Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 260839 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 439 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL BUILD EAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... COLD FRONT JUST ABOUT TO CLEAR FAR EASTERN LI/SE CT WITH A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS TO FOLLOW AS DEW POINTS DROP FROM THE LOWER 70S INTO THE 50S. THIS WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A PERIOD OF DRY...SEASONABLE WEATHER THAT PREVAILS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ALOFT...AN UPPER TROF WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE NE. LACK OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL KEEP A LID ON ANY CONVECTION WITH ONLY SCT AFT CLOUDS...WHICH WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS THE HILLS NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. NW WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO THE W IN THE AFT DUE TO THE FORMATION OF A LEE TROF. A SEABREEZE IS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WHICH IS NEAR SEASONABLE. MET AND MAV MOS WERE NEARLY IDENTICAL. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... NOT MUCH CHANGE HERE...WITH DRY...SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. LOWS WILL BE IN UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S TONIGHT...WITH HIGHS ON THU A BIT COOLER THAN WED. THESE TEMPS ARE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. THE UPPER TROF ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND TRANSLATE EAST. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROFS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH EACH REINFORCING THE COOL..DRY AIR IN PLACE. ONCE AGAIN...PLENTY OF SUN ON THU WITH SOME INSTABILITY CLOUDS IN THE AFT. NW WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL BACK AROUND TO THE W IN THE AFT DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE TROF. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH SOME DIURNAL AFTERNOON CU EACH AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES. IT APPEARS THAT SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WOULD MORE LIKELY FEATURE AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IF ANYTHING POPS UP...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL LIKELY AVERAGE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY. EXCESSIVE HEAT IS NOT EXPECTED. && .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF KGON OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VFR THROUGH 06Z THU. W/NW WINDS BLO 10 KT OVERNIGHT. LIGHT NW WINDS WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD BACK TO W/SW...IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR AT KBDR/KGON BETWEEN 15 AND 19Z...BUT THEN SYNOPTIC FLOW INCREASES AND MAY VEER WINDS 30-40 DEGREES. KJFK IS A TOUGH CALL SO HAVE MAINTAINED A TEMPO FOR A PSEUDO SEABREEZE ALTHOUGH SYNOPTIC WINDS MAY BE TOO STRONG THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KT ALSO EXPECTED AT COASTAL TERMINALS AFT 16Z. WINDS DIMINISH AND BECOME W/NW AGAIN DURING THE EVE. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: DIRECTIONS BACK TO THE LEFT OF 310 MAGNETIC BETWEEN 14Z AND 17Z. LOW CHANCE OF SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTN...BUT MAY IMPACT THE AIRFIELD BETWEEN 22Z AND 00Z. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: DIRECTIONS BACK TO THE LEFT OF 310 MAGNETIC BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: DIRECTIONS MAY REMAIN PRIMARILY LEFT OF 310 MAGNETIC THROUGH 17Z. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS BACK TO THE W BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS BACK TO THE W BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS BACK TO THE W BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z. SEABREEZE MAY IMPACT THE AIRFIELD BETWEEN 22Z AND 01Z. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR. COASTAL SEABREEZES POSSIBLE EACH AFTN. .SUNDAY...VFR.
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&& .MARINE... A W-NW FLOW THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL RESULT IN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. GENERALLY LOOKING AT 10-15 KT ON THE OCEAN...AND LESS THAN 10 KT ON LI SOUND AND THE SURROUNDING BAYS. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATER THROUGH THIS AFT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SUB SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE WATERS. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/DW NEAR TERM...DW SHORT TERM...DW LONG TERM...BC AVIATION...24 MARINE...BC/DW HYDROLOGY...BC/DW

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