THE RESULT SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUN NIGHT THRU MON MORNING. A BIT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND STRONG FORCING INDICATE SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER...MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF TRI-STATE. RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MIDDAY MON AS WARM FRONT PASSES NORTH...WITH REGION WARM SECTORED IN ITS WAKE. UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPS...15-20 DEG ABOVE SEASONABLE...POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR MON AFT. A TIGHT SW GRADIENT AND CONTINUED HEALTHY LLJ OF 40-45 KT AT 950 MB SHOULD RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH...PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS N&W OF NYC MON WITH ANY BREAKS OF SUN AND RESULTANT DEEPER MIXED LAYER. COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH MON NIGHT...WITH SOME ACCOMPANYING LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE...AND THEN CAA IN ITS WAKE LATE. TRANQUIL AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS ON TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THEN POTENTIAL INCREASING FOR A COASTAL STORM IMPACTING THE REGION WED/WED NIGHT...BUT UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. THE DRIVER FOR THIS SYSTEM APPEAR TO BE PHASING NORTHERN STREAM AND PAC ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF DEEP CENTRAL US TROUGHING EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH THE ENERGY PIVOTING UP THE COAST MIDWEEK AS IT PHASES WITH YET ANOTHER PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY. DIFFERENCES EXIST MORE SO WITH THE DEGREE OF THIS SECOND INTERACTION...AFFECTING HOW NEGATIVELY TILTED ANS STRONG THE TROUGH BECOMES. THE RESULT IS SOME TIMING...BUT MAINLY TRACK DIFFERENCES WITH HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF TRACKS TO THE REGION WED NIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE PLAYED A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD TRACK BETWEEN OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEANS...WHICH WOULD TRACK LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE 40/70 LAT/LON BENCHMARK WED NIGHT. THIS WOULD BRING POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW COAST...SNOW INTERIOR ON WED...CHANGING TO ALL SNOW WED NIGHT FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE REGION AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND TRACK NORTH. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO TALK ABOUT SNOW AMOUNTS AND LOCATION...BUT AT THIS POINT A LOW POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW FOR A PORTION OF THE TRI-STATE. THEREAFTER...MODELS ARE STILL DIVERGENT OVER WHAT HAPPENS BEHIND THE STORM...BUT IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY THAT THERE COULD BE SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER IN ITS WAKE EITHER DUE TO A LINGERING TROUGH BEHIND THE LOW...OR ANOTHER WEAK STORM SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRES REMAINS SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES LATER TODAY. VFR THROUGH AROUND 03Z MONDAY. LOW CHANCE FOR POCKETS OF -FZRA TOWARDS DAYBREAK THIS MORNING AT KSWF WITH MVFR CIGS...BUT PROB REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. SW WINDS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE 8-12 KT DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH 45-50 KT WINDS AT 2000-3000 FT...WILL KEEP LLWS IN THE TAFS THROUGH AROUND 13Z. IF THESE WINDS MIX DOWN...AS APPEARS TO BE HAPPENING AT KGON...THEN SW WINDS WOULD RANGE FROM 15-20 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS. WINDS DIMINISH AFTER 13Z...AND WILL RANGE FROM 7-10 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT POSSIBLE SEA BREEZES AT KHPN TO KGON WITH LI SOUND TEMPS IN THE 40S. THIS WOULD BACK WINDS TO AROUND 170 TRUE AFT 17Z. WINDS WILL OTHERWISE BACK TO THE SOUTH TOWARDS EVENING. CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR/IFR BETWEEN 03-06Z MONDAY AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .TONIGHT-MONDAY...IFR OR LOWER IN RAIN/FOG. LLWS POSSIBLE WITH 50 KT WINDS 1500-2000 FT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH 20-35 KT GUSTS. .MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING CONDS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AT 10-15 KT. .TUESDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS. .TUESDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING WINDS. SUB-VFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE. .WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH PASSAGE OF COASTAL LOW. ACCUMULATING SNOW THREAT POSSIBLE FOR THE INTERIOR... BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW COULD OCCUR CLOSER TO THE COAST BASED ON TRACK OF LOW. STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON TRACK OF LOW AS WELL. .THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE AS WELL. && .MARINE... SW WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG INTO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS UP. MARGINAL CONDS IN WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND AND NEW YORK HARBOR. A FEW GALE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE OCEAN WATERS AND EASTERN LI SOUND. HOWEVER...THESE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF...SO WILL NOT UPGRADE TO GALE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. IN FACT...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...WITH SCA CRITERIA ELSEWHERE. WILL ISSUE A GALE WATCH BEGINNING LATE AT NIGHT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS. ROUGH OCEAN SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SUNDAY BEFORE BUILDING YET AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS PICK UP AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A STRONG LOW MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVING THROUGH LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH MON BRINGING THE THREAT OF GALES. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES WOULD BE ON THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT THIS COULD EXPAND TO THE OTHER ZONES. GALE WATCH FOR OCEAN WATERS THROUGH MON. SCA CONDITIONS OTHERWISE PREVAIL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS LATER TUE NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS THEN BECOME MORE PROBABLE LATER WED THRU THU AS A COASTAL STORM TRACKS TO THE SE OF THE WATERS. && .HYDROLOGY... RAIN MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A QUICK HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH POSSIBLE BY THE MORNING COMMUTE MONDAY. TOTAL RAINFALL WITH THIS EVENT FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE AROUND AN INCH. ANY MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING LOCALLY. A LOW POTENTIAL FOR 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION EXISTS WED INTO WED NIGHT. && .CLIMATE... RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY 24 NOVEMBER... LOCATION........RECORD/YEAR.....FORECAST MON HIGH TEMPS NEWARK..............75/1979..................70 BRIDGEPORT..........63/1979..................65 CENTRAL PARK........73/1979..................68 LAGUARDIA AIRPORT...68/1999..................69 JFK AIRPORT.........63/2001*.................67 ISLIP...............63/2001..................65 * ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ330-340-345-355. GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR ANZ350-353-355. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ350-353. && $$

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