Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 141951 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 351 PM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A wave of low pressure passes well east of the area this evening, followed by weak high pressure. A cold front approaches on Sunday and passes through the area late Sunday night. High pressure will build over the region for the rest of the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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A broad upper ridge over the Southeast and Mid Atlantic states begins to give way to an approaching upper trough over the Midwest. This will result in a strengthening, deep-layered SW flow aloft and unseasonably warm and humid conditions for the remainder of the weekend. At the surface, the wave of low pressure that brought rain to eastern portions of the tri-state area on Saturday will pass well east of New England. In its wake, weak high pressure will build across the area tonight. The combination of moist low- levels and light winds will result in low clouds and areas of fog forming during the overnight hours. There is some uncertainty on how dense the fog gets and this may depend on how much clearing the area sees into early this evening. A dense fog advisory may be needed later tonight. Additionally, with the strengthening low-level southerly above the surface, drizzle will be possible as well. Used a blend of the MOS with lows of 55 to 60, which is 10 to 15 degrees above normal.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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After some morning fog/drizzle, skies clear out with mostly sunny skies by afternoon. Sunday will be well above normal with temperatures generally in the mid to upper 70s. Gusty S-SW winds may get up to 30 mph in the afternoon. An upper trough and cold front will impact the area Sunday night with increasing clouds and a chance of showers. The best chance may actually be across eastern areas due to the availability of deeper moisture. Instability though is weak, so no thunderstorms are forecast. Rainfall amounts also look to be light with a lack of deep forcing. The cold front passes east of the area by daybreak Monday with strong cold advection and gusty NW winds.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A sprawling area of high pres will build from the w on Mon, then set up over the area thru Sat. A residual shwr is possible Mon mrng, otherwise it will be a breezy day with mixing likely abv h85. This will allow for temps to peak in the 60s. For Mon ngt, it appears the winds will stay up, especially along the coasts, limiting temp drops. A blend of guidance was used. If winds decouple, fcst temps will need to be lowered and there could be some patchy frost in the normally colder outlying spots. The high builds in for the rest of the week keeping the area dry and mostly clear. A blend of the guidance was used for temps, with readings quickly shooting abv average from midweek on.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A weak wave of low pressure passes east of the region this afternoon, then moves northeast this evening. A cold front approaches late Sunday. MVFR/IFR conditions in stratus. There may be a brief period of VFR conditions late this afternoon for NYC/NJ terminals. Any improvement may only occur for a few hours, then MVFR/IFR conditions in stratus and fog return once again tonight. Amendments may be needed this afternoon for timing of flight categories. Winds will remain light and variable through the afternoon and first part of tonight. Winds then become southerly, remaining light through the early morning, then gradually increase during the late morning and afternoon hours. Gusts into the 20 kt range is likely for the NYC terminals by Sunday afternoon. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .Sunday afternoon and Sunday Night...Improving to VFR, then chance of showers at night with MVFR conditions. SW winds G25KT in afternoon and evening...shifting to NW Sun Night. .Monday...Chc early AM showers and MVFR/IFR, becoming VFR. NW winds G20-25KT. .Tuesday-Thursday...VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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Marginal SCA seas will continue on the ocean waters tonight due to a SE swell. SCA winds and seas expected to build on the ocean in a strengthening SW flow ahead of an approaching cold front Sunday aft/eve, and then likely with the NW flow in its wake late Sun Night into Mon morning. SCA gusts are likely on all waters, pre and post frontal. Winds and seas will remain at sca lvls Mon, then subside Mon ngt. Winds and seas will then remain blw sca lvls for the rest of the week.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic issues expected through the end of next week. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon Sunday to 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ330-335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ350-353-355.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC/DW NEAR TERM...DW SHORT TERM...DW LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...BC MARINE...JMC/DW HYDROLOGY...JMC/DW

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