Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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987 FXUS61 KOKX 201346 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 946 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Tropical cyclone Jose slowly moves south and east of the area today and will remain offshore through Thursday. High pressure builds over the area Thursday and remains in place through early next week as Jose weakens and slowly meanders to our southeast. Please refer to National Hurricane Center products for more details on Jose. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... The Tropical Storm Watch for Suffolk County has been cancelled. Jose is located about 200 mi south and east of the Long Island coast and will continue moving slowly to the northeast away from the coast through the day. Impacts will be minimal on land as the majority of showers will stay offshore. A few bands of showers are attempting to graze the south fork of Long Island, but thinking is these will stay over the waters. Some of the showers could work there way inland this morning across eastern Long Island and southeast Connecticut. However, increasing subsidence on the backside of Jose and from building upper ridging should prevent much progress westward. Gusty northerly winds will continue today with the strongest gusts, 30-35 mph across Long Island. No tropical storm force sustained winds are expected on land. The main concern today will be from high surf and dangerous rip currents at ocean beaches. Minor to locally moderate coastal flooding Mostly cloudy to overcast skies will continue across eastern Long Island and southeast Connecticut through the day. Further west, at least partial clearing is anticipated, especially this afternoon. Above normal temperatures are forecast despite the cloud cover with highs reaching the middle and upper 70s for most locations and the lower 80s in NE NJ and the NYC metro. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... Jose will meander south and east of Cape Cod tonight into Thursday. Winds will weaken during this time, but still remain gusty across Long Island and southeast Connecticut. This is where the tightest pressure gradient will be located between high pressure to the north and west and Jose offshore. Otherwise, skies will continue to gradually clear overnight and should largely be Mostly sunny on Thursday. Deep upper ridging builds to the north and west as Jose meanders offshore. Drier low level air should work in on Thursday as well with dew points falling into the upper 50s and lower 60s. Temperatures however will be quite warm, reaching the middle 80s in NE NJ and NYC metro with upper 70s and lower 80s elsewhere. Dangerous rip currents will likely continue at Atlantic ocean beaches on Thursday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Lots of uncertainty in the long term continues. Most of this is due to the uncertainty surrounding Jose`s ultimate track and strength. Stay tuned for official track and intensity forecasts regarding Jose from the National Hurricane Center. For now it appears that Jose and/or remnants will meander about 250- 300 miles to the southeast of Montauk Thursday through this weekend. This would likely keep the associated rain shield just off to the east. This combined with high pressure over the area will then likely keep us dry through the period with above-normal temperatures as heights build aloft. It still may be on the breezy side, particularly on Thursday and Friday. For Monday and Tuesday, will continue to keep both periods dry for consistency while global models attempt to sort out the details of Jose from run to run. Rough surf will continue to be likely at least through the end of this week and may continue into early next week. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Tropical cyclone Jose will remain off southern New England coast today. Bands of showers pivoting to the east may occasionally move into KGON. Intensity is mainly light although vsby could briefly drop to MVFR. Otherwise...ceilings are mainly VFR to MVFR this morning, with VFR conditions more likely for city terminals and points north and west. Ceilings improve to MVFR- VFR this afternoon for eastern terminals. Gusty N flow will gradually shift to the NNW. Gusts will continue in the 20-30 kt range at the city terminals, and closer to 25-35 kt at eastern terminals. Winds gradually decrease through the evening. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Ceilings may vary between 025-035 this morning. The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is GREEN, which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud. KLGA TAF Comments: Ceilings may vary between 025-035 this morning. The afternoon KLGA haze potential forecast is GREEN, which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud. KEWR TAF Comments: Ceilings may vary between 025-035 this morning. The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN, which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud. KTEB TAF Comments: Ceilings may vary between 025-035 this morning. KHPN TAF Comments: Ceilings may vary between 025-035 this morning. KISP TAF Comments: Gusts may be stronger than forecast. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .Wednesday night...VFR. .Thursday-Friday...VFR. Gusty N winds around 20 kt east of city terminals. .Saturday-Sunday...VFR.
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&& .MARINE... Jose slowly moves offshore and will meander through Thursday while weakening. Stay tuned to the National Hurricane Center for official track and intensity forecasts for Jose. Changes to marine headlines with this forecast package include the cancellation of the Tropical Storm Watch for the bays of Long Island. A small craft advisory is now in effect for these waters. The conversion of Tropical Storm Warning on the ocean waters west of Fire Island Inlet to an SCA occurred earlier this morning. This SCA goes through Thursday. The SCA on the eastern Sound was also extended through tonight. The strongest winds are expected to be east of Fire Island inlet where tropical storm force winds remain possible through today. Winds will gradually weaken late today through tonight, but should remain above SCA levels across the eastern Sound, eastern LI Bays and ocean waters east of Moriches inlet. These winds may remain elevated east of Moriches inlet through Thursday. Ocean seas will gradually subside today through tonight. They will remain elevated into Thursday due to lingering swell from offshore Jose. Waves may also be close to 5 ft across the far eastern Sound today into tonight. Uncertainty regarding winds and seas increases from Thursday night through Sunday due mostly to the uncertainty of Jose`s eventual track and strength during this period. What seems more probable is that ocean seas remain at SCA levels due to a lingering swell. For now, it appears that gusts over 25 kt would be possible mainly east of moriches inlet and nearby the Race and Gardiner`s bay for Thursday and Friday before winds subside further and likely remain below advisory criteria through the weekend. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic problems are anticipated through early next week. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Rising water levels combined with incoming energetic swells from Jose, will bring dangerous surf of 8 TO 10 ft early today. This will cause widespread dune erosion (waves hitting base of dunes), and localized washovers (wave overtopping dunes) through today. With good confidence in track of Jose 1500-200 miles to the SE of Long Island, have weighted forecast towards most likely scenario. This points to potential for 1 1/2 to 2 ft of surge during the morning high tide cycle, which would result in widespread minor to moderate coastal flooding. These surge values will result in 2 to 2 1/2 ft inundation in our most vulnerable locations along the southern bays of LI/NYC and Peconic/Gardiners Bay, with generally 1 to locally 2 ft across other vulnerable coastal areas. Wave action on top of elevated waters levels will exacerbate impacts along the beachfront. High surf will fall this afternoon into tonight, but remain rough through the week. Additionally...minor coastal impacts are likely to continue across vulnerable locales through the remainder of the week as Jose sits about 250 miles SE of the region as Ekman pumping keeps elevated water levels along the coast. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for CTZ009. NY...Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT today for NYZ074-075-178- 179. Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for NYZ071-078>081-177. High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075- 080-081-178-179. High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for NYZ075-080-081- 178-179. Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT Thursday for NYZ080-178-179. NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT today for NJZ006-106-108. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ335- 338-345. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ330-340. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ355. Tropical Storm Warning for ANZ350-353.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/DS NEAR TERM...MET SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...BC/JC AVIATION...JP MARINE...BC/DS/MET HYDROLOGY...BC/DS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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