Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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062 FXUS61 KOKX 181931 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 331 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...AND THEN A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN IN CONTROL THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MOVES TO THE EAST THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW THE STATIONARY FRONT SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA TO LIFT NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ACROSS NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES...AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP ACROSS LONG ISLAND...SOUTHERN CT...AND COASTAL AREAS...AND PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP ELSEWHERE...AND FOG WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY DROP INTO THE 50S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN A WARMER AND MILDER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SE CT...AND IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S ACROSS NYC...INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CT...AND IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 ACROSS NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. WITH A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY... SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY WITH SCATTERED TSTMS DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL LOWER IN THE EVENING...AND THEN SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY. A SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH PASS THROUGH...BUT THIS SHOULD DO NOTHING MORE THAN KICK UP THE WINDS AND PRODUCE A FEW CLOUDS...PARTLY CLOUDY AND BREEZY. MAV AND NAM GUIDANCE DIFFER BY ABOUT 4-5 DEGREES FOR HIGH TEMPS. SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE LOOKS TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE 850MB FORECAST AND A MODERATE DOWNSLOPE FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS THURSDAY DRY...AND PROBABLY KEEPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY DRY AS WELL. SOME GUIDANCE BRUSHES THE COASTAL ZONES WITH RAINFALL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSING SE OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. A COLD FRONT FOLLOWS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECTING A DRY PASSAGE AND INCREASING WIND GUSTS WITH IT. HIGHS NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY...AND A LITTLE WARMER ON FRIDAY. THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT LEADS TO COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY...BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS AT MOST. A RETURN SW FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE THEN PUSHES HIGH TEMPS BACK ABOVE NORMALS ON SUNDAY...BUT STILL IN THE 70S FOR THE MOST PART. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SW SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH IT PUSHES AND THE MAGNITUDE OF COLD ADVECTION WITH IT. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT SUPPLIED BY THE TWO FRONTS...HAVE GONE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD BE PRESENT FOR A THUNDERSTORM AS WELL.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MVFR CONTINUES AT MOST TERMINALS. CIGS DROP TO IFR AFTER SUNSET...FIRST AT KJFK AND KISP. LIFR/IFR CONDS ARE THEN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN LOW CLOUDS...FOG...AND -SHRA. NE-E WINDS 10-15 KT CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...THEN BECOME SE-ESE AT 5-10 KT TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT TUESDAY MORNING. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON. AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 20 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. TIMING OF LOWERING CIGS/VISBY THIS EVE MAY BE OFF BY +/-AN HOUR OR TWO. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING OF LOWERING CIGS/VISBY THIS EVE MAY BE OFF BY +/- AN HOUR OR TWO. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING OF LOWERING CIGS/VISBY THIS EVE MAY BE OFF BY +/- AN HOUR OR TWO. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING OF LOWERING CIGS/VISBY THIS EVE MAY BE OFF BY +/- AN HOUR OR TWO. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING OF LOWERING CIGS/VISBY THIS EVE MAY BE OFF BY +/- AN HOUR OR TWO. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: A PERIOD OF VFR IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 22Z. TIMING OF LOWERING CIGS/VISBY THIS EVE MAY BE OFF BY +/- AN HOUR OR TWO. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .TUESDAY AFTERNOON-TUESDAY NIGHT...IMPROVEMENTS TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON. VFR AT NIGHT. CHANCE SHRA/TSRA IN THE EVE. .WEDNESDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE. .THURSDAY-FRIDAY...VFR. NW G20KT POSSIBLE FRIDAY. .SATURDAY...VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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SEAS ARE BETWEEN 4 AND 5 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 4 FT THIS EVENING. AT THIS TIME...WILL NOT ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SINCE THIS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. WILL MONITOR THROUGH THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT FOG TO RE-DEVELOP TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 5 FT THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE COULD BE HOWEVER BE FREQUENT GUSTS TO SCA CRITERIA WEDNESDAY BEHIND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... BETWEEN 2/10 AND 3/10 INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. LITTLE OR NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/JC NEAR TERM...BC SHORT TERM...BC LONG TERM...JC AVIATION...DS MARINE...BC/JC HYDROLOGY...BC/JC

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