Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 211509 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1109 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TRI-STATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN SLOWLY SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH THEN BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION TO CLOSE THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... -SHRA HAVE DISSIPATED THIS MORNING DUE TO NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 700 AND 500 HPA VORTICITY MINIMA MOVING IN FROM THE W-SW. ASSUMING LINE OF CONVECTION OVER W CENTRAL NY/PA HOLDS TOGETHER...IT TIMES INTO FAR WESTERN ZONES BY 4 PM AT THE EARLIEST. SO HAVE SOME SUGGESTION THAT REMAINDER OF TODAY COULD END UP FAIRLY DRY. HOWEVER...MESOSCALE MODELS DO SHOW A WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE LIFTS THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON...SO DID LEAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE AFTERNOON...GENERALLY IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. HOWEVER...IF PRESENT TRENDS HOLD...WILL BE CHANGING TO A DRY FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH NEXT UPDATE AROUND NOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S IN MANY PLACES EXCEPT FAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND FAR SE CT WHERE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BE SLOWER TO DEPART...AND IN THE HIGHER INTERIOR ELEVATIONS. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH MOSTLY DRY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH MIDNIGHT FROM WESTERN LONG ISLAND AND WESTERN CT POINTS WEST. ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTION...THINKING THE SHOWERS WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT THIS FAR. EXPECT CLEARING AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 55-60 INLAND...AND 60-65 IN NYC METRO AND ALONG THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AN UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT LIKELY JUST TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY. AS OF NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST TO START MONDAY WITH THE FRONT EAST OF THE REGION AND DOWNSLOPING NORTHWESTERLY WIND AIDING IN DRYING THE LOWER LEVELS. A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE A COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS BUILD IN MONDAY AND THEN REMAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL...THEN A WARMING TREND SETS UP FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A WEAK COASTAL LOW WILL PASS TO THE SE THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THIS EVENING...AND PASS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. IFR CIGS AT MOST TERMINALS FROM NYC METRO NORTH/WEST ARE SHOWING GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT...AND MOST SHOULD GO MVFR BY 16Z. KHPN STILL LIFR AS OF 15Z AND WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO IMPROVE. TERMINALS TO THE EAST HAVE BKN MVFR CIGS AS OF 15Z. THIS AFTERNOON...BKN MVFR CIGS MAY TAKE UNTIL AT LEAST 18Z TO LIFT TO VFR...AND EVEN THEN CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT MVFR CIGS HOLDING ON LONGER INTO THE AFTERNOON THAN FCST. ISOLD TO WIDELY SCT SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THAT COULD BRIEFLY IMPACT KISP/KGON. THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT WESTERN TERMINALS. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS WITH COLD FROPA. BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KISP/KBDR THIS EVENING...AND LIKELY MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AT KGON...UNTIL COLD FROPA BETWEEN 04Z-08Z FROM WEST TO EAST. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MON THROUGH THU... .MON-MON NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G20KT POSSIBLE...BECOMING N MON NIGHT. .TUE-THU...VFR. && .MARINE... SEAS OF 5 FT HAVE NOT MATERIALIZED ON THE OCEAN WATERS...SO HAVE DROPPED THE SCA FOR TODAY...BUT HAVE LEFT UP ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SEAS BUILD TO AT LEAST 5 FT ON ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT AND MONDAY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF INCREASING WINDS...AND FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SE SWELLS. ELSEWHERE WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME GUSTS DURING MONDAY ON ALL THE FORECAST WATERS MAY REACH 20-25 KT AT TIMES...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN SCA AT THIS TIME. WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT SWELLS COULD KEEP SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AT SCA LEVELS. AFTER THAT...A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... LESS THAN 1/4 INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A DIMINISHING CHANCE OF -SHRA THIS EVENING...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. IT SHOULD THEN BE DRY MON THROUGH SAT. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/MALOIT NEAR TERM...MALOIT/BC SHORT TERM...BC LONG TERM...MET AVIATION...GOODMAN/NV MARINE...MALOIT/BC/MET HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/BC

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