Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 241628 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1128 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT AND WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH LATE THIS WEEK. THE HIGH MOVES OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...THEN OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... FORECAST ON TRACK. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE EXPECT TO FRESHEN THE HOURLY PROFILES BASED ON LATEST OBS. OTHERWISE...DRY AND COLD WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20. WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM 0 TO 10 ABOVE. MANY LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS WERE SET THIS MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT OR THE RECORD EVENT REPORTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES TONIGHT AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT LIFTS NE TO NEAR CAPE COD BY WED MORNING. ALL SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE FORKS OF LI AND NEW LONDON COUNTY SHOULD SEE AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW FROM THIS. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY/CAT TONIGHT AS A RESULT. AMOUNTS DECREASE TO THE W. FLURRIES MAY BE SEEN IN NYC...BUT NO ACCUM IS EXPECTED THERE. WAA STRENGTHENS TONIGHT WITH TEMPS HOLDING STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING AS A RESULT. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MET IN THE EVE. ANY PCPN SHOULD BE OVER BY DAYBREAK WITH MOSUNNY SKIES RETURNING. HIGHS WILL REBOUND INTO THE 30S WED...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE IN THE DAY WITH COLD CONDITIONS RETURNING. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. WEAK UPPER IMPULSE TRACKS TO THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY TRIGGER SOME LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND. FRONTAL SYSTEM BEHIND THE HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY...AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. WINTRY MIX AHEAD OF AND WITH THE FRONT IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME PER FORECAST PROFILES...AND EXPECTED TEMPS ALOFT. TEMPS...FOLLOWED MOS BLEND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH LEANED TOWARD COLDER MAV NUMBERS WITH CHILLY NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING. THEREAFTER...BLENDED 00Z WPC NUMBERS WITH PREVIOUS DATABASE AND NEW 00Z GRIDDED MOS. EXPECT TEMPS TO RUN AROUND 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY-FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY...TEMPS AVERAGE AROUND 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A GRADUAL WARMUP IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES...AND 5 DEGREES BELOW MONDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING MOVES EAST THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5 TO 10 KT. WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO THE SW AFTER 00Z...AND EVENTUALLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER 09Z. VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT A PERIOD OF BKN 015-025 CIGS POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW MOVES INTO THE THE TERMINALS EAST OF NYC AFTER 03Z. WILL INCLUDE A PROB30 GROUP FOR JFK AND LGA FOR LIGHT SNOW AFTER 03Z. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC CIGS 015-020 STARTING AROUND 21-23Z. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC CIGS 015-020 STARTING AROUND 22-00Z. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC CIGS 015-020 STARTING AROUND 23-01Z. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC CIGS 015-020 STARTING AROUND 23-01Z. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC CIGS 015-020 STARTING AROUND 22-00Z. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC CIGS 010-020 STARTING AROUND 19-21Z. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WED THROUGH SAT... .WED...VFR. W WINDS 10-15G15-20KT IN THE AFTERNOON. .WED NIGHT-THU...VFR. .THU NIGHT-FRI...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WITH MVFR CONDS MAINLY FROM LATE NIGHT INTO THE MORNING. .FRI NIGHT-SAT...VFR. && .MARINE... TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. MARGINAL CONDS MAY BE MET ON THE OCEAN WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO WED WITH A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT. AFTER COLLAB WITH PHI...HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANOTHER ADVSY SINCE IT LOOKS MARGINAL AND NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE...BUT REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. THE NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES FRIDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH FINALLY TRACKS NEAR THE AREA SATURDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... MAINLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL PERHAPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON LOCAL AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS AS TEMPS REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE. && .CLIMATE... HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY FEBRUARY 24. EWR.....18/1934 BDR.....27/1993 NYC.....15/1914 LGA.....26/1993 JFK.....27/1967 ISP.....26/1993 * ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION... MARINE... HYDROLOGY... CLIMATE...

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