Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Upton, NY
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000
FXUS61 KOKX 150656
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
256 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure moves across the region overnight and east of New
England Friday, bringing a cold front across the area during the
day. Another wave of low pressure travels along the cold front
south of the region Friday night. Weak high pressure briefly
moves in on Saturday. Low pressure passes well north of the area
Sunday, dragging a cold front through the area. High pressure
then gradually builds back in through the middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Slowed down the timing of precipitation into the region based
on the latest guidance and CAMs.
A warm front was north of the region, through the lower Hudson
Valley and into southern Massachusetts. Clouds will increase
more tonight from west to east. Overall, mostly cloudy
conditions are expected tonight.
Ahead of the central low pressure, vertical forcing will
increase as diagnosed from low level omega increasing. A mid
level shortwave will be approaching from the north late tonight
but highest positive vorticity advection stays mainly north of
the area. The wave will be weakening as it moves near the area.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Mid level flow remains zonal Friday through Friday night.
At the surface, one wave of low pressure is expected to pass
north and east of the region Friday and as it exits east of
coastal New England, and it will bring a cold front across late
morning into the afternoon. There is some uncertainty with the
timing of this cold front passage.
Another wave of low pressure is forecast to move east and
eventually pass south of Long Island Friday afternoon into
Friday night along this cold front. Forecast models have trended
farther south with the front and this other wave of low
pressure. The cold front and low pressure are expected to move
well south of the region Friday night.
Clouds will remain abundant through the day Friday.
The chances for rain showers will be pushing to the east and
south with the low exiting into the New England coast, and the
cold front pushing to the south. Updated the probabilities based
on the latest guidance.
Leaned towards greater weight with NBM compared to MAV and MET
MOS and NBM, with a range of high temperatures forecast from
upper 50s to mid 60s. Based on 12Z model runs, this forecast is
slightly warmer than the forecast based on 00Z model runs. One
feature mitigating high temperature potential will be the low to
mid level cold air advection. 850mb temperatures lower during
the day with forecast soundings showing a backing of winds from
lower to mid levels.
For Friday night, mainly dry conditions are anticipated and with a
gradual decrease in clouds from north to south as weak high
pressure starts to build in from the north. NW flow will become
more northerly and decrease with gusts diminishing. More
radiational cooling is expected. Lows forecast weighed more
heavily with MOS blend compared to NBM to depict this with a
range of lows from lower 30s to mid 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Gradual ridging on Saturday will allow for a weak surface high
to build into the region with fairly dry and mostly clear to
partly cloudy conditions. A large digging trough upstream and an
associated large surface low pressure north of the Great Lakes
region will begin to push into the area on Sunday. As the low
passes to the north, it drags a cold front through the area on
Sunday with a chance of showers for the area, mainly for the
northern portions of the CWA.
The large low pressure continues eastward over Southeast Canada with
the cold front south of the area on Monday. The large amplified
upper level trough establishes its dominance over much of the Great
Lakes region and Northeast by Monday. A series of secondary cold
fronts push through the area under primarily northwest flow,
bringing with it reinforcing shots of cold air into Tuesday. While
showers are generally not expected with these weaker frontal
passages, instability showers may develop into the afternoon on
Monday with the upper trough overhead.
Much of the midlevel energy pushes east on Tuesday with the upper
level trough generally pulling away. Some subtle ridging looks to
move in by late Tuesday and into Wednesday with weak surface high
pressure building in providing for generally dry conditions. Another
low pressure system may impact the area by the end of the week but
global models struggle to remain consistent at this time.
Temperatures will remain mild on Saturday and Sunday ahead of the
cold front with highs in the middle to upper 50s. Cooler air will
then filter in behind the cold front such that high temperatures
from Monday through Wednesday remain generally in the middle 40s.
Tuesday should be the coolest day of the long term with highs in the
low to middle 40s.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A frontal system will pass across today.
Showers are possible overnight into early this morning, with
cond remaining mostly VFR. A brief shower is also possible
later this morning into the afternoon, but coverage and duration
too low to include in the forecast attm.
Light winds overnight gradually shift toward the SW early this
morning. Wind speeds increase after 12Z, becoming NW 10-15 kt
with gusts 15-20 kt by 15Z-16Z.
LLWS remains for all sites except KSWF early this morning, with
SW winds at 1 kft AGL around 45 kt.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled AMD expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Late tonight and Saturday: VFR.
Sunday: Chance of showers with brief MVFR cond possible inland,
mainly at KSWF and mainly in the morning. SW winds 10-15G20kt in
the morning, becoming W 15G20-25kt in the afternoon, then
diminishing at night.
Monday: VFR. W winds 10-15G20kt, becoming NW at night.
Tuesday: VFR. NW winds 15G20-25kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Gusty NW flow may allow for some SCA wind gusts on the ocean
Friday into Friday night. Ocean seas forecast to get close to
SCA threshold but stay at 4 ft. Otherwise, tonight through
Friday night will have mainly below SCA conditions for the
forecast waters.
The confidence is too low for any SCA issuance at this time for
Friday into Friday night. Most gusts will be to near 20 kt.
BUFKIT soundings show limited mixing over the waters also.
Sub-SCA conditions are expected for all waters through Saturday
with marginal SCA conditions possible developing ahead of a
cold frontal passage on Sunday. Winds may gust near 25 kt for
all waters, though the ocean seems more likely. Waves on the
ocean will be around 4-5 feet. Sub-SCA conditions are then
expected once again by Sunday evening though Monday afternoon.
Additional near 25 kt gusts may provide for SCA conditions again
Monday evening, mainly for the ocean.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No significance with forecast rain tonight through Friday with
less than a quarter inch.
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the end of the week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/MW
NEAR TERM...JMC/JM/MET/MW
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...Goodman
MARINE...JM/MET/MW
HYDROLOGY...JM/MW