Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 131122 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 622 AM EST Fri Jan 13 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will slide south of the area early this morning. Polar high pressure then builds into the region today and tonight. The high then moves east of the area on Saturday. A weak wave of low pressure passes along a stationary boundary well south of the area late Saturday into Saturday night. High pressure builds over the region Sunday into Monday, and moves offshore Monday night as a warm front approaches, then moves through Tuesday. A cold front moves through Wednesday into Wednesday night. Weak high pressure builds in Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A cold front will push east of the region early this morning with strong high pressure over the great lakes building into the region later today. Expect much colder temperatures behind the front, along with gusty northwest winds. Temperatures today will remain nearly steady or fall, with high in the lower and middle 40s. The warmest of the temperatures today should occur early this morning. A gusty NW wind up to 25 mph will make it feel more seasonable in the 30s. Tonight, mid and high level clouds increase from the west as a wave of low pressure moves out of the Ohio Valley. Overnight lows fall into the teens and 20s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... High pressure remains north of there region Saturday morning, then starts to slide eastward during the afternoon. Meanwhile, a wave of low pressure moves out of the Ohio valley Saturday morning and passes south of the region Saturday evening, as it travels along a stationary front. Expect a mostly cloudy period with a chance of snow. Forecast models keep most of the precipitation south of the region, and with a strong high pressure system nearby, will limit POPs to chance or slight chance, with the highest pops across the southern half of the CWA. Its possible the northern half of the CWA remains dry. Overall with this being a light QPF event, only expecting a dusting to a light coating. Any snow ends Saturday evening, with drier weather expected for most of Saturday night. Expect cold temperatures through the short term period. Highs on Saturday will only reach the upper 20s to lower 30s, with most locations remaining below freezing. Saturday night, lows fall into the teens and 20s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Near zonal flow will predominate at the beginning of the extended period with a southern stream shortwave expected to phase with a northern stream wave during Monday, and then progress to the east Monday night through Wednesday. The forecast remains fairly consistent with the previous thinking. At the surface and warm front will be developing to the west and southwest of the region Monday night with increasing isentropic lift. Moisture will be rather limited. Thermal profiles still support a chance of a wintry mix inland ahead of the warm front, with sleet and freezing rain possible. Will keep the probabilities at chance, with some uncertainty to the exact timing of the warm front development and movement, and with weak ridging ahead of the front. Tuesday morning the warm front is expected to lift to the north, however, with the surface low remaining well to the west the timing of the northward push remains uncertain and there could be a more prolonged period of wintry weather into Tuesday. Later Tuesday the upper flow becomes rather diffluent and weak with little eastward progress of the cold front with the low moving into southern Canada. Will keep a chance of precipitation Tuesday night into Wednesday night. Weak ridging builds ahead of the next southern stream shortwave for Friday. So will keep slight chance probabilities Thursday into Friday. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Patchy MVFR becoming VFR by 14Z. Gusty northwest flow will develop today, gradually turning north then northeast overnight and subsiding as high pressure builds to the north. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Gusts may be occasional through 14Z. KLGA TAF Comments: Gusts may be occasional through 14Z. KEWR TAF Comments: Gusts may be occasional through 14Z. The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud. KTEB TAF Comments: Gusts may be occasional through 14Z. KHPN TAF Comments: Gusts may be occasional through 14Z. KISP TAF Comments:Gusts may be occasional through 14Z. .OUTLOOK FOR 93Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... .Friday night...VFR. NW-N winds diminishing to below 10KT late. .Saturday-Saturday night...Sub VFR is possible in light snow Saturday afternoon/Saturday evening. Best chance of Sub VFR will be across southern terminals. .Sunday...VFR. .Monday...VFR. .Monday night-Tuesday...MVFR or lower possible in rain near the coast, and wintry mix inland.
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&& .MARINE... SCA conditions are expected on the ocean waters on today as gusty NW winds occur behind a cold frontal passage. Winds and seas gradually subside Friday. Have extended the SCA on the central and eastern ocean zones through 06z. Sub-SCA conditions are then expected after 06z tonight through Saturday night as a weak gradient over the waters will keep conditions tranquil. A weak pressure gradient force will be across the forecast waters Sunday into Monday as high pressure builds over the waters, then moves offshore. A weak warm front will approach west of the waters Monday night into Tuesday. Winds and seas will remain below small craft advisory levels Sunday through Tuesday. && .HYDROLOGY... No significant rainfall is forecast this weekend into the middle of the week. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ355. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for ANZ350-353. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/MET NEAR TERM...BC SHORT TERM...BC LONG TERM...MET AVIATION...MD MARINE...BC/MET HYDROLOGY...BC/MET

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