Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 201747 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 147 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL SOUTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK IN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY... FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE LATER IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SHOWERS STILL HAVE YET TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORKS...SO KEPT IN LIKELY POP EARLY. OVC SKIES GIVING WAY TO SUNSHINE HAS ALREADY LED TO CU DEVELOPMENT FROM NYC METRO NORTH/WEST...AND EXPECT THE SAME TO OCCUR FARTHER EAST...SO SKIES SHOULD BE PTCLDY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST COMBINED WITH THE LOW PASSING TO THE SE WILL KEEP WINDS FROM THE E/NE. THUS...LOOKING AT ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY FOR NEARLY LATE JULY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. BUMPED HIGHS CLOSER TO 80 NORTH/WEST OF NYC...WITH ONLY MID 70S FOR MOST OF LONG ISLAND AND SE CT. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER TROF AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT WITH PLENTY OF SUN FOR MON WITH WITH TEMPS MODERATING JUST A TAD...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE IMMEDIATE COAST SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER. LOWS WILL MODERATE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S MON MORNING...TO MAINLY THE LOWER AND MID 60S TUE MORNING. THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COULD SET OFF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AWAY FROM THE COAST...NORTHEAST NJ AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. RIGHT NOW...ONLY THINKING SLIGHT CHANCE WITH THE AIR MASS BEING CAPPED. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS THE PICTURE FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL WITH THE APPROACH OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CANADA. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WARMER...MORE HUMID AIR MASS. THIS WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AS INSTABILITY...MOISTURE...AND LIFT LOOK BETTER. TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND NORMAL ON TUESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME SMALL TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE WED INTO THU. THE DIFFERENCES RIGHT NOW SEEM TO HINGE ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND LOCATION OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COLD FRONT. ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION LOOKS POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST. WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST OUT OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. DAYTIME CUMULUS OVER AREAS (WEST OF KISP-KBDR) WHERE HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OUT THIS AFTN IS GENERATING LOCALIZED CIGS IN THE 030-035 LAYER. THESE CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. OVERNIGHT...COASTAL STRATUS IS EXPECTED. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENT AND HEIGHT OF THIS DECK. IFR IS POSSIBLE. ANY STRATUS QUICKLY BURNS OFF ON MONDAY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR. GENERALLY LIGHT EASTERLY TO EAST SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW AROUND 10 KT INTO THIS EVENING. KLGA WILL LIKELY HOLD ON TO THE EAST NORTHEAST...SLIGHTLY STRONGER...FLOW OFF THE LONG ISLAND SOUND THROUGH SUNSET. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .MON AFTN-TUE MORNING...VFR. COASTAL IFR STRATUS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. LT SFC WND WITH COASTAL SEA BREEZES. .TUE-WED. VFR. ISOLATED TSTM NW OF THE NY METRO LATE EACH DAY. .WED NGT-THU...MVFR IN SCT (PERHAPS NUMEROUS) SHRA AND TSTMS AND A COLD FROPA. .FRI...VFR.
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&& .MARINE... RAISED SCA FOR THE ERN WATERS AS PERSISTENT E-NE FLOW 15-20 KT GUSTING CLOSE TO 25 KT KEEPS OCEAN SEAS AT 5 FT...ESPECIALLY FARTHER OFFSHORE. SEAS SHOULD DROP BELOW 5 FT SOME TIME THIS EVENING AS WINDS SLACKEN. THEN SUB-SCA CONDS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THU NIGHT. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. && .EQUIPMENT...
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CENTRAL PARK ASOS (KNYC) HAS RETURNED TO NORMAL SERVICE.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350- 353. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DW NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/DW SHORT TERM...DW LONG TERM...JP/DW AVIATION...MPS/TONGUE MARINE...MPS HYDROLOGY...DW EQUIPMENT...

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