Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 240021 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 821 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS... BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH MIDWEEK...MOVING EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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WITH THE SEA BREEZE WELL ESTABLISHED THIS EVENING DEW POINTS BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE HAVE INCREASED QUICKLY AND TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN. FARTHER INLAND DEW POINTS WERE MORE SLOWLY INCREASING...MAINLY ACROSS NEW JERSEY AND INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO SET UP. MINOR CHANGES TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS INTO LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH. A CLEAR SKY FOR THE MOST PART...BUT SOME CIRRUS COULD STREAM IN. A LIGHT WSW FLOW AND RISING DEW POINTS SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING LOW ENOUGH TO FORM FROST ACROSS THE NORTHERN FRINGE ZONES. LOW TEMPS BELOW NORMAL OUTSIDE OF THE CITY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH A MODERATE WSW-SW FLOW OVER THE REGION. THIS...ALONG WITH RISING TEMPS ALOFT...WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPS TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL...EVEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT THAT WILL BE EXPOSED TO A FLOW OFF THE COLDER WATERS. LOOKS LIKE SHOULD MIX UP TO 850MB WHERE THE TEMP IS FORECAST TO BE 9-10C IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS THEREFORE MOSTLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S WITH SPOTTY 80 DEGREE READINGS IN THE CITY AND WEST OF THE HUDSON. IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER SUNNY DAY WITH JUST SOME CIRRUS FROM TIME TO TIME. THESE HIGH CLOUDS THEN THICKEN AND LOWER SOMEWHAT SUNDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPS. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN SEA BOARD THROUGH TUESDAY AS SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. A LOW AND SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL RESULT IN A WEAK WARM FRONT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO EASTERN UPSTATE NEW YORK. MUCH OF THE LIFT WITH THE FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE REGION AND REMOVED POPS FOR MONDAY...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS MAY BE JUST NORTH OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. THE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH REMAIN IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW KEEPING A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE. FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS AND INTO THE EVENINGS EACH DAY THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AS WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS DEVELOP. THE AIR MASS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH MINIMAL CAPE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY. IF THE HIGH AND RIDGE ARE STRONGER AND REMAIN IN PLACE...THE INLAND AREAS MAY REMAIN DRY. AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND WEAKENS FRIDAY THERE WILL BE BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...AND FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...NOT HIGHLY CONFIDENT THAT THE RIDGE WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY AND KEPT POPS AT CHANCE. FINALLY WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH DEW POINTS RISING...AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THERE WILL BE THE INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. MAY BE MORE OF A STRATUS DECK ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND POSSIBLY COASTAL CONNECTICUT WITH THE FLOW MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THAN SOUTH. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE EWD THROUGH SUN. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. COASTAL SEABREEZES WILL GIVE WAY TO A LIGHT SYNOPTIC SW FLOW TONIGHT...INCREASING AGAIN AFT SUNRISE ON SUN. GUSTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND THIS WILL CAUSE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN WHETHER TRUE SEABREEZE DIRECTIONS AT KJFK/KLGA/KBDR/KGON/KISP CAN BE REALIZED IN THE AFTN. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR. SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON. .MONDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE STRATUS AND/OR FOG LATE AT NIGHT/MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR. LOW CHC SHRA/TSTM AT KSWF EACH AFTN. COASTAL SEA BREEZES LIKELY EACH AFTERNOON...WITH S-SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
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&& .MARINE...
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SEAS EAST OF MORICHES INLET HAVE SUBSIDED QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WERE ABOUT A FOOT LOWER THAN FORECAST. OTHERWISE FORECAST WIND AND SEAS ARE ON TRACK AND NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE AT THIS TIME. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES WEAR OFF. WSW TO SW WINDS IN GENERAL TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE SUN AFTERNOON...AND THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME NEAR- SHORE GUSTS REACHING 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NOT ENOUGH TO GO WITH SCA HOWEVER. SEAS ON THE OCEAN COULD COME CLOSE TO 5 FT SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MOSTLY 2 OR 4 FT NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEAKEN SOMEWHAT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE RIDGE...AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE FORECAST WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE SHORTWAVE. WITH DEW POINTS RISING OVER THE WATERS MONDAY INTO THURSDAY...BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY. THE WIND AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WARMER AIR MOVING OVER THE COOLER WATERS. HOWEVER...SOME NEAR SHORE GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOONS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. WITH A PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. AT THIS TIME THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT WITH SEAS THEN REMAINING AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS INTO THURSDAY.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/MET NEAR TERM...JC/MET SHORT TERM...JC LONG TERM...MET AVIATION...24 MARINE...JC/MET HYDROLOGY...JC/MET

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