Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 010038 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 838 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW TRACKS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY. WINDY AND COOL ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE NOR`EASTER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE START OF THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE WEDNESDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PASSES ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY BREEZY AND COOLER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING EAST OF THE CAROLINAS REMAINS WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. STRONG SHORTWAVE/VORT DIVES SEWD AND ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE. FOR THIS EVENING...INTERACTION BETWEEN REAR QUAD OF ANTICYCLONIC UPPER JET LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST...APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...AND WEAK SFC TROUGH/H8 TROWAL...IS PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN OVER SOUTHERN CT AND LONG ISLAND. LATEST GUIDANCE IN FULL AGREEMENT ON THE SFC TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL TROWAL MOVING WWD IN TANDEM TOWARD THE NJ COAST TONIGHT...SO EXPECT AREA OF RAIN TO DRIFT SW-WARD WITH IT OVERNIGHT...IMPACTING MAINLY NYC METRO AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR LATE TONIGHT FOR AREAS FARTHER NORTH AND EAST SINCE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN MOIST...WITH CONTINUED APPROACH OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND THE THE NOSE OF A CYCLONIC UPPER JET STREAK LATE TO PROVIDE LIFT. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 30S INLAND...TO THE LOWER AND MID 40S NEAR THE COAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... CLOSED DEEP UPPER LOW PIVOTS EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. AT THE SURFACE...A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. THE INITIAL LOW MOVES JUST E OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK AS THE NEXT LOW FOLLOWS ABOUT 12 HOURS LATER. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE WEST AND THESE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS. NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE SATURDAY...THEN TURN TOWARD THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...FEEL WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS WILL NOT BE MET DURING THE DAY...ALTHOUGH EASTERN LOCATIONS COULD COME CLOSE. A BETTER CHANCE FOR 40 KT GUSTS ARE EXPECTED SAT NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT TOO HIGH...AND IT IS A THIRD PERIOD EVENT. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WIND RELATED HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. CSTL LOCATIONS WILL OBSERVE PERIODS OF RAIN...WITH PROBABILITIES TAPERING DOWNWARD AS YOU HEAD INLAND. WITH CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN CHILLY. EXPECT TEMPS UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50. COLD AIR ADVECTION SAT NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 30S MANY LOCATIONS...EXCEPT AROUND 40 NEAR THE COAST. RAIN TAPERS OFF. A FEW SNOW FLAKES ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN. IN FACT...A FEW SREF MEMBERS OUTPUT MEASURABLE SNOW. HOWEVER...THE CONSENSUS IS FOR PRECIP TO END BEFORE COLDER AIR MOVES IN. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... UPPER PATTERN IS PROGRESSIVE. WINDY FOR SUNDAY AS SFC LOW DEPARTS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOOKING AT 09Z SREF AND VARIOUS 12Z MODEL SOUNDINGS...APPEARS WE`RE SHORT OF 40 KT WIND GUST CRITERIA FOR ADVISORY...BUT SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE 27 KT SUSTAIN CRITERIA IN PLACES...ESPECIALLY AROUND NYC. CLOUDS SUNDAY MORNING COULD GENERATE A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY...BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED THIS IN THE FCST AS NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANCE. DO NOTE THAT THERE ARE 3 MEMBERS IN THE 09Z SREF THAT DO GENERATE MEASURABLE SNOW - SO IT`S SOMETHING TO MONITOR. MAX TEMPS CLOSE TO 12Z MOS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S AND CONSISTENT WITH THE 00Z ENSEMBLE EC/GEFS MOS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE START OF THE WEEK WITH SLOW MODERATION OF TEMPS. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES EXPECTED SOMETIME LATE WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS NEXT SHORT WAVE DIGS IN. POPS REMAIN LOW FOR THIS EVENT AS TIMING REMAINS RATHER UNCERTAIN AND OVERALL PCPN APPEARS LIGHT. 12Z GEFS SUPPORTS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AS PATTERN IS BECOMING NON-LINEAR. NOTE THAT MORE GEFS MEMBERS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF THE FASTER/PROGRESSIVE 12Z ECMWF...THUS HAVE KEPT FRIDAY DRY WITH COOLER/NORTHERLY FLOW. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A SERIES OF LOWS OFFSHORE AND INTENSIFYING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL PRODUCE INCREASING RAIN AND GUSTY N-NE WINDS OF 20-30 KT...MAINLY OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. KSWF WILL LIKELY HAVE LIGHTER RAIN AND WINDS...AS THEY WILL BE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE OFFSHORE LOWS. INITIALLY VFR...BUT MVFR WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS RAIN BECOMES MORE STEADY. RAIN COULD BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES...RESULTING IN PERIODIC IFR...ESPECIALLY EAST OF CITY TERMINALS. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT TIMING/LOCATION OF IFR...EXCLUDED FROM TAFS FOR TIME BEING. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE TO REFINE TIMING OF RAIN AND MVFR WHICH COULD VARY 1-3 HOURS FROM FORECAST. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE TO REFINE TIMING OF RAIN AND MVFR WHICH COULD VARY 1-3 HOURS FROM FORECAST. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE TO REFINE TIMING OF RAIN AND MVFR WHICH COULD VARY 1-3 HOURS FROM FORECAST. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE TO REFINE TIMING OF RAIN AND MVFR WHICH COULD VARY 1-3 HOURS FROM FORECAST. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE TO REFINE TIMING OF RAIN AND MVFR WHICH COULD VARY 1-3 HOURS FROM FORECAST. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE TO REFINE TIMING OF RAIN AND MVFR WHICH COULD VARY 1-3 HOURS FROM FORECAST. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDS IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST. NORTH WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH 25-35 KT GUSTS. .SUNDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 20-30 KT WITH 30-40 KT GUSTS. .SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT. .MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR. .WEDNESDAY...VFR DURING THE DAY...CONDS LOWERING TO MVFR IN -RA AT NIGHT.
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&& .MARINE...
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NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS. THE WATERS REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE WEST AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. OCNL GALE FORCE GUST ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN TONIGHT...AND ARE LIKELY SAT MORNING...WITH STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED BY LATE DAY SAT OR SAT NIGHT. ROUGH SEAS PER 18Z WAVEWATCH SEEM QUITE REASONABLE GIVEN EXPECTED WINDS. GALES CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. WINDS START TO DIMINISH AT NIGHT. BY MONDAY MORNING...ALL WATERS SHOULD BE BELOW GALE FORCE GUSTS...HOWEVER SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL ACROSS THE OCEAN AND EASTERN WATERS THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO REACH ALL OF THE WATERS WHEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REACHES THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE FLOW BACKS TO WSW ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUES SUCH ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB ADVISORY CRITERIA.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY THIS EVENING...THEN MORE OF A STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE ON SAT. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF SAT NIGHT. STILL EXPECT TOTAL RAINFALL TO RANGE FROM AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OVER ORANGE COUNTY AND INTERIOR LOCALES...TO ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER SE CT/E SUFFOLK COUNTY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED DURATION OF PRECIPITATION OF 24 HOURS...NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS ANTICIPATED FROM THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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WITH A STRONG NE FLOW...A FEW LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PORTIONS OF NY HARBOR /SANDY HOOK VICINITY/...THE LONG ISLAND SOUTH SHORE BAYS...AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND WOULD BE THE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE AREAS. PECONIC BAY MAY COME CLOSE IN SPOTS AS WELL.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335- 338-340-345-350-353-355. GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PW/TONGUE NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/PW SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...TONGUE AVIATION...JM MARINE...GOODMAN/PW/TONGUE HYDROLOGY...PW/TONGUE TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PW

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