Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 140521 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 121 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS HIGH PASSES OFFSHORE MONDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT...THEN PASSES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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SKIES HAVE CLEARED. DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO DROP. SOME GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY DAYBREAK. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL - CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... SW-WSW FLOW ALOFT SETS UP OVER THE AREA SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF NORTHERN STREAM CUTOFF ANCHORED OVER UPPER HUDSON BAY. WITH BEST DYNAMICS WELL TO THE NORTH AND LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE DUE TO SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN...SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER. FOR HIGHS SUNDAY USED A BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 900 HPA ACROSS NORTHERN INTERIOR ZONES AND 925 HPA ELSEWHERE - PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN ACROSS NORTHERN INTERIOR ZONES TO BETTER REFLECT IMPACT OF HIGHER ELEVATIONS THERE. VALUES SHOULD GENERALLY BE 5 DEGREES OR SO BELOW NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... MEAN TROUGH OVER THE NE QUARTER OF THE NATION SENDS A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS THROUGH THE AREA THIS WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN BETWEEN AND SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND... THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. FIRST COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUE MORNING. THERE ARE SMALL TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS. THIS FRONT HAS DECENT UPPER SUPPORT...BUT NOT MUCH INSTABILITY...SO LOOKING FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS SE FROM CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING WILL REINFORCE THE DRY...COOL AIR ALREADY IN PLACE. USED A BLEND OF WPC AND MOSGUIDE FOR TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGHS AND LOWS WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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HIGH PRES BUILDS IN TODAY AND REMAINS THRU MON. VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHTENING WINDS BECOMING VRB DURING THE AFTN WITH WEAK SEA BREEZE COMPONENT FLOW AT TIMES. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .SUN NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR. LIGHT WINDS. .TUESDAY...SUB-VFR IN -RA LIKELY. .WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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EXPECT WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT EARLY THIS MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT. WHILE THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL TO MAYBE FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT IN A NARROW WINDOW THROUGH 12Z OR SO...WILL NOT ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL OCEAN ZONES AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN CONTROL. A COLD FRONT MOVES TROUGH TUE MORNING AND ANOTHER LATE WED INTO THU. A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT IS POSSIBLE IN THE NW FLOW BEHIND EACH COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION...SE SWELLS FROM DISTANT TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD COULD REACH THE REGION STARTING WEDNESDAY. UNDERCUT THE WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE BY ABOUT A FOOT AS SWELLS APPEAR TO BE OVERDONE AT THIS TIME.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... DRY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING LOOK TO AVERAGE AROUND 1/4 INCH. NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/DW NEAR TERM...MALOIT/DW/PW SHORT TERM...MALOIT LONG TERM...DW AVIATION...JMC MARINE...MALOIT/DW/PW HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/DW

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