Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 181454 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1054 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST...AND REMAIN THE MAIN FEATURE OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE COMING WEEK...AS MULTIPLE WEAK LOWS PASS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL JET SOUTH OF IT MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH TODAY...TO OVER NOVA SCOTIA. THIS WILL LEAVE THE LOCAL REGION IN LESS OF A HEIGHT GRADIENT AND THEREBY LESS OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE DEEPER TODAY WITH THE HIGH SITUATED TO THE NORTH...YIELDING NW-W FLOW TO START. THIS DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD INHIBIT SEA BREEZE FORMATION UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. SCT CU ARE ALREADY FORMING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS NORTH/WEST INVOF A WEAK SFC TROUGH...AND SHOULD SPREAD SE TOWARD THE COAST ALONG WITH THE TROUGH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE 80-85. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL JET SOUTH OF IT MOVE FARTHER NORTHEAST...TO OVER NEWFOUNDLAND THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAVE THE REGION IN A SPLIT FLOW JET STRUCTURE...WHERE THE REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET. THE WEATHER WILL BE QUIET AND DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS...LEAVING A DIFFUSE PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS WILL BECOME VERY LIGHT AND STILL CONTINUED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH SMALL SCALE RIDGING ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. USED A MAV/ECS BLEND FOR MIN TEMPS...LEANING TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE. FOR TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES FARTHER EASTWARD...BEGINNING TO BUILD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL SET UP MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE WINDS. LIGHTER WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND LESS VEERING WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST WHILE INTERIOR SPOTS WILL BE NEARLY THE SAME AS THE DAY BEFORE. MAX TEMPS FOR TUESDAY WERE A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE THEREFORE FOR A FEW SMALL AREAS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AT THE START OF THE PERIOD A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE REGION FROM UPSTATE NEW YORK TO SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...WHILE A CLOSED LOW REMAINS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIME. A SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TODAY WILL MOVE INTO THE RIDGE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CRAVE OUT A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY WHICH THE REMAINS THROUGH SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIME AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES. WHILE THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A DRIER FORECAST WILL STILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES WEST OF THE REGION. THERE IS ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THERE IS ALSO UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH WHICH COULD BUILD BACK WEST THROUGH THE WEEK...AT LEAST KEEPING EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY. IF THE HIGH BUILDS FARTHER WEST THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA COULD BE DRY. BY LATE IN THE WEEK INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE HIGH DOES BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA. WITH A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH THROUGH THE WEEK COOLER THAN NORMAL AIR WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL ALSO BE PERSISTENT AND MUCH OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE LOW CLOUDINESS. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THRU TUESDAY. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW WEAKENS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. VARIABLE WINDS AND SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE THEN DEVELOPS. TRUE SEA BREEZE EXPECTED LATE KJFK AND EVENTUALLY KLGA. WIND SPEEDS MAINLY BLW 10KT THRU THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KEWR. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SHIFTING WINDS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO. AN OCCASIONAL GUST POSSIBLE. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SHIFTING WINDS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO. AN OCCASIONAL GUST POSSIBLE. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SHIFTING WINDS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO. GUSTS MAY BECOME OCCASIONAL. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SHIFTING WINDS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO. AN OCCASIONAL GUST POSSIBLE. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS:TIMING OF SHIFTING WINDS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO. AN OCCASIONAL GUST POSSIBLE. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SHIFTING WINDS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .TUESDAY...VFR. .WEDNESDAY...ISOLD SHRA/TSTM POSSIBLE...MAINLY WESTERN TERMINALS. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSTMS. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. .THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MVFR POSSIBLE. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH TUESDAY WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS ON TUESDAY. OVERALL...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAKENING AND WAVES AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THIS PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SERIES OF LOWS PASS WEST AND SOUTH. AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. WIND AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. HOWEVER...WITH THE EAST FLOW...STRENGTHENING A FEW KNOTS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MAY ALLOW SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS TO BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT...MAINLY ACROSS THE WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET. && .HYDROLOGY... SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JM/MET NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/JM SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM...MET AVIATION...JMC MARINE...GOODMAN/JM/MET HYDROLOGY...JM/MET

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