Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 090549 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1249 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... AN INTENSE STORM TO THE EAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND PASS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL THEN SPIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWLY DEPARTING TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AN ARCTIC AIRMASS BUILDS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... MULTIPLE PASSING 700-500 HPA VORTICITY MAXIMA OVERNIGHT WILL BRING SCT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...LOOKING AT REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS...ALSO COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED SNOW BANDS...WITH MODERATE TO POSSIBLE HEAVY SNOW FALL. AS A RESULT...WHILE MOST AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE UNDER AN INCH...COULD SEE 1-2 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW ACROSS MAINLY S CT ZONES OVERNIGHT. SNOW/POPS REFINED BASED ON BLEND OF HRRR/RAP. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO REMAINDER OF GRIDS TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH ALOFT SHIFTS CLOSER TO THE REGION. THIS WILL HELP ENERGIZE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH. MODELS IN AGREEMENT OF AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW...AND AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS NORTH...IT LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SNOW FROM THIS. ALL MODELS KEEP THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST QPF JUST TO OUR SOUTH...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY FURTHER NORTHWARD SHIFT TREND. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH JUST A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DURING THE DAYTIME. HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY POPS THEN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE TROUGH AND EXTRA LIFT SUPPLIED FROM SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT. UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS CAN CHANGE DEPENDING ON WHERE THE INVERTED TROUGH ULTIMATELY ENDS UP. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A LONGWAVE EASTERN TROUGH WILL REMAIN WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FINALLY MOVES TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR...THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON...PUSHES INTO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FORECAST AND MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS WEDNESDAY WITH A TROUGH REMAINING MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WATERS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...PROBABLY AN INCH OR SO...MAINLY NORTH. THE FIRST PUSH OF COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA MOVES IN FOR THURSDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN SHORTWAVES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL BRING AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON MOVING IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAINING INTO SUNDAY. THIS LOW BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO TRACK WEST OF THE REGION...MOVING THROUGH WESTERN NEW YORK STATE...WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING 15 TO AS MUCH AS 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT MODIFICATION TO THE AIRMASS MONDAY. CURRENTLY WIDESPREAD RECORD LOWS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH THE ARCTIC OUT BREAK. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THE AFD FOR DETAILS. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 08Z. NO ACCUMULATION IS FORECAST AT THIS TIME. FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE IFR OR MVFR AT MOST TERMINALS...BUT SHOULD SETTLE AT MVFR AFTER 08Z. THESE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. NE WINDS 5 TO AROUND 10 KT EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SNOW OVERSPREADS THE TERMINALS AFTER 00Z WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. .THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR. NW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS OT 25 KT POSSIBLE. .FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. && .MARINE... ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO REMAINDER OF GRIDS TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH...WITH GUSTS ON THE EASTERN SOUND FALLING BELOW 25 KT...SO HAVE CANCELLED THE SCA THERE. SCA LEVEL WINDS ARE STILL PRESENT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS...AND SHOULD DIMINISH FROM W TO E THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS WELL AS THE EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND. SCA REMAINS UP THIS EVENING FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND DUE TO THIS AND SOME HIGHER 5 FT SEAS FOR EXTREME EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND. THE OCEAN WILL HAVE ELEVATED SEAS LINGERING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SCA LEVEL WINDS ALSO REDEVELOP ON THE OCEAN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. NON-OCEAN WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH WINDS 10 KT OR LESS THROUGHOUT BY TUESDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ON THE OCEAN WATERS WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST WATERS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. GUSTS THURSDAY ON THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AS THE FIRST PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW AND AN ARCTIC FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN. && .HYDROLOGY... ONLY A LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL FROM NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...SO NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED. LITTLE PRECIPITATION...IN THE FORM OF SNOW...IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... EXTENDED COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR SW SUFFOLK COUNTY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AS WATER LEVELS SHOULD NOT COME BELOW MINOR FLOOD STAGE UNTIL AROUND THEN. ALSO...MONITORING THE BATTERY CLOSELY...IF DEPARTURES DO NOT FALL BELOW 1.7 FT...CURRENTLY AT 2.2 FT AND SLOWLY FALLING BY HIGH TIDE...COULD TOUCH OR JUST GO ABOVE THE MINOR COASTAL FLOOD BENCHMARK WITH TUESDAY MORNINGS HIGH TIDE. A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT MIGHT NEED TO BE ISSUED DEPENDING ON EXACTLY HOW FAST THE DEPARTURE FALLS OFF. POTENTIAL FOR MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL IMPACTS INTO WEDNESDAY DUE TO A RECENT NEW MOON AND A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURES AFFECTING THE REGION. STRONG OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS OVERNIGHT. WITH LOWER ASTRONOMICAL TIDES OVERNIGHT AND LIGHTER WINDS...WATER LEVELS SHOULD BE ABOUT 1/2 FT LOWER THAN THIS MORNING FOR MOST SPOTS. EXPECTATION OF WIDESPREAD MINOR FLOODING FOR NY/NJ HARBOR...SOUTH SHORE BAY OF NYC...AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND. MODERATE FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BAY LOCALES ALONG THE WESTERN GREAT SOUTH BAY. FOR TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLES...SPRING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL PEAKING. IN ADDITION...WINDS SHOULD VEER MORE TO THE NE AS ADDITIONAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE REGION...WITH MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND AND NYC. THE HIGH END OF THE FORECAST RANGE COULD COME CLOSE TO THE WATER LEVELS REACHED THIS MORNING FOR THE BAYS OF NYC AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND. THEREAFTER...MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS POSSIBLE TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE. MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING POTENTIAL GREATEST FOR SOUTH SHORE BAY LOCALES. HIGH SURF OF 6 TO 10 FT WILL CONTINUE A MODERATE THREAT FOR DUNE TOE EROSION ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES...AND A LOCALIZED POTENTIAL FOR OVERWASHES ON FIRE ISLAND. THIS IS BASED ON MODELED IMPACTS OF GALE CENTER FROM THE USGS COASTAL CHANGE HAZARDS PORTAL. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR CTZ009. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ009-010. NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NYZ071-078-177. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ071-073-078-177. COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ075-080-178-179. HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ080-081- 178-179. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ074. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ079-081. NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ006-106-108. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353- 355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/MET NEAR TERM...MALOIT SHORT TERM...JC LONG TERM...MET AVIATION...DS MARINE...MALOIT/JM/MET HYDROLOGY...JC/MET TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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