Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 281840 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 240 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES TO THE SOUTH INTO MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE MONDAY...THEN PUSHES TO THE SOUTH OF THE TRI-STATE LATE MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS TO THE NORTH TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN BEGINS TO CROSS THE TRI-STATE SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... PATCH OF BKN CIRRUS IS MOVING GRADUALLY NE ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...SRN CT AND LONG ISLAND...AND WILL LEAD TO 1-2 HR PD OF SUNSHINE FILTERED BY HIGH CLOUDS. OTHERWISE EXPECT SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. MODIFIED HIGH TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY BASED ON TREND FROM PREV FCST...EXCEPT ACROSS INTERIOR SRN CT WHERE TEMPS ARE RUNNING AHEAD OF FCST. THAT YIELDS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S FOR MOST INLAND SPOTS...LOWER 80S MOST ELSEWHERE...AND UPPER 70S ALONG MOST SOUTH FACING SHORES. SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS ON POSSIBLE RECORD HIGHS. BKN HIGH CLOUDS OVER WRN PA WILL STREAM IN OVERNIGHT...AND LIMIT RADIATION FOG POTENTIAL EXCEPT OVER SE CT AND ERN LONG ISLAND. NAM CONTINUES TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN...AND HAS BEEN RIGHT IN THIS RESPECT OVER MOS GUIDANCE WITH SOME RECENT EVENTS...SO WILL STILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FOG OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON MON AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. NO PRECIP EXPECTED...BUT CLOUD COVER AND LOWERING HEIGHTS ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO TEMPS NOT QUITE AS WARM AS THOSE OF TODAY BUT STILL ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WITH UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. A BACK DOOR COOL FRONT SHOULD SLIP INTO ERN SECTIONS LATE MON NIGHT WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST SHARPENS...SO HAVE FCST LIKELY POP FOR ERN LONG ISLAND...CHANCE POP FOR THE REST OF LONG ISLAND AND SRN CT...AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POP ELSEWHERE. GFS/NAM MOS BLEND FOR LOW TEMPS...WITH 55-60 INLAND AND 60-65 ELSEWHERE... LOOKED REASONABLE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A DEVELOPING CLOSED 500 HPA LOW MOVING INTO NE PA/N NJ/SE NY BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE UNSETTLED WEATHER...WITH LOW CLOUDS AROUND...AND SOME MAINLY ISOLD SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES FROM TIME TO TIME. SO CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 950 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TUESDAY - WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF NORMAL. FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH MEN/MEX/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED WITH READINGS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CLOSED MID TO LEVEL LOW TRACKS TO SE OF CAPE COD BY 12Z THURSDAY. THEY THEN DIVERGE ABOUT WHERE IT MOVES FROM THERE...WITH THE ECMWF TAKING IT TO THE ESE...THE GFS THE SE...WHILE THE CMC DEVOLVES IT INTO A BROADER CIRCULATION THAT EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATES TO OUR SE BY 00Z SATURDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT POPS TO AT MOST SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE/OPEN THAN THE GFS WITH A 700-500 HPA TROUGH - WITH A POSSIBLE CLOSED LOW THAT TRACKS FROM THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT TO THE APPALACHIANS IN THE GFS AND INTO THE NE U.S. IN THE ECMWF BY 00Z SUNDAY. GIVEN THAT THEY ARE SIMILAR IN OVER ALL IDEA AND DIFFER ONLY IN THE DETAILS...HAVE OPTED FOR A BLEND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS RESULTS IN HAVING CHANCE POPS OVER THE NW 1/2 OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND OVER THE ENTIRE CWA SATURDAY. FOR TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THOUGH SATURDAY USED A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM GUIDANCE WITH 00Z ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RUN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. A LARGE AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE AREA LATE MONDAY. SCT-BKN MAINLY CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH VFR CIGS DEVELOPING AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY. LIGHT SEA BREEZES RANGING FROM 160 TO 210 DEGS NEAR 10 KT WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. SIMILAR LIGHT SEA BREEZES WILL REDEVELOP BY 17Z MONDAY AND CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRI... .MON NIGHT-WED...CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS VSBY AND RAIN...MAINLY EAST OF THE NYC TERMINALS. WINDS EAST 10-15 KT. .WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. .FRI...CHANCE OF MVFR REDEVELOPING. && .MARINE... WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AS A LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THEN OFFSHORE. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE FORECAST FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD...BUT LOW PRES LOOKS TO IMPACT THE WATERS STARTING LATE TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. GUSTY EAST TO NE WINDS COULD AVERAGE 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS ON MOST WATERS...AND IF THESE WINDS DEVELOP...OCEAN SEAS WOULD BUILD TO 4-6 FT BY WEDNESDAY...AND THEN TO 6-9 FT BY FRIDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... DRY THROUGH MONDAY. AT THIS TIME THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST IN THIS TIME FRAME IS OF BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. SO GIVEN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW LINGERING NEAR THE AREA...WITH A PROLONG PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW...IN THIS TIME FRAME...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SCENARIO CHANGES TO ONE PRODUCING MORE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WORK WEEK. && .CLIMATE... RECORD AND FCST HIGHS FOR TODAY SEPTEMBER 28TH... LOCATION.......RECORD/YEAR SET...FCST... NEWARK.............85/1954*.......87.... BRIDGEPORT.........81/1959........81.... CENTRAL PARK.......88/1881........85.... LAGUARDIA..........86/1943........85.... JFK AIRPORT........82/1948........77.... ISLIP..............78/2007*.......80.... * AND IN PREVIOUS YEARS && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN NEAR TERM...GOODMAN SHORT TERM...GOODMAN LONG TERM...MALOIT AVIATION...GC MARINE...GOODMAN HYDROLOGY... CLIMATE...

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