Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 181137 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 637 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... UNSEASONABLY COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONT EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AFFECTS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... MINOR UPDATES TO T/TD AND SKY EARLY THIS MORNING TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDS AND TRENDS. DEEP TROUGH ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN HALF OF NOAM AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXTENDING INTO NWRN CANADA WITH H5 FLOW ORIGINATING FROM THE POLAR REGION WILL LEAD TO AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS TODAY. DEPARTING LOW PRES WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE S WITH A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE AREA. WINDS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO GUST ACROSS THE AREA...BUT STRONG CAA AND MIXING AFTER SUNRISE WILL LEAD TO GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH. THE STRONG CAA ALSO WON`T ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE MUCH TODAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. SOME PLACES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT WILL LIKELY REACH THEIR HIGHS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS DROPPING THEREAFTER. MOSUNNY SKIES EXCEPT PERHAPS ON THE TWIN FORKS WHERE STRATOCU FROM CAA MAY LEAD TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE AFTN. THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS AND STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS N AND W TO LOWER 20S AT THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... THE DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST WILL BROADEN TONIGHT AND WED AS THE VORTEX OVER SOUTHERN CANADA LIFTS TO THE NE. THE FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE N POLE REGION WITH JANUARY LIKE TEMPS CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL...AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS INLAND AND IN THE PINE BARRENS OF LONG ISLAND AND GENERALLY LOWER 20S AT THE COAST. WIND CHILLS DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS INLAND AND 10 TO 15 ABOVE AT THE COAST. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON TUE...HOWEVER WINDS WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHED. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTN WED AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM AS THE PATTERN LOOKS DRY AND COLD INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND THEN GET ABOVE TO START THE WEEK (WITH RAIN). A WARM FRONT WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RISE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MORE SO OVER LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL SE CT...WHERE SW WINDS ARRIVE OFF THE WARMER ATLANTIC WATERS. CLOUDS FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING MUCH IF AT ALL. HAVE REMOVED THE LIGHT PCPN...THOUGH SOME TRACE AMOUNTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH THE WARM ADVECTION. LATEST NWP KEEPS THE LIGHT MEASURABLE PCPN TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...EXPECT A DRY PASSAGE. WITH A GOOD WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND DEEPER MIXING...WE REACH THE 40S IN MOST AREAS. THE FLOW IS CYCLONIC ALOFT ON FRIDAY. THERE COULD BE A SURFACE REFLECTION AT THE SURFACE IN THE FORM OF A TROUGH...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE. MOISTURE IS STILL LACKING...SO WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST. HIGH TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN ON SATURDAY...THEN WILL BE OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. DRY FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND...BUT LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY EVENING OVER WESTERN SECTIONS. AFTER ANOTHER COLDER THAN NORMAL DAY ON SATURDAY...SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE HIGH TEMPS NEAR NORMALS. MAY HAVE A RATHER "DIRTY" RIDGE ON SATURDAY AND WAA ON SUNDAY WILL MAKE FOR A CLOUDY DAY. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THEN STRENGTHENS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT OF A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN NOT TOO DIFFERENT THAN YESTERDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS A MODERATE SW FLOW DEVELOPS. SOME HINTS OF INTERESTING WEATHER FOR THE BUSY TRAVEL DAY NEXT WEDNESDAY...OF COURSE THAT`S REALLY BEYOND THE LIMITS OF PREDICTABILITY. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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VFR WITH GUSTY WNW WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. GUSTY WNW WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING INCREASE SOON AFTER SUNRISE TO 20-25G28-35KT...HIGHEST AT COASTAL TERMINALS. WINDS AND GUSTS GRADUALLY LOWER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 KT THROUGH THIS EVENING. WIND DIRECTION SHOULD REMAIN LEFT OF 310 MAGNETIC. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 KT THROUGH THIS EVENING. WIND DIRECTION EXPECTED TO REMAIN LEFT OF 310 MAGNETIC. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 KT THROUGH THIS EVENING. WIND DIRECTION EXPECTED TO REMAIN LEFT OF 310 MAGNETIC. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST OVER 30 KT THROUGH THIS EVENING. WIND DIRECTION EXPECTED TO REMAIN LEFT OF 310 MAGNETIC. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST OVER 30 KT THROUGH THIS EVENING. WIND DIRECTION EXPECTED TO REMAIN LEFT OF 310 MAGNETIC. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 KT THROUGH THIS EVENING. WIND DIRECTION EXPECTED TO REMAIN LEFT OF 310 MAGNETIC. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .WEDNESDAY...VFR. .THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. SW WIND 15-20KT WITH G30KT POSSIBLE. .FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. WNW WINDS G25KT POSSIBLE. .FRI NIGHT-SAT...VFR.
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&& .MARINE... ONLY CHANGE TO HEADLINES WAS TO EXTEND THE CURRENT GALE WARNING THROUGH 12Z WED AND THE SCA THROUGH 15Z WED. GALES MAY LINGER ON THE EASTERN WATERS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS WED MORNING...BUT THIS CAN BE REEVALUATED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY ON WED WITH SUB-ADVSY WINDS EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS BY AFTN. SEAS E OF FIRE ISLAND INLET MAY LINGER THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS PICK UP AGAIN WITH SCA CONDS LIKELY WED NGT THOUGH FRI IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. MINIMAL GALE IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR ALL WATERS DOES NOT APPEAR TO RETURN UNTIL SOME POINT ON SATURDAY AS THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REACHES THE EASTERN SEABOARD. && .HYDROLOGY... DRY WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. && .CLIMATE... SOME RECORDS MAY BE TIED OR SET WITH THE COLD AIR FORECAST TUE AND WED. THE FOLLOWING ARE RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS FOR TUE NOV 18 AND WED NOV 19TH... NOV 18 NOV 19 NYC....33/1959* 34/1882 JFK....32/1959 37/2008 LGA....32/1959 35/1951 EWR....33/1959 35/1951 BDR....32/1959 35/2008 ISP....41/2005 35/2008 *...ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS RECORD LOWS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE MORNING OF WED NOV 19. THE FOLLOWING ARE RECORD LOWS FOR WED NOV 19TH... NYC....18/1936 JFK....27/2008 LGA....28/2008 EWR....19/1936 BDR....24/1986 ISP....23/1997 && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ335-338- 345. GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ330-340-350-353- 355. && $$

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