Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 240136 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 936 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front moves south tonight as high pressure builds from the northwest. The high will then remain over the region through the weekend, and pass east early next week. A cold front will impact the region toward the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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Showers have dissipated with loss of heating and passage of shortwave trough. Best lift is passing south across the Middle Atlantic so do not expect any new activity to develop overnight. Frontal boundary still remaining nearly stationary across the southern portion of the area, but should sink south overnight. Skies will clear as the front moves south and shortwave trough passes offshore. Lows will range from the mid 60s in the NYC/NJ metro to the low 60s near the coast. Temperatures in the interior and Long Island Pine Barrens will fall into the 50s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will continue to build in on Friday. Another mid level trough will pass to the south on Friday which could lead to a period of mostly cloudy skies in the afternoon across NYC metro, but expect dry conditions. High temps are a couple of degrees above the warmer MOS guidance numbers, with lower/mid 80s in most places, and upper 70s along south facing shorelines out east. Low temps Friday night should be similar to those forecast for tonight. There is a moderate risk for rip current development today on Atlantic facing beaches on Friday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure builds in from the north and west on Saturday and slowly moves overhead on Sunday before moving offshore on Monday. Temperatures this weekend will slowly warm into the 80s each day, possibly touching 90 north and west of NYC Sunday and Monday. In addition, a light pressure gradient and the combination of warm land temp and relative cooler water temps will likely result in afternoon seabreezes. Highs along the coast may only reach the lower 80s. A cold front approaches on Monday, slowly working its way across the Northeast from Monday night through Tuesday night. Cold front should be clear of the region by Wednesday. Will continue to carry chance POP for showers and thunderstorms for the passage of this front. Drier weather returns for the end of the week as high pressure builds back over the region. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Low pressure passes to the south tonight and Friday as high pressure builds to the north. VFR through the TAF period. Shower activity to the north and west this evening has dissipated and any activity stays to our southwest overnight. Light S/SE winds go to light and variable into the overnight. After 6-8z, expect winds to become north/northeast with speeds increasing towards 12z Friday morning. Winds veer to the east, then more southeast during the afternoon. South coastal terminals more likely to see southeast winds sooner during the afternoon. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/ KJFK TAF Comments: Northeast winds increase by 12z Friday morning. Winds veer to the east, then further to the southeast by afternoon. KLGA TAF Comments: Northeast winds increase by 12z Friday morning. Winds veer to the east, then further to the southeast by afternoon. Timing of southeast winds may vary by 1-2 hours compared to neighboring terminals. KEWR TAF Comments: Northeast winds increase by 12z Friday morning. Winds veer to the east by afternoon. KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. .OUTLOOK FOR 0Z Saturday THROUGH TUESDAY... .Friday Night-Sunday night...VFR. .Monday...Mainly VFR with a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms late. .Monday night-Tuesday...Sub-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Winds and waves will remain below small craft advisory levels through early next week. The ocean waters west of Fire Island Inlet could see some wind gusts close to 25 kt Friday morning. Also, some onshore wind gusts to 20 kt are possible both Saturday and Sunday afternoon as sea breezes develop. && .HYDROLOGY... No significant rainfall through Monday. The next chance for precip will be Monday night through Tuesday night as a cold front passes through. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Goodman/MPS NEAR TERM...DS SHORT TERM...Goodman LONG TERM...MPS AVIATION...JE/NV MARINE...Goodman/MPS HYDROLOGY...Goodman/MPS is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.