Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 270523 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 123 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... JUST A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURLY GRIDS TO REFLECT THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. FORECAST IS OTHERWISE ON TRACK. SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE TRI-STATE FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH AND WEST OF THE NYC METRO THAT MAY HOLD SOME SCT CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE AND SOUTHERN CANADA MOVES THROUGH. SOME CIRRUS COULD BRUSH BY THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT AS WELL. OTHERWISE...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS...DRY AIR...AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE A MAV/MET BLEND AND YIELD SEASONABLE READINGS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S INLAND...MIDDLE 60S IN THE NYC METRO...AND LOWER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS LIFTS NORTH AND EAST INTO EASTERN CANADA ON THURSDAY AND IS REPLACED BY WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT THAT WILL REINFORCE THE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON THURSDAY WITH JUST SOME SCT AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH DAYTIME HEATING. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ARE FORECAST. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...DRY AIR...AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S INLAND TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S NEAR THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LARGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT MAY CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWS TO MID 60S INLAND AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST. HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND REMAIN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VFR. 050-060 SCT-BKN CU THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT NW WINDS BACK TO THE W/WSW AND LIKELY BECOME GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. SW FLOW LIKELY AT KGON IN AFTERNOON. S SEABREEZE NOT EXPECTED FOR COASTAL TERMINALS...BUT SW/SSW SEABREEZE POSSIBLE AT KJFK IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH LESSER POTENTIAL AT KBDR/KISP. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES LIKELY AT COASTAL TERMINALS. LOW PROB OF ISOLATED AFT/EVE SHRA/TSRA SUN AND MON FOR WESTERN TERMINALS. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS. WINDS ON THE OCEAN WILL BE 10-15 KT ON THE OCEAN WITH LESS THAN 10 KT ON THE LI SOUND AND THE SURROUNDING BAYS. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT. BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WATERS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FIG/DS NEAR TERM...JC/DS SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...FIG AVIATION...BC MARINE...FIG/DS HYDROLOGY...FIG/DS

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