Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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636 FXUS61 KOKX 282203 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 603 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASS EAST OFF THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ON SATURDAY WILL THEN GIVE WAY TO LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY AND MONDAY... FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... BAND OF LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS APPROACHING FROM NE PA AND CENTRAL NJ AND HOLDING TOGETHER FAIRLY WELL...SO HAVE FCST LIKELY POP FOR THIS EVENING FOR NYC METRO AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. RADAR RETURNS OVER NORTHERN PA CONFIRM EARLIER THINKING THAT ENHANCED LIFT FROM COMBO OF THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF AN UPPER JET STREAK AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND H7 FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD IMPACT MAINLY INLAND SECTIONS THIS EVENING...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POP THERE. PRECIP SHOULD THEN TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S NYC...LOWER 40S IN SURROUNDING AREAS...AND UPPER 30S INLAND AND ACROSS ERN LONG ISLAND. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... EXPECT CLOUDS TO REMAIN AROUND THROUGH THE DAY ON FRI...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES THROUGH THE DAY EXCEPT OUT EAST. CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT HIGH TEMPS MAINLY TO THE LOWER AND MID 50S. VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS FRI EVENING FROM NYC METRO NORTH/WEST... WITH LOWER CHANCES FARTHER EAST. COULD BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING LATE FRI NIGHT AS A WEAK DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS IN ITS WAKE. LOW TEMPS SIMILAR TO THOSE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... GENERAL TROUGHINESS NOTED THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. DETAILS IN HANDLING OF VARIOUS UPPER SHORTWAVES UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT OVERALL PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...AND AT LEAST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. IN GENERAL...DRY WX EXPECTED SATURDAY. UNSETTLED...WET WX POSSIBLE SUNDAY-MONDAY. DRY FOR THE MOST PART TUE AND WED...ALTHOUGH A FEW POP UP SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY DUE TO POSSIBLE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY APPROACHING...WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE PASSING OFFSHORE AND A COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. && .AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LOW PROB OF MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. LIGHT RAIN WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM W TO E THIS EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STEADY RAIN IS OVER THE CITY TERMINALS AND ALONG THE CONNECTICUT COAST. ANY RAIN COMES TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 10KT OR LESS TO START...BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT. WINDS THEN CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 02Z AND FRI MORNING. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 02Z AND FRI MORNING. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 02Z AND FRI MORNING. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 02Z AND FRI MORNING. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 02Z AND FRI MORNING. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 02Z AND FRI MORNING. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... .FRI NIGHT...VFR. CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. .SAT...VFR. .SUN THROUGH MON...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN. .TUE...VFR.
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&& .MARINE... QUIET TONIGHT...THEN ENE FLOW INCREASING TO NEAR 20 KT SHOULD BUILD OCEAN SEAS TO MINIMAL SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE DAY FRI. SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ISSUED AS FLOW SHOULD BE STEADY...WITH GUSTS AOA 25 KT NOT EXPECTED. OCEAN SEAS SUBSIDE BY FRI NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ON SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING TO THE N AND NW BEHIND THE LOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS OCEAN SEAS BUILD. && .HYDROLOGY... ONLY UP TO 1/4 INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH FRI NIGHT. NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WOULD BE SATURDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY...AND TAPERING OFF MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN AMOUNTS CARRY UNCERTAINTY...BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/PW NEAR TERM...GOODMAN SHORT TERM...GOODMAN LONG TERM...NV AVIATION...FEB MARINE...GOODMAN/PW HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/PW

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