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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KOKX 192329
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
729 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...A
SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK...SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. WILL UPDATE HOURLY
GRIDS BASED ON LATEST OBS.

WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS DUE TO CLEAR SKIES...A
DRY AIRMASS...AND NEARLY CALM WINDS...CAN EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP
FAIRLY QUICKLY BETWEEN SUNSET AND 9-10 PM. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TONIGHT. WEIGHTED LOW TEMPERATURES
HEAVILY ON THE MAV GUIDANCE AND THIS YIELDS READINGS IN THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND LOW TO MIDDLE 50S CLOSER TO
THE COAST. NEW YORK CITY SHOULD SEE READINGS NEAR 60 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY SETTING UP A
RETURN S-SW FLOW. SEA BREEZES SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM DEVELOPING
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. EVEN WITH A SW-S FLOW...SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S WITH DRIER AIR
FROM ALOFT MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ARE FORECAST.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S
T0 LOWER 60S IN THE CITY ARE FORECAST WHICH ARE STILL BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT ARE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RISING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS SAT THRU
MON.

GLOBAL FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD SHOWING THE LOCAL AREA ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER LVL WESTERLIES AS HIGH PRES ALOFT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA.

A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE EAST WITH THE MEAN FLOW.
THESE WEAK WAVES WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME.

THE FIRST SHORT WAVE IS FCST TO ADVECT SE TOWARD THE AREA FRI
AFTN/EVE. BECAUSE OF LIMITED MOISTURE..DECIDED TO MAINTAIN THE
EXISTING DRY FCST ALTHOUGH A SHOWER IS POSSIBLE NW OF NYC.

THE SECOND SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHORT WAVE IS ALSO FCST TO ADVECT SE
TOWARD THE AREA SAT AFTN - NIGHT. WITH INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THIS SYS...LOW CHC POPS WERE CONTINUED FOR THE REGION FROM
NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.

ADDITIONAL WEAK WAVES ARE FORECAST MON - WED...BRINGING A CHC OF
MAINLY AFTN/EVE SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 95 DEGREES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. TEMPS ARE FCST TO SLOWLY RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S
SUNDAY THROUGH WED. WITH MODERATE HUMIDITY...IT WILL FEEL
UNCOMFORTABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. VARIABLE IN THE MORNING...THEN SOUTH WINDS
PREVAIL IN THE AFTERNOON. LOCAL SEA BREEZES MAY RESULT IN WIND
SPEEDS AROUND 15 KTS AT KJFK BY MID AFTERNOON.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SOUTH WIND DIMINISHES THIS EVENING.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NW WIND THIS EVENING...WITH A CHANCE FOR A
WIND SHIFT TO THE SE DUE TO APPROACHING SEA BREEZE.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU NIGHT-FRI...VFR. PREVAILING SW WINDS.
.SAT-MON...MAINLY VFR. AREAS OF MVFR OR LWR IN THE MRNG. ISOLD-SCT
AFTN/EVE TSTMS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY N AND W OF NYC. SW WINDS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT WITH WINDS NO
GREATER THAN 5 KT. THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY
SETTING UP A S-SW FLOW. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS AROUND 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT OTHERWISE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL THEREFORE PREVAIL
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OF 25 KT AND 5 FT.

S-SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 2 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN AND COASTAL WATERS AND 1 FOOT OR LOWER ELSEWHERE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FCST.

A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS OF LOW PRES WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING DAILY STARTING
SATURDAY. LESS THAN 1/4 INCH RAIN IS LIKELY WITH EACH ROUND OF
SHOWERS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/DS
NEAR TERM...MPS/DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...GC/DS
HYDROLOGY...GC/DS