Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 251948 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 348 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TRI-STATE AREA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY...THEN MOVES EAST TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE LATE IN THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ON TAP LATE TONIGHT AS A STRONG UPPER LOW PASSES NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND GUSTY NW FLOW DEVELOPING TOWARD DAYBREAK. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF CLOUDS AS WELL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THEN STRATA CU DEVELOPING IN THE NW ZONES IN THE COLD ADVECTION TOWARD MORNING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S INLAND...TO THE LOWER 50S AT THE COAST. THIS REMAINS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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CYCLONIC FLOW AND CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION ON SUN WILL RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH MORE SUN NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE MID AND UPPER 50S. STAYED JUST A BIT BELOW MET/MAV MOS GUIDANCE...BUT HIGHER THAN 2M MODEL TEMPS. IN ADDITION...GUSTY NW WINDS UP TO 35 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED AS A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEYS. SKIES CLEAR SUN NIGHT AND WINDS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S INLAND TO THE MID 40S AT THE COAST. THIS WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE VALUES.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES ARISE LATE IN THE WEEK. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGE BUILDS MONDAY AND PASSES EAST BY TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...PASSES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...THEN CROSSES THE NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THE FLOW APPEARS TO FLATTEN AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST. THEN ATTENTION TURNS TOWARD CENTRAL CANADA AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES SOUTHWARD ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH...LIKELY CARVING OUT A DEEPER TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK OR INTO THE WEEKEND. LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW LOW PRESSURE CUTTING OFF AROUND THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. HOWEVER ECMWF HOLDS THIS TROUGH/CLOSED LOW FURTHER WEST AS GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE PIVOTING THE CLOSED LOW EASTWARD. AS SUCH...THE PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH/LOW DIFFERS QUITE A BIT BY SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY BUILDS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION SOMETIME WEDNESDAY AS SFC LOW LIFTS WELL TO THE NORTH IN CANADA. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA SOUTH AND EAST THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE UPSTREAM APPROACHES. THIS LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY. LOOKING AT ECMWF AND GFS...DIFFERENCES ARISE AS THE GFS DEEPENS THIS PARENT LOW MUCH MORE THAN ECMWF. ECMWF DEVELOPS A DEEPER WESTERN ATLANTIC LOW...DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES ALOFT ALREADY MENTIONED. IN GENERAL...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH MINIMAL POPS WITH THE COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER JUST EAST OFFSHORE AS THE FRONT IS SLOW TO CLEAR THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT THURSDAY IS DRY ONCE AGAIN. THEN...UNSETTLED CONVECTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DETAILS AT THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL MONDAY. THEN WARM AIR ADVECTION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SHOULD BOOST TEMPS TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. MILD READINGS...SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...CONTINUE WEDNESDAY. THEN TEMPS COOL SOMEWHAT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY...WITH READINGS BELOW NORMAL LIKELY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NW 10-15 KT WITH SOME GUSTS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON TO AROUND 20 KT WHILE BACKING TO W-WSW. WINDS REMAIN AROUND 10 KT TONIGHT. ON SUNDAY...WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 20 KT. EXPECT GUSTS INTO THE UPPER 20 KT TO NEAR 30 KT. CIGS COULD BECOME BROKEN FOR A PERIOD SUNDAY LATE MORNING AND DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST BUT MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. UNCERTAINTY WITH END TIME OF GUSTS WHICH COULD LINGER A FEW HOURS INTO THE EVENING. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. .SUN-TUE...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT ON SUN-SUN EVE...HIGHEST NYC METRO. .WED...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE SHRA. .THU...VFR. && .MARINE...
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W/SW WINDS RAMP UP THIS EVE TO MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. POST-FRONTAL NW WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE FURTHER WITH WIND GUSTS JUST BELOW GALE FORCE ON THE OCEAN WATERS...AND 25 TO 30 KT ELSEWHERE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. GUSTY WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES AND PASSES JUST TO THE SOUTH. WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE SW/S AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TUESDAY...AND WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN. THE WINDS SHIFT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY...THEN DIMINISH AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THURSDAY. ROUGH SEAS SUBSIDE MONDAY. EXPECT OCEAN SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...SEAS BUILD ONCE AGAIN AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THESE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE WINDS SHIFT AND DIMINISH.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DW/PW NEAR TERM...DW SHORT TERM...DW LONG TERM...PW AVIATION...BC MARINE...DW/PW HYDROLOGY...DW/PW

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