Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 261957 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 357 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Weak high pressure builds farther offshore tonight as a cold front approaches from the Great Lakes. The front moves through the area Tuesday evening. High pressure will then briefly follow for the middle of the week. Another frontal system approaches for the end of the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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Afternoon seabreeze has made good northward progress along the Connecticut and Long Island coasts, and has pushed well inland. Due to mid level capping and dry low-levels, convection is not expected the remainder of this afternoon/early evening, outside of any scattered cumulus. Anomalously strong upper trough across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley states pivots eastward the next couple of days with gradual height falls and increasing daytime instability. In addition, the 12Z guidance does show some mid level forcing late tonight, but the airmass is likely too dry to support rain. The GFS is being discounted at this time. However, there is likely going to be an increase in clouds overnight. Overnight lows will be just below normal, ranging from the mid 50s inland/Pine Barrens Region of Long Island to the mid 60s NYC metro. There remains a moderate risk for the development of rip currents into this early evening.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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Airmass gradually destabilizes on Tuesday with height falls and approaching cold front over the Great Lakes. However, dry low- levels and lack of strong surface trigger will be limiting factors for the development of showers/thunderstorms. The best chance will be across the interior during the afternoon hours. Wind shear is also weak, limiting any organization. Cold front works across the area in Tuesday evening with high pressure to follow. Daytime highs will once again be near or just below seasonable levels.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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High pressure will be in control Wednesday through Thursday night, bringing dry conditions and near normal temperatures across the area. As high pressure moves offshore, warmer temperatures and increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms will develop Friday through Sunday. High pressure builds back on Monday, bringing more seasonable temperatures and dry conditions across the area.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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VFR through the TAF period with high pressure south and east of the terminals. Winds will gradually back to the S-SW into this afternoon with speeds increasing to around 10 kt. Afternoon sea breezes have developed across the at coastal terminals with speeds 10 to 15 kt. Winds will gradually diminish overnight. There is a low chance for a shower or storm NW of NYC metro terminals this afternoon/evening. A trough will push across the region on Tuesday. Despite an increase in cloud cover, conditions will remain VFR. winds will be from the southwest, with afternoon gusts into the upper teens to near 20kt. ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Occasional gusts up 20 kt possible this afternoon. KLGA TAF Comments: Occasional gust up 20 kt possible this afternoon. KEWR TAF Comments: Gusts may end up more occasional this afternoon. KTEB TAF Comments: An occasional gust 18-20 kt possible this afternoon. KHPN TAF Comments: An occasional gust up to 18-20 kt possible this afternoon. KISP TAF Comments: Occasional gusts up 20 kt possible this afternoon. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .Tuesday afternoon...Mainly VFR. Chance of a late day shower/thunderstorm. .Wednesday...VFR. .Thursday...Mainly VFR. Chance of a late day shower/thunderstorm. .Friday and Saturday...Sub-VFR in showers and thunderstorms.
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&& .MARINE...
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With an overall weak pressure gradient remaining across the region, winds and seas are expected to remain below small craft advisory criteria (25kt winds, 5 ft seas) through Tuesday. Below small craft advisory conditions expected Wednesday as High pressure moves south across the area waters. Winds and seas increase, and small craft advisory conditions are possible later Thursday and into Saturday.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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No hydrologic impacts expected Wednesday through the beginning of the week.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Astronomical tides are still running high with potentially another round of isolated minor coastal flooding possible across the south shore back bays of Nassau, which could be seen with the high tides tonight (approximately between 10pm and 12am). The water levels would only be expected to touch the minor benchmarks, again for just a few gages in the south shore bays.
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&& .EQUIPMENT...
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Observations from KFRG (Farmingdale, NY) are not available. Observations from KHPN (White Plains NY) and KHVN (New Haven CT) are being disseminated through backup methods. All is due to an FAA communication line outage. Return to service time is unknown.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Fig/DW NEAR TERM...DW SHORT TERM...DW LONG TERM...Fig AVIATION...BC MARINE...Fig/DW HYDROLOGY...Fig/DW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DW EQUIPMENT...//

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