Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 302143 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 543 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...DEPARTING FRIDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WEEK. IN BETWEEN....WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL NY/PA CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND ARE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WITH HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. WITH REGARDS TO THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR NYC...WILL KEEP IT IN EFFECT AS SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 70S...AND WITH THE RAIN...EXPECT SFC DEWPOINTS TO REMAIN HIGH. TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND SOMEWHAT IN BETWEEN STORMS...AND IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO REACH A HEAT INDEX OF 95. HOWEVER...IF IT DOES NOT OCCUR PRIOR TO 6PM...IT MAY NOT HAPPEN. SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH STORMS DEPARTING EASTERN AREAS AROUND MIDNIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE THROUGH UNTIL LATE...SO WITH ABUNDANT LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AWAY FROM THE CITY...WITH MOST FOG ACROSS EASTERN CT AND EASTERN LI. THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S IN/AROUND NYC...AND IN THE 60S ELSEWHERE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND DROPS INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. FRIDAY NIGHT. CONDS WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...AND AROUND 90 IN/AROUND NYC/NORTHEAST NJ. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE MUCH LESS HUMID AS DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 50S AND LOW 60S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 70S IN/AROUND NYC AND IN THE 60S ELSEWHERE. THEE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES ON FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... FOR THE MOST PART...MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDS ON TAP FOR THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. FOR NOW...EXPECTING POSSIBLE SHOWERS/TSTMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN DRY CONDS PREVAIL UNTIL THE NEXT BOUNDARY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP WITH EACH FRONT...AND IN BETWEEN...WEAK HIGH PRES WILL RULE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A BIT MORE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY. TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE LOW OVER THE WEEKEND...AND THEN WILL START TO CREEP UP NEXT WEEK AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SFC DEWPOINTS CREEP UP THROUGH THE 60S. && .AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A COLD FRONT OVER ERN PA WILL PASS THRU THE REGION TNGT. LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS EAST OF THE NYC AREA TERMINALS WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR. IN THE LINE OF CONVECTION MVFR TO BRIEFLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY. BEHIND THE LINE OF CONVECTION LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. MAINLY SSW FLOW TIL THIS EVE WHEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE WSW THEN NW. SPEED AND DIRECTION VARIABILITY CAN BE EXPECTED INVOF TSTMS. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SHIFTS TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AROUND 03Z. BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SHIFTS TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AROUND 03Z. BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SHIFTS TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT 02Z TO 03Z. BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SHIFTS TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT 02Z TO 03Z. BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SHIFTS TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AROUND 03Z. BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TSTMS WERE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AT 2130Z WITH MVFR TO BRIEFLY IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIEST PORTION OF THE CONVECTION. BEHIND THE LINE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... .FRI AFTN...VFR WITH W WINDS. .SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR WITH SW FLOW. .MON...INCREASING S FLOW WITH A CHC OF TSTMS. .TUE...CHC TSTMS. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W. && .MARINE... GUSTY WINDS ON THE WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UP ON EASTERN LI SOUND/LI BAYS UNTIL 8 PM FOR 25 KT WIND GUSTS. FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL DIMINISH TO SUB-SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING...BUT SEAS UP AROUND 5 FT WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO SUB-SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TRANQUIL CONDS TONIGHT FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WEEK. OCEAN SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FT DURING THIS TIME DUE TO A PREVAILING S/SW FLOW. && .HYDROLOGY... BASIN AVG QPF OF APPROXIMATELY 1/2 INCH POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...LIKELY ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS AND LOCATIONS NEAR NYC AND TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WITH PW OVER 2 INCHES...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME. THERE WILL ALSO THOUGH BE A POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING BUT EXPECT THIS TO BE MORE ISOLATED. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ072>075-176- 178. HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075- 080-081-178-179. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330- 340-345. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ355. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPS NEAR TERM...MPS SHORT TERM...MPS LONG TERM...MPS AVIATION...MET MARINE...MPS HYDROLOGY...MPS

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