Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 271927 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 327 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE REGION MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 40S. EXCEPT LOWS MAY STAY IN THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NYC METRO...AND SHOULD DROP INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. FOLLOWED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR LOWS TONIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST APPROACHES. CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR SOME LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF NYC...AS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY BE POSSIBLE BEFORE SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD...WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE 50S.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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CLOSED LOW PRES NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH AND INTO NORTHERN CANADA ON WEDNESDAY...AND THIS WILL DRAG A SFC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. MODELS SEEM TO BREAK AN UPPER TROUGH OFF FROM THE UPPER LOW...AND THE SFC FRONT LOSES ITS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. CAN EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF. MOST OF THE SHOWERS COULD TAPER OFF BEFORE THEY MAKE IT TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WEAK SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. SHARP CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THEN ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND. DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CARVE AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. SFC LOW PRES WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NY...AND THEN SFC LOW PRES FORMS AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THERE ARE MANY DIFFERENCES AMONG THE LONG RANGE MODELS IN TERMS OF PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THESE LOWS...BUT WOULD EXPECT PRECIP TO DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...AND THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. THE ONE THING THAT THE MODELS HAVE IN COMMON IS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS THAT WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION WITH TEMPS FALLING ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND THEN TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT PTYPE ISSUES FOR AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP ALL SNOW CONFINED TO INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SW CT....AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW INTO NYC AND SOUTHERN CT. WILL KEEP PRECIP ALL RAIN FOR LONG ISLAND. THE QUESTION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT IS HOW FAR WEST TO SPREAD THE PRECIP. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER EASTERN ZONES. OBVIOUSLY...THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AND WILL LIKELY CHANGE SEVERAL TIMES BASED ON THE NEWEST MODEL RUNS. IT IS ALSO WAY TOO SOON TO DETERMINE HOW MUCH SNOW...IF ANY...WILL ACCUMULATE. TEMPS THIS PERIOD WILL START OUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70...ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN WILL DROP BACK TO NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST...HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND CONDS SHOULD MODERATE SOMEWHAT BY MONDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. WNW FLOW BETWEEN 7-12 KTS THROUGH THE AFTN...BCMG LIGHT AND VRB THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. S FLOW AFTR 12Z TOMORROW...GENERALLY 8-13 KTS. OCNL GUSTS MAY MIX IN BUT TOO LOW CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE AT THE MOMENT. A FEW HIGH LVL CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS WILL VARY BETWEEN 260-300 (TRUE) THROUGH 22Z...BCMG 260-280 (TRUE) FOR THE AFTN/EVENING. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS WILL VARY BETWEEN 300-330 (TRUE) THROUGH 21Z...BCMG 270-290 (TRUE) FOR THE AFTN. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS WILL VARY BETWEEN 260-290 (TRUE) THRU THE AFTN. VERY SPORADIC GUSTS TO 16 KTS PSBL THRU 20Z. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. .TUES-TUES NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. .WED-WED NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS PSBL WITH -SHRA. WSW TO NW WIND SHIFT WED NIGHT. OCNL GUSTS 15-20 KTS PSBL. .THURSDAY-FRIDAY...VFR. .FRI NIGHT-SAT...GENERALLY VFR...WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS PSBL WITH PCPN. LOW CONFIDENCE OF PCPN TYPE/AMT. WNW FLOW 10-15G20KT INTERIOR...15-20G25-30KT AT THE COAST SAT.
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&& .MARINE...
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SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE AREA WATERS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WATERS. SEAS START TO BUILD TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 5 FT TUESDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS LIKELY ON AT LEAST THE OCEAN WATERS WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS EAST FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH TRANQUIL CONDS. STRONG LOW PRES COULD IMPACT THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND WITH GALE FORCE WINDS ON ALL WATERS.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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LIGHT PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/MPS NEAR TERM...BC SHORT TERM...BC LONG TERM...MPS AVIATION...SEARS MARINE...BC/MPS HYDROLOGY...BC/MPS

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