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000
FXUS61 KOKX 210228
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1028 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in through early next week before giving
way to a frontal system on Wednesday. High pressure then builds
in through Friday, followed by another frontal system next
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Cold front has passed offshore with gusty NNW winds of 20 to
30 mph just behind it. These winds will gradually diminish
through the early morning hours, becoming WNW at 10 mph or
less.

Otherwise, high pressure over the central states begins to
build in tonight. Mostly clear skies are expected along with
colder and drier air. Temperatures should fall into the middle
30s inland and upper 30s and lower 40s most elsewhere. There may
be some patchy frost for inland areas, but dew points in the
20s should prevent any widespread frost development. Therefore,
no Frost Advisory has been issued at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure and dry conditions will prevail Sunday through
Monday. A large upper level low will settle over southeast
Canada on Sunday carving out broad troughing across the eastern
US. A southern stream shortwave along the base of the trough
will develop a wave of low pressure along the southeast coast
through the day. A strong upper jet streak is also expected to
lie near New England, which will help to draw up middle and
upper level moisture to the north of the low. As a result,
increasing clouds will occurs Sunday morning leading to mostly
cloudy conditions for the area. Highs will end up below normal
in the 50s.

The jet streak pushes east Sunday evening allowing the southern
low to move out into the Atlantic. Clouds will decrease from
northwest to southeast leading to mostly clear skies overnight.
Another chilly night is in store with lows in the middle to
upper 30s inland and lower 40s closer to the coast. A dry
atmosphere will lead to sunny conditions on Monday with highs a
bit warmer than Sunday, but still below normal in the lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Zonal flow aloft for Monday night and Tuesday with surface high
pressure in control of the weather, keeping us dry through the
period. Possibly some patchy frost early Tuesday morning well
NW of the city and in the Pine Barrens. High temperatures
Tuesday afternoon will be a few degrees below normal.

500mb trough digs towards the Northeast Tuesday night into
Wednesday, with a surface low center passing to our north. Shower
chances begin late at night, then showers become likely on
Wednesday with the passage of an associated cold front. High
pressure then begins to build back in behind the storm system
Thursday night and remains in control through Friday. Dry during
this time, and high temperatures both days will be a few
degrees below normal.

Models differ on the timing of the next low pressure system, which
could impact the weather next weekend. They at least agree that
a surface low heading into the Great Lakes will run into mid-
level ridging. This will help weaken the system and keep its
center to our north this weekend, with the best chance of
showers arriving with the leading warm front and trailing cold
front. Will go with a chance of showers starting mainly Saturday
afternoon, but we might be able to get through the daytime
hours of Saturday without seeing any showers. High temperatures
remaining a few degrees below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Cold front has passed offshore. High pressure will build in
from the west overnight. A surface trough sets up across the
area on Sunday.

VFR. Gusty NW winds of 20 to 30 kt will diminish from 03Z to
05Z, becoming WNW at less than 10 kt. On Sunday, winds back to
the W increasing 10-15kt G15-20kt. Coastal locations may back to
the WSW if not SW. Confidence in a true seabreeze is low due to
the strength of the westerly winds in the mixed layer.

     ....NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

A few gusts up to 30 kt this evening.

Gusts may be more occasional on Sunday.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday Night-Tuesday: VFR.

Wednesday: MVFR or lower with showers. S winds 10-15G20-25kt
in the afternoon/evening, becoming NW at night.

Thursday: VFR. Gusty NW flow.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Following a cold frontal passage this evening, there will be a
few NW gusts close to 25 kt, then gradually subsiding overnight.
High pressure will build tonight through Monday. Winds and seas
are expected to remain below SCA levels given the relatively
weak pressure gradient.

High pressure should keep conditions at sub-advisory levels
through at least Tuesday morning, then gusts to 25 kt could be
possible on the ocean waters west of Fire Island Inlet in the
afternoon. The pressure gradient tightens with slowly increasing
winds Tuesday night into Wednesday, increasing the likelihood
of SCA conditions across all ocean waters during this period.
Seas on a southerly flow build up to around 5 ft on Wednesday. A
cold front then passes through, and SCA conds will still be
likely on the ocean Wednesday night. Offshore winds diminish on
Thursday along with subsiding seas. Sub-advisory conditions are
therefore anticipated by the end of the day.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/DS/DW
NEAR TERM...DS/DW
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JC/DS/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DS