Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 211137 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 637 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT THEN PASSES NEARBY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN STALLS OFFSHORE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... FORECAST ON TRACK THIS MORNING. WE JUST OBSERVED AN 850MB TEMPERATURE ON OUR 12Z RAOB LAUNCH OF -13C...IMPRESSIVELY LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. USING CLIMATOLOGY DATA PROVIDED BY THE RAPID CITY SD WFO...THIS IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NOVEMBER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE TODAY...IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S FOR HIGHS. HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SAME TIME...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS A TROUGH AXIS PASSES THROUGH. ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A FEW CLOUDS...BUT THAT`S THE EXTENT OF IT. PREFERRED THE COLDER NAM MOS FOR HIGH TEMPS. A GUSTY NW FLOW WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE 20S THIS AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... WINDS SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE NEARS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. CLEAR WITH LOW TEMPS 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A RETURN WSW-SW FLOW ON SATURDAY WILL HELP TEMPERATURES MODERATE...BUT HIGHS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. SUN FILTERED THROUGH SOME CIRRUS IN SPOTS IN THE MORNING...THEN SOME LOWER CLOUDS ENTERING DURING THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS THICKEN MORE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT PASSING THROUGH. BETTER LIFT OVERALL TO THE NORTH...AND ENOUGH MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY. AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL HAVE ANY PCPN REACHING THE GROUND AS RAIN. THERE IS HOWEVER A CHANCE THAT IT COULD BE FREEZING RAIN ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. EXPECTING TEMPS TO RISE A LITTLE FOR THE MOST PART OVERNIGHT WITH THE WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING CLOUDS...BUT TEMPS ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE AT OR CLOSE TO FREEZING LATE AT NIGHT FOR THESE AREAS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH UPPER RIDGING QUICKLY BUILDING OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY ON IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. ANY LIGHT PRECIP THAT DEVELOPS EARLY ENDS QUICKLY WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND SEASONABLE DAY. A WARM FRONT THEN APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN. MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN THE TIMING OF THE BEST LIFT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z MONDAY. THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING TAKING THE BEST LIFT AND DEEPEST MOISTURE NORTH AND EAST. SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER THE WARM FRONT PASSES...BUT EXPECT ENOUGH SUNSHINE IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW TO WARM TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S...WARMEST IN THE NEW YORK CITY METRO. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S. THE FRONT STALLS OFFSHORE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWS DOWN DUE TO DEEP RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN SETS UP A BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE EAST COAST. 00Z MODELS DEPICT A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE AS ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OR OVER THE 40/70 BENCHMARK ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS EXPECTED SIX DAYS OUT...THERE ARE TIMING AND INTENSITY DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS. THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST AND STRONGEST AMONGST THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED SEVERAL MEMBERS OF THE 00Z GEFS SHOW A SLOWER AND STRONGER LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL TRENDS AS THIS WILL BE OCCURRING DURING THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR. UNCERTAINTIES EXIST IN HOW FAR WEST THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL REACH...AND THE EXTENT OF COLD AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS THAT WILL BE AVAILABLE. SYSTEM MOVES NORTH AND EAST ON THURSDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HI PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE W THRU TONIGHT. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WLY FLOW VEERS TO THE NW THIS MORNING. STRONGEST GUSTS DURING THE DAY...THEN A DRAMATIC DECREASE TONIGHT. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE NEAR 310 MAGNETIC TODAY. EXPECT JUST LEFT OF 310 THROUGH 14Z OR SO...BECOMING JUST RIGHT OF 310 BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z...BUT MAY FLUCTUATE ACROSS THE LINE THROUGHOUT THE AFTN/EVE. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE NEAR 310 MAGNETIC TODAY. EXPECT JUST LEFT OF 310 THROUGH 14Z OR SO...BECOMING JUST RIGHT OF 310 BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z...BUT MAY FLUCTUATE ACROSS THE LINE THROUGHOUT THE AFTN/EVE. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE NEAR OR RIGHT ALONG 310 MAGNETIC TODAY. COULD REMAIN JUST LEFT OR ON 310...BUT MAY FLUCTUATE ACROSS THE LINE THROUGHOUT THE AFTN/EVE. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS AROUND 20KT MAY BEGIN BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SAT THROUGH TUE... .SAT-SAT NIGHT...VFR. SW WINDS 10-15 GUSTS UP TO 20 KT DURING THE DAY. .SUN...MAINLY VFR. .SUN NIGHT-MON...MVFR/IFR. POSSIBLY SUB-IFR. RA AND FG WITH LLWS POSSIBLE. .TUE...VFR. && .MARINE... HAVE CONVERTED THE GALE WARNINGS TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. PERHAPS A GUST OR TWO TO 35KT UNTIL AROUND 12Z TODAY...BUT PRIMARILY SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY FOR ALL WATERS...WITH SCA CONDS CONTINUING INTO A PORTION OF TONIGHT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS/EASTERN SOUND/EASTERN BAYS. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER SCA COULD BE NEEDED FOR THESE SAME AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS A WSW FLOW INCREASES. SCA WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS COULD OCCUR ON MONDAY AS WELL. THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS ON TUESDAY...BUT WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AT SCA LEVELS. && .FIRE WEATHER... THE COMBINATION OF FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH...RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 PERCENT...AND 4 DAYS WITHOUT RAINFALL WILL PRESENT AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR BRUSH FIRE SPREAD IF IGNITION OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ON THE COASTAL PLAIN. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ANTICIPATED. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ335- 338-345. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330- 340-355. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/DS NEAR TERM...JC/DS SHORT TERM...JC LONG TERM...DS AVIATION... MARINE...JC/DS FIRE WEATHER... HYDROLOGY...JC/DS

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