Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 100342 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1142 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...STALLING JUST TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... THE SVR WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED EVERYWHERE. THE CDFNT WAS INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY. THERE MAY STILL BE SOME ISOLD-SCT SHRA AND TSTMS OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE SFC BOUNDARY DUE TO THE UPR DIVERGENCE AS EVIDENCED OVER PA. WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT...WITH THE MESO MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF PCPN THEN MOVING TO THE NORTH FROM THE DELMARVA REGION. HOWEVER...THE CONFIDENCE OF IT REACHING LONG ISLAND/NYC METRO ON THE LOWER END AND WILL JUST HAVE CHC POPS OVER THE OCEAN WATERS. COOLER AIR WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE IN...SO WILL HAVE ONE MORE NIGHT OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. SIDED MORE WITH A MET SOLUTION FOR TEMP/DEW PT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND REMAINS STALLED JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. MULTIPLE WEAK LOWS RIDE THE FRONT TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. OVERALL...EXPECTING DRIER AIR TO MOVE IN. BUT THERE MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE LEFT IN THE ATMO COMBINING WITH DECENT FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY AT THE SFC AND PASSING SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LVL TROUGH TO GENERATE AN ISO SHOWER OR EVEN TSTM IN THE AFTN. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC WORDING IN FOR NOW DURING THE PERIOD...WITH A GOOD CHC OF MOST OF THE REGION REMAINING DRY THOUGH. TEMPS FINALLY DROP DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL...USING A GENERAL BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT ALONG ALL OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE BY FRI MRNG...WITH DRY WX ACROSS THE CWA. THERE WILL BE PCPN GENERATED ALONG THE FRONT...AND THE PROGS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE SHORE...SO THE EXACT SPEED WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS ANY SLOWDOWN COULD RESULT IN RAIN AT LEAST FRI MRNG. HIPRES THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE FRI THRU SAT. ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST SOME ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS SAT ALONG THE CWA PERIPHERY...HAVE SIDED CLOSER TO THE NAM WHICH KEEPS THE CONVECTIVELY FAVORABLE INSTABILITY FURTHER W. THE SHORES WILL BE DRY REGARDLESS...WITH THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY ACROSS THE WRN INTERIOR. THE HIGH DRIFTS OFFSHORE SUN AND SETTLES OVER THE ATLANTIC THRU THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. AFTN AND EVE TSTMS POSSIBLE ON SUN...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR...AS RETURN FLOW INCREASES MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. A STRONG CLOSED H5 LOW THEN DROPS INTO THE UPR GREAT LAKES MON AND TUE. SINGLE DIGIT H85 TEMPS WITH THIS ACROSS NRN MN INTO THE UP. THE SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL PUMP WARM HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION FOR MON AND TUE. THIS SETUP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A SVR OUTBREAK AT SOME POINT MON-TUE. && .AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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STRONG CONVECTION THAT PASSED NORTH OF THE NYC TERMINALS EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS WEAKENED AND PASSED TO THE EAST. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY ALONG OR JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT NEAR THE NJ/PA BORDER WAS TRACKING TO THE EAST AT 35 KT. SOME OF THIS MAY IMPACT THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND NYC TERMINALS IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW BASED ON A WEAKENING TREND NOTED IN THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY. SO WILL JUST MENTION VICINITY SHOWERS FOR THE TAFS DURING OVERNIGHT PERIOD. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE N AT 5 TO 10 KT FROM 06Z TO 12Z. WINDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO THE E/SE BY THU AFT WITH SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT LIKELY. VFR. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THU. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .THURSDAY-SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. .SUNDAY-MONDAY...CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
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&& .MARINE...
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SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET FOR SEAS AROUND 5 FT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 5 FT FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS FRI-SUN. SCA CONDITIONS RETURN MON AND TUE AS STRONG SW FLOW DEVELOPS.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANY TSTMS MON AND TUE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HVY RAIN. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ353. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC/SEARS NEAR TERM...JMC/SEARS SHORT TERM...SEARS LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...DW MARINE...JMC/SEARS HYDROLOGY...JMC/SEARS

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