Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 231019 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 519 AM EST Fri Feb 23 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure gives way to a warm front, then cold front late today and tonight. Low pressure moving into the upper Great Lakes will send a warm front toward the area Saturday night into Sunday, then a trailing weak cold front will pass through Sunday night. High pressure will build in from Monday through Wednesday. Another low forming over the Plains states during mid week will then likely approach from Wednesday night into Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Main forecast challenge is onset of rain, and expected temperatures during that time across NW zones. Main concern for any freezing rain is across Orange County later this morning. Analysis of various model and blended model temperature fields suggests temps warm to just above freezing across the interior by noon, with the majority of the area climbing above the freezing mark before that. This is thanks to departing high off the New England coast, and shifting winds to the east/southeast which will allow for at least some warming. At this time, do not have confidence for a winter weather advisory issuance as most model solutions delay rain onset until the afternoon. Latest radar loops and hourly high resolution guidance indicates initial batch of rain passes near NYC or just south. However, there could be low chances for patchy areas of rain as WAA increases, and low level lift increases. If any activity develops, may have to issue a Special Weather Statement, for areas of a light ice accum across those NW zones. Otherwise, rain chances increase from west to east this afternoon as the warm front draws near. Mainly light rain is expected, with a tenth of an inch to a quarter inch of rain accum. Temperatures warm through the 40s, and should rise just above 40 near the coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... A warm front followed quickly by a cold front pass tonight as low pressure tracks well to the north. Any lingering light rain ends this evening, and some breaks in the clouds are possible as high pressure builds across the Great Lakes Region. As winds shift to the SW, then west, and plenty of clouds remain, expect temperatures to hold steady for most of the night, mid 30s to around 40. On Saturday, high pressure to the north once again yields to an approaching low pressure center and warm front. Rain chances will increase late in the day ahead of this more robust system. Temperatures warm through the 40s, likely exceeding 50 degrees across the area. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... The last in a series of upper level impulses riding atop the upper ridge to our south will approach Sat night into Sunday, bringing a shot of moderate rain and gusty E winds ahead of a warm front lifting toward the area from the south. As the associated primary low lifts across the upper Great Lakes into Ontario, a weak triple- point low should form close to the area late day Sunday, with the chance that parts of Long Island could briefly get in the warm sector before a weak cold front passes through at night. Forecast for Mon calls for dry conditions as sfc high pressure builds in, but may have to keep an eye on a weak low passing to the south Mon night for any northward trend as its associated upper trough passes across. Broad upper ridging should build in its wake for Tue-Wed. High Temps Mon-Wed will be on the mild side, with highs close to 10 degrees above avg. A broad area of WAA ahead of low pressure forming over the Plains states should bring precip chances beginning Wed night, and then more so Thu into Thu night. Weak in-situ cold air damming as sfc high pressure pulls away could result in a period of light wintry wx well inland late Wed night into Thu morning, otherwise rain expected into Thu evening. Per current operational 00Z GFS/ECMWF forecast, a secondary low fcst to develop off the Mid Atlantic coast could pull enough cold air down from the N-NE to change precip back to snow or a wintry mix especially inland late Thu night. && .AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Strong high pressure shifts off the northeast coast today as another wave of low pressure approaches from the west. Varying flight categories this morning with MVFR at city terminals, VFR across Long Island and SE CT terminals, and IFR/LIFR across the Lower Hudson Valley. IFR is expected to gradually redevelop for most terminals this morning. Light rain develops late this morning into the afternoon and conditions may further deteriorate into the early evening. There is a small chance for light freezing rain at SWF this morning, but confidence is too low to include in the TAF at this time. NE-E wind 10 kt or less tonight becoming E to SE Friday. A brief period of LLWS will be possible Friday night. ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: There is a chance ceilings stay low end MVFR this morning, with IFR holding off until this afternoon once -RA develops. The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is YELLOW...which implies slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud. KLGA TAF Comments: There is a chance ceilings stay low end MVFR this morning, with IFR holding off until this afternoon once -RA develops. The afternoon KLGA haze potential forecast is YELLOW...which implies slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud. KEWR TAF Comments: There is a chance ceilings stay low end MVFR this morning, with IFR holding off until this afternoon once -RA develops. The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is YELLOW...which implies slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud. KTEB TAF Comments: There is a chance ceilings stay low end MVFR this morning, with IFR holding off until this afternoon once -RA develops. KHPN TAF Comments: IFR may develop several hours sooner than currently forecast. KISP TAF Comments: Ceilings may fluctuate between MVFR and VFR before 12z. Timing of lower ceilings this morning may be off by 1-3 hours. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... .Saturday...Mainly VFR. Chance rain late. .Saturday Night-Sunday...MVFR/IFR in rain. E winds G20-25KT on Sunday. .Sunday night...Becoming VFR. .Monday-Tuesday...VFR. && .MARINE... With gusty easterly winds this morning, and seas running around 5 ft, will maintain the SCA over the ocean waters. Conditions improve as a warm front, then cold front pass late in the day and this evening. SE winds shift to the west tonight, then lighten as they turn to the NW Saturday. E winds between departing high pressure and an approaching warm front should reach SCA levels on all waters late Sat night into Sunday morning. These winds could reach minimal gale force on the ocean Sunday morning. Too early for any headlines, but a gale watch might eventually be required if confidence in this scenario increases. Hazardous ocean seas could linger thereafter into Mon morning. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts are expected late today and tonight with rainfall amounts less than a quarter inch. Expecting up to an inch of rain on Sunday with the last in a series of passing disturbances. Another 1/2 to 1 inch liquid equivalent possible Wed night into Thu night, mostly in the form of rain. Rainfall intensity/duration do not suggest more than local nuisance ponding for Sunday. && .EQUIPMENT... NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO-35 (162.55 MHz) is off the air for an extended period of time. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ350- 353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Goodman/PW NEAR TERM...PW SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...Goodman AVIATION...DS MARINE...Goodman/PW HYDROLOGY...Goodman/PW EQUIPMENT...

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