Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 150656 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 256 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure moves across the region overnight and east of New England Friday, bringing a cold front across the area during the day. Another wave of low pressure travels along the cold front south of the region Friday night. Weak high pressure briefly moves in on Saturday. Low pressure passes well north of the area Sunday, dragging a cold front through the area. High pressure then gradually builds back in through the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Slowed down the timing of precipitation into the region based on the latest guidance and CAMs. A warm front was north of the region, through the lower Hudson Valley and into southern Massachusetts. Clouds will increase more tonight from west to east. Overall, mostly cloudy conditions are expected tonight. Ahead of the central low pressure, vertical forcing will increase as diagnosed from low level omega increasing. A mid level shortwave will be approaching from the north late tonight but highest positive vorticity advection stays mainly north of the area. The wave will be weakening as it moves near the area. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Mid level flow remains zonal Friday through Friday night. At the surface, one wave of low pressure is expected to pass north and east of the region Friday and as it exits east of coastal New England, and it will bring a cold front across late morning into the afternoon. There is some uncertainty with the timing of this cold front passage. Another wave of low pressure is forecast to move east and eventually pass south of Long Island Friday afternoon into Friday night along this cold front. Forecast models have trended farther south with the front and this other wave of low pressure. The cold front and low pressure are expected to move well south of the region Friday night. Clouds will remain abundant through the day Friday. The chances for rain showers will be pushing to the east and south with the low exiting into the New England coast, and the cold front pushing to the south. Updated the probabilities based on the latest guidance. Leaned towards greater weight with NBM compared to MAV and MET MOS and NBM, with a range of high temperatures forecast from upper 50s to mid 60s. Based on 12Z model runs, this forecast is slightly warmer than the forecast based on 00Z model runs. One feature mitigating high temperature potential will be the low to mid level cold air advection. 850mb temperatures lower during the day with forecast soundings showing a backing of winds from lower to mid levels. For Friday night, mainly dry conditions are anticipated and with a gradual decrease in clouds from north to south as weak high pressure starts to build in from the north. NW flow will become more northerly and decrease with gusts diminishing. More radiational cooling is expected. Lows forecast weighed more heavily with MOS blend compared to NBM to depict this with a range of lows from lower 30s to mid 40s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Gradual ridging on Saturday will allow for a weak surface high to build into the region with fairly dry and mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions. A large digging trough upstream and an associated large surface low pressure north of the Great Lakes region will begin to push into the area on Sunday. As the low passes to the north, it drags a cold front through the area on Sunday with a chance of showers for the area, mainly for the northern portions of the CWA. The large low pressure continues eastward over Southeast Canada with the cold front south of the area on Monday. The large amplified upper level trough establishes its dominance over much of the Great Lakes region and Northeast by Monday. A series of secondary cold fronts push through the area under primarily northwest flow, bringing with it reinforcing shots of cold air into Tuesday. While showers are generally not expected with these weaker frontal passages, instability showers may develop into the afternoon on Monday with the upper trough overhead. Much of the midlevel energy pushes east on Tuesday with the upper level trough generally pulling away. Some subtle ridging looks to move in by late Tuesday and into Wednesday with weak surface high pressure building in providing for generally dry conditions. Another low pressure system may impact the area by the end of the week but global models struggle to remain consistent at this time. Temperatures will remain mild on Saturday and Sunday ahead of the cold front with highs in the middle to upper 50s. Cooler air will then filter in behind the cold front such that high temperatures from Monday through Wednesday remain generally in the middle 40s. Tuesday should be the coolest day of the long term with highs in the low to middle 40s. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A frontal system will pass across today. Showers are possible overnight into early this morning, with cond remaining mostly VFR. A brief shower is also possible later this morning into the afternoon, but coverage and duration too low to include in the forecast attm. Light winds overnight gradually shift toward the SW early this morning. Wind speeds increase after 12Z, becoming NW 10-15 kt with gusts 15-20 kt by 15Z-16Z. LLWS remains for all sites except KSWF early this morning, with SW winds at 1 kft AGL around 45 kt. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... No unscheduled AMD expected. OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... Late tonight and Saturday: VFR. Sunday: Chance of showers with brief MVFR cond possible inland, mainly at KSWF and mainly in the morning. SW winds 10-15G20kt in the morning, becoming W 15G20-25kt in the afternoon, then diminishing at night. Monday: VFR. W winds 10-15G20kt, becoming NW at night. Tuesday: VFR. NW winds 15G20-25kt. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&& .MARINE... Gusty NW flow may allow for some SCA wind gusts on the ocean Friday into Friday night. Ocean seas forecast to get close to SCA threshold but stay at 4 ft. Otherwise, tonight through Friday night will have mainly below SCA conditions for the forecast waters. The confidence is too low for any SCA issuance at this time for Friday into Friday night. Most gusts will be to near 20 kt. BUFKIT soundings show limited mixing over the waters also. Sub-SCA conditions are expected for all waters through Saturday with marginal SCA conditions possible developing ahead of a cold frontal passage on Sunday. Winds may gust near 25 kt for all waters, though the ocean seems more likely. Waves on the ocean will be around 4-5 feet. Sub-SCA conditions are then expected once again by Sunday evening though Monday afternoon. Additional near 25 kt gusts may provide for SCA conditions again Monday evening, mainly for the ocean. && .HYDROLOGY... No significance with forecast rain tonight through Friday with less than a quarter inch. No hydrologic impacts are expected through the end of the week. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JM/MW NEAR TERM...JMC/JM/MET/MW SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM...MW AVIATION...Goodman MARINE...JM/MET/MW HYDROLOGY...JM/MW

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