Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 240841 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 441 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE COD WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... THE LAST SPOKE OF VORTICITY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH IT. ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL TAPER OFF BY MID-MORNING. WITH ABUNDANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...PARTIALLY CLEARING LATE IN THE DAY. THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH PRES BUILDING TO THE WEST...AND NW WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. HIGHS TOP OFF IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE URBANIZED PARTS OF NE NJ. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... GRADIENT RELAXES TONIGHT...AND SKIES CLEAR OUT. NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 5-10 MPH...AND TO 5 MPH OR LESS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WITH CAA AND DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...IN THE LOW TO MID 40S MOST ELSEWHERE...AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN NYC. DRY AND MILD ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A COLD FRONT AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE LOCAL AREA FROM AROUND THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST AS THE FRONT APPEARS WILL COME THROUGH DRY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THEN OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. THIS FRONT MAY BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALSO BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE COD WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST...PASSING SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS FROM THE WEST. ALL TERMINALS ARE CURRENTLY VFR EXCEPT KSWF AND KGON. SHOWERS DROPPING DOWN FROM CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER IMPACTING THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 11Z AND 15Z. CIGS COULD DROP TO MVFR AT A FEW PLACES...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO BRING THEM DOWN ATTM. VFR SHOULD RETURN TO ALL TERMINALS BY 15Z...ALTHOUGH CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP A BKN STRATOCU DECK BETWEEN 3500 AND 6000 FT AROUND TODAY. GUSTS HAVE BECOME OCNL AT ALL TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT NW FLOW/GUSTS PICK UP AGAIN AFT SUNRISE...14Z-15Z. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA 12Z-15Z. GUSTS MAY DEVELOP AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN FORECAST. DIRECTIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL MID EVE. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA 12Z-15Z. GUSTS MAY DEVELOP AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN FORECAST. DIRECTIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL MID EVE. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA 12Z-15Z. GUSTS MAY DEVELOP AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN FORECAST. DIRECTIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL MID EVE. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA 12Z-15Z. GUSTS MAY DEVELOP AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN FORECAST. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA 12Z-15Z. GUSTS MAY DEVELOP AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN FORECAST. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA 12Z-15Z. GUSTS MAY DEVELOP AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN FORECAST. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SAT THROUGH TUE...VFR.
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&& .MARINE... LOW PRES EAST OF CAPE COD WILL MOVE NE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25 KT OVER LI SOUND/LI BAYS/NY HARBOR THIS MORNING...AND SCA REMAINS UP THROUGH 6 AM. FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...CONDS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY MIDDAY. TRANQUIL CONDS THEN ON TAP THROUGH SATURDAY. BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. NEXT CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350- 353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FIG/MPS NEAR TERM...MPS SHORT TERM...MPS LONG TERM...FIG AVIATION...24 MARINE...FIG/MPS HYDROLOGY...FIG/MPS

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