Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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478 FXUS61 KOKX 181756 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 156 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...AND THEN A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN IN CONTROL THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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STRATUS REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT ACROSS EASTERN CT...WHERE SOME CLEARING HAS OCCURRED. TEMPERATURES THERE HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 70S. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. TEMPERATURES MAY JUMP A FEW DEGREES IF ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A MOSTLY DRY DAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MOVES TO THE EAST THIS EVENING AS THE STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA LIFTS TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT. WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...AND WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY FROM WEST TO EAST...WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS FOR THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA THIS EVENING...AND THEN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTH. WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP ACROSS LONG ISLAND...SOUTHERN CT...AND COASTAL AREAS...AND PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP ELSEWHERE...AND FOG WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER A WARMER AND MILDER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SE CT...AND IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS NYC...INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CT...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. WITH A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY... SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY WITH SCATTERED TSTMS DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL LOWER IN THE EVENING...AND THEN SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE GLOBAL MODELS WITH LARGELY CONFLUENT FLOW EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS TO BUILD EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO JUST OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST NEXT SUN. THIS WILL ALSO MEAN A DRY FORECAST WITH TEMPS NEARLY SEASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SHORT WAVE OVER THE MIDWEST DAMPENS AS IT MOVES OUT INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEY WED INTO THU. THE NAM WRF IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION AS IT BRING IN CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SUPPRESSED SOUTH WITH THE SYSTEM...BUT DO BRING IN SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ON THU. PREFERRED TO STAY DRY AT THIS TIME. THEREAFTER...A REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE FRI. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED SINCE THIS MORNING WITH MVFR NOW AT MOST TERMINALS. CIGS DROP TO IFR AFTER SUNSET...FIRST AT KJFK AND KISP. LIFR/IFR CONDS ARE THEN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN LOW CLOUDS...FOG...AND -SHRA. NE-E WINDS 10-15 KT CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...THEN BECOME SE-ESE AT 5-10 KT TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT TUESDAY MORNING. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR CIGS/VISBY THIS AFTERNOON. AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 20 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. TIMING OF LOWERING CIGS/VISBY THIS EVE MAY BE OFF BY +/- AN HOUR OR TWO. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR CIGS/VISBY THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING OF LOWERING CIGS/VISBY THIS EVE MAY BE OFF BY +/- AN HOUR OR TWO. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CIGS/VISBY THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING OF LOWERING CIGS/VISBY THIS EVE MAY BE OFF BY +/- AN HOUR OR TWO. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CIGS/VISBY THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING OF LOWERING CIGS/VISBY THIS EVE MAY BE OFF BY +/- AN HOUR OR TWO. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CIGS/VISBY THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING OF LOWERING CIGS/VISBY THIS EVE MAY BE OFF BY +/- AN HOUR OR TWO. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: A PERIOD OF VFR IS POSSIBLE AFTER 19Z. TIMING OF LOWERING CIGS/VISBY THIS EVE MAY BE OFF BY +/- AN HOUR OR TWO. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .TUESDAY AFTERNOON-TUESDAY NIGHT...IMPROVEMENTS TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON. VFR AT NIGHT. CHANCE SHRA/TSRA IN THE EVE. .WEDNESDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE. .THURSDAY-FRIDAY...VFR. NW G20KT POSSIBLE FRIDAY. .SATURDAY...VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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A WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL KEEP CONDS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT FOG TO RE-DEVELOP TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WED THROUGH FRI WITH A RELATIVELY LIGHT FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE AREA. NW GUSTS MAY REACH AROUND 20 KT WED INTO WED NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP OCEAN SEAS BELOW 5 FT.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... BETWEEN 2/10 AND 3/10 INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. LITTLE OR NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPS/DW NEAR TERM...BC/MPS/DW SHORT TERM...MPS LONG TERM...DW AVIATION...DS MARINE...MPS/DW HYDROLOGY...MPS/DW

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