Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 201539 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1139 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Tropical cyclone Jose well southeast of the twin forks of Long Island will slowly move northeast through tonight and will remain well offshore through Thursday. High pressure builds over the area Thursday and remains in place through early next week as Jose weakens and slowly meanders to our southeast. Please refer to National Hurricane Center products for more details on Jose. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Jose was located about 200 mikes southeast of the twin forks of Long Island late this morning and will continue moving slowly to the northeast away from the coast through this afternoon. Rain bands continue to spiral across portions of southeastern Connecticut and eastern Long Island and will keep chance probabilities through this afternoon across the eastern zones. Please refer to National Hurricane Center products for more details on Jose. Increasing subsidence on the backside of Jose and from building upper ridging should prevent the rain from progressing westward. North to northeast winds will continue with occasional gusts 30 to 35 MPH across the twin forks. The main concern today will be from high surf and dangerous rip currents at ocean beaches. Minor coastal flooding is also possible. Mostly cloudy to overcast skies will continue across eastern Long Island and southeast Connecticut through the day. Further west, at least partial clearing is anticipated, especially this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... Jose will meander south and east of Cape Cod tonight into Thursday. Winds will weaken during this time, but still remain gusty across Long Island and southeast Connecticut. This is where the tightest pressure gradient will be located between high pressure to the north and west and Jose offshore. Otherwise, skies will continue to gradually clear overnight and should largely be Mostly sunny on Thursday. Deep upper ridging builds to the north and west as Jose meanders offshore. Drier low level air should work in on Thursday as well with dew points falling into the upper 50s and lower 60s. Temperatures however will be quite warm, reaching the middle 80s in NE NJ and NYC metro with upper 70s and lower 80s elsewhere. Dangerous rip currents will likely continue at Atlantic ocean beaches on Thursday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Lots of uncertainty in the long term continues. Most of this is due to the uncertainty surrounding Jose`s ultimate track and strength. Stay tuned for official track and intensity forecasts regarding Jose from the National Hurricane Center. For now it appears that Jose and/or remnants will meander about 250- 300 miles to the southeast of Montauk Thursday through this weekend. This would likely keep the associated rain shield just off to the east. This combined with high pressure over the area will then likely keep us dry through the period with above- normal temperatures as heights build aloft. It still may be on the breezy side, particularly on Thursday and Friday. For Monday and Tuesday, will continue to keep both periods dry for consistency while global models attempt to sort out the details of Jose from run to run. Rough surf will continue to be likely at least through the end of this week and may continue into early next week. && .AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Tropical cyclone Jose will remain off southern New England coast today. Bands of showers pivoting to the east may occasionally move into KGON, however, conditions will more likely remain dry. Intensity is mainly light although vsby could briefly drop to MVFR. Otherwise...ceilings are mainly VFR in the city terminals, although there may be occasional MVFR ceilings at times. Pockets of MVFR ceilings for KHPN and KTEB, but expect VFR by 18Z. Ceilings improve to MVFR- VFR this afternoon into the evening hours for eastern terminals. Gusty N flow will gradually shift to the NNW. Gusts will continue in the 20-30 kt range at the city terminals, and closer to 25-35 kt at eastern terminals. Winds gradually decrease through the evening. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Ceilings may vary between 025-035 through 18Z. The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is GREEN, which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud. KLGA TAF Comments: Ceilings may vary between 025-035 through 18Z. The afternoon KLGA haze potential forecast is GREEN, which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud. KEWR TAF Comments: Ceilings may vary between 025-035 through 18Z. The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN, which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud. KTEB TAF Comments: MVFR ceilings through 18Z, VFR expected thereafter. VFR ceilings may occur +/- 1-2 hours than is forecast. KHPN TAF Comments: MVFR ceilings through 18Z, VFR expected thereafter. VFR ceilings may occur +/- 1-2 hours than is forecast. KISP TAF Comments: Gusts may be stronger than forecast. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .Thursday-Friday...VFR. Gusty N winds around 20 kt east of city terminals. .Saturday-Sunday...VFR.
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&& .MARINE... Jose was approximately 150 to 200 nautical miles southeast of Montauk Point late this morning and was tracking to the northeast at 6 kt. Jose will meander through Thursday while weakening. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official track and intensity forecasts for Jose. Winds and gusts on the ocean waters east of Fire Island Inlet were remaining below tropical storm force and are expected to remain below through this afternoon. There may be an occasional gust to 35 kt through this afternoon, especially across the outer ocean forecast zones. The tropical storm warning was cancelled and replaced with a small craft advisory that will continue through Thursday on the ocean waters. Small craft mariners are advised to remain in port at least through today with the possibility of 35 kt gusts. A small craft advisory remains in effect for the Long Island bays. The SCA on the eastern Sound continues through tonight. Ocean seas will gradually subside today through tonight. They will remain elevated into Thursday due to lingering swell from offshore Jose. Waves may also be close to 5 ft across the far eastern Sound today into tonight. Uncertainty regarding winds and seas increases from Thursday night through Sunday due mostly to the uncertainty of Jose`s eventual track and strength during this period. What seems more probable is that ocean seas remain at SCA levels due to a lingering swell. For now, it appears that gusts over 25 kt would be possible mainly east of moriches inlet and nearby the Race and Gardiner`s bay for Thursday and Friday before winds subside further and likely remain below advisory criteria through the weekend. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic problems are anticipated through early next week. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Rising water levels combined with incoming energetic swells from Jose, will bring dangerous surf of 8 TO 10 ft early today. This will cause widespread dune erosion (waves hitting base of dunes), and localized washovers (wave overtopping dunes) through today. With good confidence in track of Jose 1500-200 miles to the SE of Long Island, have weighted forecast towards most likely scenario. This points to potential for 1 1/2 to 2 ft of surge during the morning high tide cycle, which would result in widespread minor to moderate coastal flooding. These surge values will result in 2 to 2 1/2 ft inundation in our most vulnerable locations along the southern bays of LI/NYC and Peconic/Gardiners Bay, with generally 1 to locally 2 ft across other vulnerable coastal areas. Wave action on top of elevated waters levels will exacerbate impacts along the beachfront. High surf will fall this afternoon into tonight, but remain rough through the week. Additionally...minor coastal impacts are likely to continue across vulnerable locales through the remainder of the week as Jose sits about 250 miles SE of the region as Ekman pumping keeps elevated water levels along the coast. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None. NY...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075- 080-081-178-179. High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for NYZ075-080-081- 178-179. Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT Thursday for NYZ080-178-179. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ335- 338-345. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ330-340. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ350-353- 355.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MET NEAR TERM...MET SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...BC/JC AVIATION...JP MARINE...BC/DS/MET HYDROLOGY...BC/DS/MET TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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