Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 052058 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 358 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE PASSES TRACKS TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND REMAINS INTO THIS WEEKEND. DEEP LOW PRES WILL TRACK OVER THE ATLC LATE SUN NGT INTO MON. AN ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE AREA THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... A GENERAL 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH A FEW LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...HAS FALLEN ACROSS LI AND CT. HIGHEST AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF BOTH REGIONS. THE HEAVY WET SNOW...COMBINED WITH NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30S...WILL CONTINUE A DANGEROUS THREAT FOR DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES INTO THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS INTERIOR AND PINE BARRENS...COUPLE WITH FRESH SNOWPACK...ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL WELL DOWN INTO THE TEENS. ELSEWHERE LOWS IN THE 20S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A DEVELOPING SPLIT UPPER FLOW. A NORTHERN STREAM CUTOFF LOW WILL TRACK FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH RESULTANT CLIPPER SYSTEM TAKING A SIMILAR TRACK. MEANWHILE A CUTOFF LOW SEPARATES INTO THE SOUTHERN US SAT INTO SAT NIGHT FROM THE BASE OF AN APPROACHING CENTRAL US TROUGH...WITH RESULTANT LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST. FOR THE TRI-STATE...TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE CENTRAL US SAT MORNING...AND THEN SINKS SE OF THE REGION FOR SAT AFT INTO SAT NIGHT. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SATURDAY...BASED ON A SLIGHT REDUCTION OF GUIDANCE BLEND DUE TO NEW SNOWPACK. POTENTIAL FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS ACROSS INTERIOR ONCE AGAIN SAT NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE TEMPERED BY HIGH CLOUDS AND SW WINDS NEAR THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... LOW PRES WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFF THE SERN CONUS ON SUN. A WEAK RIDGE OF HI PRES OVER THE CWA DURING THIS TIME SO FAIR WX WITH TEMPS AROUND AVG. THE LOW THEN TRACKS NEWD OVER THE ATLC...REACHING A POINT ABOUT 350 MILES E OF THE BENCHMARK MON AFTN. THE MODELS ARE IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT WRT TO THE POSITION OF THE LOW...WITH THE 12Z GEFS/GEM/GFS/ECMWF SOLNS VIRTUALLY STACKED ON TOP OF EACH OTHER. THERE ARE SOME INTENSITY DIFFERENCES...BUT NOT MUCH. AT 18Z MON...THE ECMWF GETS DOWN TO 971...THE GEM 975 AND THE GFS 977. THE GFS AND GEM HAVE TRENDED WWD. THE ECMWF IS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED. BASED ON MODEL PROGS FOR THIS STORM EARLY THIS WEEK...MODEL PERFORMANCE THIS YEAR AND CURRENT TRENDS...EXPECTING THE STORM TO END UP TRACKING W OF THE CURRENT PROGS. AS A RESULT...FCST DATA IS AUGMENTED ABV THE SUPERBLEND FOR WINDS AND POPS. AT LEAST MINOR TIDAL FLOODING POSSIBLE WITH A NEW MOON ON MON. WILL START A MENTION IN THE HWO FOR THE SYS. ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT MODEL DATA SUGGESTS ONLY A GLANCING BLOW AT BEST...ALL INTERESTS SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO THIS STORM AS A MID 970S LOW TRACKING UP THE COAST WOULD HAVE SERIOUS IMPACTS. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO THE H5 LOW DROPPING INTO THE NERN CONUS TUE-THU. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF 2 WEAK LOWS TUE AND WED S OF THE REGION...PROVIDING CHCS FOR SNOW. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY...WITH THE ULTIMATE LATITUDE OF THE SYS DICTATING SNOW CHCS AND AMTS. IN ADDITION...IF THE PATTERN EASES UP AT ALL AND THE LOWS DEVELOP FURTHER NWD...SOME RAIN IN THE MIX PARTICULARLY CSTL AREAS. ARCTIC AIR STILL LOOKS POISED FOR THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF USHERS IT IN WITH A CLIPPER FRI WHICH WOULD BRING MORE SNOW CHCS. IN SUMMARY...THERE ARE CHCS FOR PCPN IN EVERY PERIOD OF THE EXTENDED. && .AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT. SNOW WILL COME TO AN END ACROSS KGON SHORTLY...WITH CONDS IMPROVING TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER SNOW ENDS. GUSTY NW WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC. GUSTS 25-30KT THRU EARLY EVENING...DIMINISHING LATE. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY END AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY END AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY END AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY END AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY END AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY END AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR. .MONDAY...CHC SUB-VFR AND SNOW...ESPECIALLY EAST OF CITY. CHC NE GUSTS AROUND 25KT. .TUESDAY...SUB-VFR WITH SNOW LIKELY...POSSIBLY MIXED PTYPE DURING THE AFTN AT THE COAST...TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE DAY. .WEDNESDAY...CHC SUB-VFR WITH -SHSN. NW GUST AROUND 25KT. && .MARINE... LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT. MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS GUSTS ON THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN OCEAN WATERS AND SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM W TO E THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS INTO THE WATERS. THE SCA SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL BE A BIT SLOWER TO SUBSIDE DUE TO SOUTHERLY SWELLS...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SCA TOWARDS SATURDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER...SUB SCA CONDS EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS INT SAT NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WINDS GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE ON OCEAN WATERS LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS ON SUN...THEN DEEP LOW PRES WILL TRACK E OF THE WATERS SUN NGT AND MON. THIS WILL PRODUCE AT LEAST SCA COND...WITH GALES POSSIBLE. IF THE STORM TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH...STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SCA COND ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST ON THE OCEAN RIGHT THRU THU. ELSEWHERE...PERIODS OF SCA LVL WINDS POSSIBLE WITH NW FLOW DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY WED AND THU. && .HYDROLOGY... WIDESPREAD PCPN IS POSSIBLE LATE SUN NGT THRU MON...AND AGAIN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PCPN THAT FALLS LIKELY TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW ATTM. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330- 335-338-340-345. GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-353. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC/NV NEAR TERM...NV SHORT TERM...NV LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...JC MARINE...JMC/NV HYDROLOGY...JMC/NV

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