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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KOKX 160552
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
152 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS LOW AND A
TRAILING TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON SUNDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES ON MONDAY...NOT MOVING ACROSS UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING. A
LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL TRANSLATE EAST
OVERNIGHT. WEAK W-SW FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY TOWARD DAYBREAK
WITH THE AIR MASS BECOMING GRADUALLY MORE HUMID. HIGH CLOUDS JUST
TO THE WEST WILL ALSO MOVE IN LATE.

USED A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV MOS FOR LOWS...FROM THE LOWER 50S
INLAND...TO THE LOWER 60S AT THE COAST AND NYC METRO. THIS IS
CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY
SUN AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. A
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL SEND THE FEATURE QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA
SUN EVE...PRECEDED BY POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
AFT/EVE. THE AIR MASS IS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH WEAK TO MODERATE
SHEAR. THIS WILL HOWEVER BE OFFSET BY THE CLOUD COVER.
THUS...LOOKING MAINLY AT SCT CONVECTION WITH THE CHANGE OF ANY
STRONGER ISOLATED CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE NYC
METRO. A BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR IS POSSIBLE WITH PW VALUES AROUND
1.75 INCHES...HOWEVER...MOISTURE IN THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER IS
LIMITED.

HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S...A
BIT COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. SHOULD THERE BE MORE
SUNSHINE...THESE TEMPS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER.

THE THREAT OF CONVECTION SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN
LONG ISLAND AND SE CT...WITH CLEARING SKIES. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN WARM AND HUMID...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
AND MID 60S.

THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN NEAR THE REGION WITH
PERIODIC STREAKS MOVING ACROSS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE JET
LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. MID LEVEL LOW MOVES FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC AND THEN
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. OVER OUR
AREA...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW MONDAY WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A RETURN TO NEARLY ZONAL FLOW THEREAFTER.
AT THE SURFACE...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON
MONDAY...NOT MOVING ACROSS UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE
AREA PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY FROM THE WEST AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE TOWARDS THE LATTER
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

MAIN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE FOCUSED ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY TUESDAY WITH BEST COMBINATION OF CAPE AND FORCING ALOFT
DIAGNOSED BY THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK OF 80-100 KT
SWINGING INTO THE REGION. LOWER CHANCES WILL EXIST ACROSS INTERIOR
EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE REGION MAINLY OVER THE OCEAN
TUESDAY EVENING. DRIER WEATHER SETTLES IN THEREAFTER WITHOUT MUCH
BEYOND PERHAPS A DIURNALLY INDUCED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THURSDAY
THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR LOCATIONS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY...CLOSER
TO NORMAL TUESDAY...A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND NEAR
NORMAL THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE SOUTH WILL SLIDE EAST OVERNIGHT.
A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ON SUNDAY.

VFR WITH DIMINISHING SW-W WINDS TONIGHT. FLOW SHOULD BACK MORE
SW-S AND PICK UP BEGINNING LATE MORNING SUNDAY...REACHING SPEEDS
10-15 KT BY AFTERNOON. GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 20 KT RANGE WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR TERMINALS. ALSO...A FEW HIGHER
SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. A FEW
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF NYC. CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME...HOWEVER ANY OF THESE SHOWERS COULD RESULT IN LOWER
CIGS...BUT SHOULD STILL REMAIN VFR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MON THROUGH WED...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT TSTMS COULD BRING MVFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS IN THE EVENING. MAINLY VFR OVERNIGHT...WITH
PATCHY MVFR VSBY AT OUTLYING TERMINALS WHERE ANY RAIN FALLS.

.MON-TUE...SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT TSTMS COULD BRING MVFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS.

.WED-THU...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
A WEAK SW FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL STRENGTHEN TO 15 TO 20 KT TODAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS WILL BRING SEAS
CLOSE TO SCA LEVELS LAT THIS AFT/EVE ON THE OCEAN
WATERS...PARTICULARLY WESTERN OCEAN WATERS AND ENTRANCE TO NY
HARBOR.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF OCEAN SEAS REACHING MINIMAL SCA CONDS
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LATE MON AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS PW REACHES UP TO AROUND
1.75 INCHES.

HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL
ON MONDAY WITH MORE OF A CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHER PW GETTING BACK UP TO AROUND 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER FORECAST THEREAFTER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...JM/DW
HYDROLOGY...JM/DW