Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 031719 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 119 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY FOLLOW TONIGHT. A COMPLEX AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE TRI-STATE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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MINOR UPDATES THIS AFTERNOON. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN REMAINS A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE TOO MUCH DUE TO CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... DESPITE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND TO KEEP SKIES CLOUDY ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. WILL KEEP POPS AT CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE. IN ADDITION...WILL ALSO INCLUDE PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST. FOR WEDNESDAY...FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. THIS WILL RESULT IN CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY. WITH UNCERTAIN TIMING OF EACH SHORTWAVE ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS. FOR TEMPERATURES...LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT FALL INTO THE 40S...TO NEAR 50. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ONLY REACH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S. MAV/MET GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WAS USED FOR SHORT TERM TEMPERATURES. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE H5 PATTERN ACROSS NOAM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED BLOCKY PATTERN STARTS OFF THE PERIOD WITH CUTOFF LOW PRES SYSTEMS OVER THE ERN US AND ERN PAC...WITH RIDGING IN BETWEEN AS WELL AS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE CONUS BREAKS DOWN AS IT TRIES TO MOVE EWD WITH A SPLIT FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TRACKS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON FRI AND THEN WEAKENS AS IT CONSOLIDATES WITH A CANADIAN VORTEX OVER THE WEEKEND. AS THE CUTOFF TRACKS TO THE E COAST...WAVES OF LOW PRES WILL RIDE UP THE ERN SEABOARD...AND ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ALL HAVE THE SAME IDEA...THERE ARE MAINLY TIMING...BUT SLIGHT STRENGTH ISSUES. THIS MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE EXACT TIMES OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA AND THUS CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THU WILL BE TOO BAD AS ONCE WAVE DEPARTS AND THE NEXT IS DEVELOPING OVER THE CAROLINAS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME WEAK LIFT ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...SO HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHC POPS BUT IT COULD END UP BEING MOSTLY DRY. THE 03/00Z EC LOOKS MORE LIKE THE 00Z GFS WITH THE STACKED LOW PRES SYSTEM TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST ON FRI AND SHOULD HAVE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF RAIN. DUE TO THE DOWNSTREAM BLOCK OVER THE ATLANTIC...THE SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT...ALTHOUGH AN UPSTREAM KICKER DIVING OUT OF CANADA ON SAT SHOULD HELP. SCHC POPS SAT DUE TO COLD POOL ALOFT AND THEN A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. RIDGING THEN RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL SLOWLY TRACK S OF LONG ISLAND INTO TONIGHT. STEADY RAIN IS NOW MOSTLY OVER ERN CT/LONG ISLAND...BUT POCKETS OF DRIZZLE OR HIT/MISS LIGHT RAIN STILL REMAIN ATTM. JUDGING FROM UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...PREVAILING CONDS NOW APPEAR LESS LIKELY TO IMPROVE TO MVFR AS EARLY AS ORIGINALLY FCST...AND HAVE PUSHED THAT IMPROVEMENT FORWARD IN TIME TO ABOUT 20Z-21Z AT MOST SITES. THAT SAID...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MINOR VARIABILITY FROM TIME TO TIME...WITH BRIEF WINDOWS OF MVFR...BUT THEY WILL BE IMPOSSIBLE TO PINPOINT AND ARE NOT REFLECTED IN TAF. E-NE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON... BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING...AND THEN NE- ENE LESS THAN 10 KT OVERNIGHT. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL FLUCTUATIONS IN FLIGHT CAT POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY. AMD NOT EXPECTED UNLESS PREVAILING CONDS TREND SOLIDLY AWAY FROM FCST. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL FLUCTUATIONS IN FLIGHT CAT POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY. AMD NOT EXPECTED UNLESS PREVAILING CONDS TREND SOLIDLY AWAY FROM FCST. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL FLUCTUATIONS IN FLIGHT CAT POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY. AMD NOT EXPECTED UNLESS PREVAILING CONDS TREND SOLIDLY AWAY FROM FCST. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL FLUCTUATIONS IN FLIGHT CAT POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY. AMD NOT EXPECTED UNLESS PREVAILING CONDS TREND SOLIDLY AWAY FROM FCST. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL FLUCTUATIONS IN FLIGHT CAT POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY. AMD NOT EXPECTED UNLESS PREVAILING CONDS TREND SOLIDLY AWAY FROM FCST. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL FLUCTUATIONS IN FLIGHT CAT POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY. AMD NOT EXPECTED UNLESS PREVAILING CONDS TREND SOLIDLY AWAY FROM FCST. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WED THROUGH SAT... PDS OF RAIN/FOG/LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS. NE WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE FRI-FRI NIGHT.
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&& .MARINE...
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ISSUED SCA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. OVER THE OCEAN...NE WINDS 10-15 KT EXPECTED WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT...BEFORE SUBSIDING IN THE EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT IF SEAS REACH AND HOVER AROUND 5 FT TONIGHT. SCA POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS FOR MARGINAL WINDS AND SEAS LATE WED AND WED NIGHT...WITH SEAS LIKELY LINGERING ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH THU NIGHT. LOW PRES APPROACHING FROM THE S WILL BRING ANOTHER CHC FOR SCA WINDS ON THE OCEAN FRI...BUT MORE LIKELY SEAS...CONTINUING INTO SAT.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE SPOTTY AND LIGHT AS BULK OF THE RAIN MOVES EAST THIS AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND AMOUNTS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... THE HIGHEST SPRING TIDE OF THE YEAR IS APPROACHING WITH THE NEW MOON ON FRIDAY. THE THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL INCREASE DURING THE EVENING HIGH TIDES WED INTO FRI...AND LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND. PERIODIC NE FLOW IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE WAVES WILL PREDICATE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING...BUT THE THREAT IS THERE PARTICULARLY FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND/QUEENS. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353- 355.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/24 NEAR TERM...BC/24/PW SHORT TERM...BC LONG TERM...24 AVIATION...GOODMAN/MALOIT MARINE...BC/24/PW HYDROLOGY...BC/24 TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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