Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 060836 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 436 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE TODAY. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT...THEN MOVES INTO THE TRI-STATE ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT STALLS JUST TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE HAS TS AXIS SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA TODAY. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP THINGS DRY. HOWEVER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR SPRINKLE CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT OVER FAR W/SW ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY. FOR HIGHS TODAY A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 975-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...ECS/MET/MAV GUIDANCE...AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... AS DEEP LAYERED RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLIDE OFFSHORE...SHOULD MOISTEN LOW LEVELS SUFFICIENTLY TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MAINLY THE NW 1/2 OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. FOR LOWS TONIGHT...A BLEND OF MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FORCING AHEAD OF 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY WARRANTS LIKELY POPS OVER THE NW 1/3 OF THE CWA AND CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. NOTING FORECAST CAPES GENERALLY OF 1000-1500 J/KG - SLIGHTLY LOWER OVER E LONG ISLAND/FAR SE CT...SHOWALTERS FORECAST TO BE MAINLY 0 TO 2 INDICATING LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AS WELL WARRANTS A CHANCE OF THUNDER AS WELL. HOWEVER WITH BULK 0-6 KM SHEAR OF ONLY 20-25 KT...RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS FAIRLY LOW BUT CANNOT 100 PERCENT BE RULED OUT. FOR HIGHS TUESDAY USED A BLEND OF ECS/MET/MAV GUIDANCE...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975 TO 900 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO UPPER STEERING FLOW...SO IT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL TIMING IS SIMILAR WITH FRONTAL PROGRESSION EAST. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS/TSTMS TUESDAY NIGHT DEPART OR WEAKEN. MOS TEMPS ARE CLOSE...AND SEASONABLY WARM READINGS ARE EXPECTED. THE COLD FRONT REMAINS OVER THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY...AND PROBABLY CLEARS THE EASTERN ZONES BY MIDNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE COVERAGE FOR NOW...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SLOW MOVING ACTIVITY...WITH PW OVER 2 INCHES ALONG THE FRONT. THE CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAIN AND TRAINING OF CELLS COULD LEAD TO AT LEAST MINOR URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS FORECAST THE FRONT TO SETTLE TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY...WITH SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT. BELIEVE THE LOW PASSES TO THE SOUTH BY THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH A DRY FORECAST THEREAFTER...OR UNTIL POSSIBLY LATER SUNDAY AS NEXT FRONT APPROACHES. TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BLENDED FORECAST DATABASE WITH NEW GRIDDED MOS AND WPC GUIDANCE. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. VFR. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUTLYING TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES. WIND WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE INLAND. SE-S SEA BREEZES 8-10 KT DEVELOP AT THE TERMINALS MONDAY AFTERNOON AT ALL BUT KSWF. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOCALIZED IFR CIGS TO THE EAST AT KFOK SHOULD HAVE NO TERMINAL IMPACT. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUE THROUGH FRI... .LATE TONIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE VIA LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG AND SCT SHOWERS. .TUE...CHANCE OF TSTMS WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AT TIMES... ESPECIALLY FROM NYC METRO NORTH/WEST. .TUE NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CONDS LIKELY IN FOG. .WED...CHANCE OF TSTMS WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AT TIMES. .THU-FRI...CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
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&& .MARINE...
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A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP WINDS 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 10-15 KT WINDS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT IN THE NY BIGHT REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE. SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY AS WELL. PATCHY FOG COULD IMPACT THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...BRING VISIBILITIES TO 1 TO 3 NM...AND POSSIBLY BELOW 1 NM AT TIMES. SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THEN AS THE FRONT PASSES NEARBY AND STALLS...WINDS SHOULD LIGHTEN AS THEY SHIFT TO THE NW BRIEFLY. WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE...THE WINDS MAY SHIFT BACK AROUND TO THE S/SW THURSDAY. AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS MAY BECOME VARIABLE...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS LOW. OVERALL...SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. OCEAN SEA FORECASTS WERE BASED ON FORECAST DATABASE AND NEW WAVE WATCH OUTPUT...WHICH SEEMED QUITE REASONABLE. WIND CLIMATOLOGY WAS THE BASIS FOR SEA/WAVE FORECAST FOR THE NON OCEAN WATERS SURROUNDING LONG ISLAND.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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GENERALLY AROUND 1/4 INCH OR LESS OF RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS GENERALLY W OF THE HUDSON RIVER. HOWEVER...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 1.75-2 INCHES...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WOULD BE POSSIBLE IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH SLOW MOVING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS SUCH...AT LEAST LOCALIZED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING...WITH A LOW CHANCE OF FLASH FLOODING...IS A POSSIBILITY WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO FROM FAIRFIELD AND NASSAU COUNTIES ON WEST...INCLUDING NYC.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/PW NEAR TERM...MALOIT SHORT TERM...MALOIT LONG TERM...PW AVIATION...GOODMAN MARINE...MALOIT/PW HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/PW

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