Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KOKX 131122
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
622 AM EST Fri Jan 13 2017
A cold front will slide south of the area early this morning.
Polar high pressure then builds into the region today and
tonight. The high then moves east of the area on Saturday. A weak
wave of low pressure passes along a stationary boundary well
south of the area late Saturday into Saturday night. High
pressure builds over the region Sunday into Monday, and moves
offshore Monday night as a warm front approaches, then moves
through Tuesday. A cold front moves through Wednesday into
Wednesday night. Weak high pressure builds in Thursday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A cold front will push east of the region early this morning
with strong high pressure over the great lakes building into the
region later today. Expect much colder temperatures behind the
front, along with gusty northwest winds. Temperatures today will
remain nearly steady or fall, with high in the lower and middle
40s. The warmest of the temperatures today should occur early
this morning. A gusty NW wind up to 25 mph will make it feel more
seasonable in the 30s.
Tonight, mid and high level clouds increase from the west as a
wave of low pressure moves out of the Ohio Valley. Overnight lows
fall into the teens and 20s.
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure remains north of there region Saturday morning,
then starts to slide eastward during the afternoon. Meanwhile, a
wave of low pressure moves out of the Ohio valley Saturday
morning and passes south of the region Saturday evening, as it
travels along a stationary front. Expect a mostly cloudy period
with a chance of snow. Forecast models keep most of the
precipitation south of the region, and with a strong high
pressure system nearby, will limit POPs to chance or slight
chance, with the highest pops across the southern half of the
CWA. Its possible the northern half of the CWA remains dry.
Overall with this being a light QPF event, only expecting a
dusting to a light coating.
Any snow ends Saturday evening, with drier weather expected for
most of Saturday night.
Expect cold temperatures through the short term period. Highs
on Saturday will only reach the upper 20s to lower 30s, with
most locations remaining below freezing. Saturday night, lows
fall into the teens and 20s.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Near zonal flow will predominate at the beginning of the extended
period with a southern stream shortwave expected to phase with a
northern stream wave during Monday, and then progress to the east
Monday night through Wednesday. The forecast remains fairly
consistent with the previous thinking. At the surface and warm front
will be developing to the west and southwest of the region Monday
night with increasing isentropic lift. Moisture will be rather
limited. Thermal profiles still support a chance of a wintry mix
inland ahead of the warm front, with sleet and freezing rain
possible. Will keep the probabilities at chance, with some
uncertainty to the exact timing of the warm front development and
movement, and with weak ridging ahead of the front. Tuesday morning
the warm front is expected to lift to the north, however, with the
surface low remaining well to the west the timing of the northward
push remains uncertain and there could be a more prolonged period of
wintry weather into Tuesday.
Later Tuesday the upper flow becomes rather diffluent and weak with
little eastward progress of the cold front with the low moving into
southern Canada. Will keep a chance of precipitation Tuesday night
into Wednesday night. Weak ridging builds ahead of the next southern
stream shortwave for Friday. So will keep slight chance probabilities
Thursday into Friday.
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Patchy MVFR becoming
VFR by 14Z. Gusty northwest flow will develop today, gradually
turning north then northeast overnight and subsiding as high
pressure builds to the north.
NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
KJFK TAF Comments: Gusts may be occasional through 14Z.
KLGA TAF Comments: Gusts may be occasional through 14Z.
KEWR TAF Comments: Gusts may be occasional through 14Z.
The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.
KTEB TAF Comments: Gusts may be occasional through 14Z.
KHPN TAF Comments: Gusts may be occasional through 14Z.
KISP TAF Comments:Gusts may be occasional through 14Z.
.OUTLOOK FOR 93Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.Friday night...VFR. NW-N winds diminishing to below 10KT late.
.Saturday-Saturday night...Sub VFR is possible in light snow
Saturday afternoon/Saturday evening. Best chance of Sub VFR will be
across southern terminals.
.Monday night-Tuesday...MVFR or lower possible in rain near the
coast, and wintry mix inland.
-- End Changed Discussion --
SCA conditions are expected on the ocean waters on today as gusty
NW winds occur behind a cold frontal passage. Winds and seas
gradually subside Friday. Have extended the SCA on the central
and eastern ocean zones through 06z.
Sub-SCA conditions are then expected after 06z tonight
through Saturday night as a weak gradient over the waters will
keep conditions tranquil.
A weak pressure gradient force will be across the forecast waters
Sunday into Monday as high pressure builds over the waters, then
moves offshore. A weak warm front will approach west of the waters
Monday night into Tuesday.
Winds and seas will remain below small craft advisory levels Sunday
No significant rainfall is forecast this weekend into the middle of
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ355.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for ANZ350-353.