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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KOKX 160811
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
411 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL IMPACT THE AREA TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHEARING E FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO
ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND AN EASTWARD MOVING MCS OVER MICHIGAN...WILL TRACK
A WEAK WAVE/FRONT INTO THE NORTHEAST FOR LATE TODAY.

CLOUD COVER INCREASES THIS MORNING FROM W TO E WITH THETA E
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WAVE...WITH MAINLY CLOUD SKIES
EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. WITH LIMITED SUNSHINE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
TODAY...STRONGER SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD KEEP COASTAL SECTIONS
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...WHILE CITY AND INTERIOR SECTIONS CLOSE TO
YESTERDAY. GENERALLY MID-UPPER 70S COAST...TO LOWER 80S INTERIOR.

A CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE HIGHER
PROBABILITY OF TSRA APPEARS TO BE TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
REGION...WITH STRONGER SYNOPTIC FORCING TO THE NORTH AND HIGHER
INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH. LIMITED SUNSHINE AND WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL
LIMIT INSTABILITY TODAY...BUT COMBINED WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...REMNANT MCS ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH WESTERN/CENTRAL NY OR
ORGANIZING STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE TSRA ACTIVITY ACROSS PA PRESENT
A SLIGHT THREAT FOR STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS INTO FAR W/NW
SECTIONS OF THE REGION LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD
WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD INTO THE MARINE LAYER.

STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY
ORGANIZED STRONGER CONVECTION.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
BEACHES.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
ACTIVE ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY TROUGHED FLOW CONTINUES DURING THIS PERIOD
AROUND A PERSISTENT EASTERN CANADIAN UPPER LOW. THIS WILL BRING A
CONTINUATION OF WEAK WAVES/FRONTS AFFECTING THE REGION INTO TUESDAY.

OVERALL ONLY LOW-MODERATE PREDICTABILITY IN SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR MON AND
TUE...AS EXACT TIMING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS DIFFICULT MORE THAN 24
HOURS OUT. SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL TIMING WILL DETERMINE COVERAGE OF
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY EACH DAY.

ANY WEAKENING CONVECTION OR SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH
OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST AND AREAS THAT
EXPERIENCE RAINFALL.

MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVE COULD PRESENT THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE BETTER INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR ON MONDAY...BUT THEY ALSO INDICATE THAT SURFACE TROUGHING
AND LOW- LEVEL JET WILL BE WEAKER ON MONDAY...AS WE WILL BE IN
BETWEEN RELATIVELY STRONGER FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING PEAK HEATING.
FOR NOW SO WILL KEEP CONVECTIVE CHANCE LOW AND MAINLY INTERIOR...WITH
BEST CHANCE IN VICINITY OF THERMAL TROUGHING. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
RE-EVALUATED AS CONFIDENCE IN MODELS HANDLING OF THIS IS
LOW...BASED ON AFOREMENTIONED PREDICTABILITY ISSUES AND LACK OF
RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY.

MODELS COMING INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH EVOLUTION OF THE
MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES MON NIGHT/TUES...WITH A STRONG UPPER LOW
CURLING THROUGH ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION
MON NIGHT AND PUSHING THROUGH ON TUE. MAIN PREDICTABILITY ISSUE IS
THE TIMING OF SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH IN THE
FLOW...WHICH WILL DETERMINE HOW WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE AHEAD/ALONG THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MON NIGHT/TUE. FOR
NOW WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS. TOO MANY QUESTIONS TO GIVE ANY
DETAILS ON SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING THREAT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH NEAR ZONAL UPPER FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.

NOT MUCH BEYOND PERHAPS A DIURNALLY INDUCED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...MAINLY ACROSS
INTERIOR LOCATIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE SOUTH WILL SLIDE EAST OVERNIGHT.
A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ON SUNDAY.

VFR WITH DIMINISHING SW-W WINDS TONIGHT. FLOW SHOULD BACK MORE
SW-S AND PICK UP BEGINNING LATE MORNING SUNDAY...REACHING SPEEDS
10-15 KT BY AFTERNOON. GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 20 KT RANGE WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR TERMINALS. ALSO...A FEW HIGHER
SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. A FEW
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF NYC. CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME...HOWEVER ANY OF THESE SHOWERS COULD RESULT IN LOWER
CIGS...BUT SHOULD STILL REMAIN VFR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MON THROUGH WED...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT TSTMS COULD BRING MVFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS IN THE EVENING. MAINLY VFR OVERNIGHT...WITH
PATCHY MVFR VSBY AT OUTLYING TERMINALS WHERE ANY RAIN FALLS.

.MON-TUE...SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT TSTMS COULD BRING MVFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS.

.WED-THU...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
SEAS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY BUILD TO MARGINAL ADVISORY CONDS ON THE
OCEAN WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT. BEST CHANCE OF MARGINAL SCA
WIND/SEAS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS WESTERN OCEAN WATERS AND ENTRANCE
OF NY HARBOR WITH COASTAL JET FORMATION.

MARGINAL SCA SEAS ARE POSSIBLE INTO MON OR TUE...BUT LOOKING LESS
LIKELY WITH WEAK GRADIENT. A LIKELY RETURN TO SUB SCA CONDS FOR
MID THROUGH LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE PROBABILITY FOR SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS LOW THROUGH
THE NEXT WEEK. WITH RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL...ANY ORGANIZED STRONG
CONVECTION TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WOULD PRESENT A LOCALIZED THREAT
FOR URBAN...POOR DRAINAGE AND SMALL STREAM FLASH FLOODING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
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&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC/NV
HYDROLOGY...BC/NV