Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 251447 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1047 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front over southeastern New York and southern New England will drift south through the Tri-State Region today. An unsettled weather pattern continues Sunday into the middle of next week. Cold front to our south returns to the region Sunday night into Monday and moves offshore Monday night. Another frontal system approaches on Tuesday and moves across Tuesday night into Wednesday. High pressure returns Thursday ahead of the next front on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Mild temps expected today for coastal plain despite mostly cloudy skies...with only weak caa on offshore flow...pushing temps well into the 50s to around 60 for LI and lower 60s for NYC metro and NE NJ. Mid to upper 50s for coastal CT...with highs around 50 for interior. Spotty light rain shower or sprinkle activity expected along the nearly stationary baroclinic zone across the coastal plain into this afternoon. Mainly dry across northern zones. This activity should slowly sink south through the afternoon. Meanwhile...upper jet streak induced shower activity across central NY/New England will likely not approach northern portions of the Tri- State until late in the day. By that time...it is likely to weaken to scattered shower/sprinkle activity as jet forcing moves east.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
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Warm/moist advection will continue above the surface in broad westerly then southwesterly flow, while cooler conditions at the surface behind the cold front will maintain a strong inversion over the area. Overall a favorable set up for stratus tonight...but low-levels may be too dry for fog/drizzle tonight. Increasing chances for drizzle/light shower activity as the day progresses Sunday as low-level flow veers easterly...particularly across far W/NW hills with upslope lift.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Rain chances increase Sunday night into Monday as a short wave passes through the area, allowing a warm front to return northward. A second short wave quickly follows for Tuesday into Wednesday, with the attendant surface trough/cold front moving through Tuesday night. Temperatures Tuesday are expected to be above normal as southerly flow strengthens following the warm frontal passage. By Wednesday, flow returns to a west-northwest direction with subsidence, enhanced by downslope flow and clearing skies again leading to another potentially above normal temperature day. The unsettled pattern continues through the end of the week, with a degree of uncertainty for Thursday and Friday depending on the overall evolution of a series of upper waves emanating from the Pacific. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A cold front moving slowly south through the terminals will move south of the area this afternoon. High pressure builds to the north and into the region tonight. VFR conditions are expected to remain until mid afternoon...with low potential for MVFR cigs thereafter. IFR cigs are possible tonight, with a low prob for IFR visibilities if drizzle and fog develop. There is uncertainty as to the timing of the cold front passage and the developing lowering conditions, and how low ceilings will become. As high pressure moves in late tonight, there may be some improvement in ceilings. SW to W winds 10 KT or less, to light and variable will shift to the NE around 10 KT. The NE to E flow remains through 12Z Sunday. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .Sunday-Monday...MVFR to IFR, with LIFR or lower possible. Periods of rain, drizzle and fog. .Monday night-Tuesday night...MVFR or lower possible. .Wednesday...becoming VFR. NW winds G15-20kt possible in the afternoon.
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&& .MARINE...
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A back door cold front is expected to move slowly across the waters today. Ocean seas east of Fire Island Inlet are running 4 to 6 feet due to a southerly swell. With the passage of the cold front an east to northeast flow develops and persists at least through the weekend as the cold front remains south of the waters. The long fetch easterly flow will allow for ocean seas to remain at minimal small craft levels into at least Sunday and possibly into the beginning of the week. There may be a brief period late this afternoon into this evening when ocean seas will be below small craft levels. With seas being the main hazard have converted to a small craft for hazardous seas, Sunday west of Fire Island Inlet, and today through Sunday east of Fire Island Inlet. From late Monday through Monday night, sub-sca conditions are forecast with an overall weak pressure gradient. Seas may build again to around 5 feet Tuesday as a cold front passes through the waters. Otherwise winds and seas should remain below SCA levels into Wednesday.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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Measurable rain chances gradually increase late Sunday through Monday, with around a half inch to an inch accumulation overall. Unsettled conditions will continue through the week. With rain expected over a broad period of time, no hydrologic concerns are anticipated at this time.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ355. Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MD/MET NEAR TERM...MD/NV SHORT TERM...MD/NV LONG TERM...MD AVIATION...MET MARINE...MET/NV HYDROLOGY...MD/NV

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