Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 240020 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 820 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will move across the Tri-state by around midnight. Strong high pressure then builds in from south-central Canada Saturday through Sunday night, then slides offshore Monday. A cold front will slowly pass through Tuesday into Thursday. High pressure will return for the end of the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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A strong cold front...impinging on northern portions of the Tri-State early this evening...will push south during the evening hours. Isolated shra/tstm development expected along the front in a marginally unstable environment till around midnight. Gusty northerly winds expected in wake of the front...with gusts 15 to 25 mph. Better forcing appears to be post-frontal with right rear quad of 100+ kt northern jet...resulting in scattered shower activity overnight. Best forcing and therefore shra coverage should be across SE CT. Instability should dwindle post- frontal...ending tsra threat after midnight. Without much moisture sources to draw from, rainfall amounts should remain below a quarter of an inch. Isolated shra activity should be pushing south of the region Saturday morning...with increasing subsidence. Temperatures tonight will fall into the middle and upper 50s across the Lower Hudson Valley and Connecticut. Further south, across NYC, Northeast NJ and Long Island, lows will fall into the upper 50s and lower 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Strong high pressure builds into the region behind the cold front. A northerly flow will allow for cooler and drier conditions through the short term. Expect mostly clear skies with temperatures at or a few degrees below normal. High temperatures on Saturday will only reach the upper 60s and lower 70s. With dew points gradually falling through the day into the 40s, it will feel like fall. Saturday night, clear skies and fairly light winds will allow lows to fall into the 40s, across the entire region, other than NYC where lows will reach the low to mid 50s. I would not be surprised if a few outlying areas fell into the upper 30s late Saturday night. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure across the northeast Sunday, will keep the area dry with high temperatures in the mid to upper 60s and lows Sunday night in the upper 40s to lower 50s in the NYC metro area and in the low to mid 40s elsewhere. The high will move offshore, allowing a cold front to approach the area Monday before slowly passing through Tuesday into Wednesday and lingering near the area through Thursday. A southerly flow ahead of the front will likely bring plenty of clouds across the area along with a few showers Monday night. There are still timing uncertainties with the frontal passage for the middle of the week, with some guidance bringing it through on Tuesday and other guidance holding off until Wednesday. Will keep chance pops at this time on Tuesday with slight chance pop on Wednesday and Thursday. High pressure will build in for Friday. Temperatures for the long term period will start out below normal on Monday, then generally run within a few degrees of either side of normal from Monday night through Friday. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A cold front passes through this evening. High pressure builds in behind it overnight. A shower possible tonight with a very low CHC for TS. VFR before midnight, but MVFR ceilings are possible after midnight into Sat morning. Light winds shift NNE behind the front with some gusts 16-20 KT. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information...including hourly TAF wind component fcsts can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Gusts might be only occasional. KLGA TAF Comments: Gusts might be only occasional. KEWR TAF Comments: Gusts might be only occasional. KTEB TAF Comments: Gusts might be only occasional. KHPN TAF Comments: Gusts might be only occasional. KISP TAF Comments: Gusts might be only occasional. .Outlook for 00Z Sunday through Wednesday... .Sunday-Monday...VFR. .Monday night...VFR with possible showers developing. .Tuesday-Tuesday night...Mainly VFR. Chance of showers at times. .Wednesday...Any showers end. VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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The pressure gradient increases tonight, and remains fairly tight into Saturday. This coupled with cold advection behind a passing cold front tonight, should bring gusts to around 25 kt on all waters after midnight, will continue the SCA for all waters starting at midnight. Frequent gusts to 25 kt are likely to subside by around sunrise, so end the SCA on the non-ocean zones at 10z. However, the gusty winds combined with a SE swell should produce seas to around 5 ft across the coastal ocean waters through the day on Saturday - so have the SCA on those waters valid through 22z. The gradient lightens Saturday night with Sub-SCA conditions expected. Seas and waves are expected to be below Small Craft Advisory conditions Sunday through the middle of the week.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... Generally less than a quarter of an inch of rain tonight/early Saturday. Otherwise, it will be mainly dry through Saturday night. An approaching cold front will move across the hydrologic service area during the middle of the week. Precipitation amounts should be light. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ330-335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/Fig NEAR TERM...BC/NV SHORT TERM...BC LONG TERM...Fig AVIATION...JC MARINE...BC/Fig HYDROLOGY...BC/Fig

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