Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 300804 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 404 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL GRADUALLY WORK WEST TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND..WITH MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... BKN PATCHES OF ALTOCU INLAND...ALSO IN NYC AND PARTS OF LONG ISLAND...SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING. MODELS IN CLOSER AGREEMENT ON LIMITED MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES...SO FCST IS DRY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS SHOULD HOWEVER BE REACHED...SO EXPECT SCT CU THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY BKN AT TIMES NW OF NYC. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S...CLOSE TO A GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE BLEND AND CONSISTENT WITH MIXING UP TO 825 MB. DEEPER MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD SLOWLY EDGE INTO AREAS FROM NYC NORTH/WEST TONIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THERE AND PTCLDY SKIES TO THE EAST. FORCING FOR SHOWERS WILL BE LACKING AS SHORTWAVES PIVOTING AROUND A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN ONTARIO/QUEBEC WILL BE WEAK AND PASSING JUST TO THE NW. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/... A BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL COME ON THU AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE PIVOTS AROUND THE CLOSED LOW...AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TSTM PER NAM FCST SOUNDINGS. HAVE SCT COVERAGE ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA DESPITE ONSHORE FLOW...AS MARINE LAYER LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO INHIBIT CONVECTION ONLY ACROSS FAR ERN SECTIONS OF LONG ISLAND AND SE CT. HIGHS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE 00Z MODEL SUITE SUGGESTS THE PREVIOUS FCST WAS ON TRACK...SO ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE. INSTABILITY ACROSS MAINLY THE INTERIOR FRI WILL SET THE STAGE FOR PERHAPS A FEW SHRA AND TSTMS. LEFT THE LOW CHC POPS AT 30. MARITIME LAYER OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE CWA...SO TSTM CHCS APPEAR TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BY EVE...EVEN FAR INLAND. SUBTROPICAL TAP APPEARS LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE GFS INDICATES THE BEST FORCING AND RESULTANT RAIN CHCS ON SUNDAY... WITH THE ECMWF ON SAT. MAINTAINED AROUND 40 POP FOR THE WEEKEND... ALTHOUGH IT DOES NOT APPEAR IT WILL RAIN ALL WEEKEND ATTM. WITH PW INCREASING TO AROUND 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL...DID INCREASE RAINFALL INTENSITY TO MDT. COLD FROPA EXPECTED ON TUE PER THE 00Z DATA...BUT THE ASSOCIATED PRE-FRONTAL TROF SHOULD USHER THE BEST MOISTURE OFFSHORE BEFORE... POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS MON. FOR THIS REASON THE SCHC POPS ON MON ARE APPROPRIATE...WITH A FEW ISOLD SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE DRIER AIR MASS TUE AFTN. TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD ARE CLOSE TO THE GRAPHICAL MOS...WITH THE PREV 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SPREAD THRU THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT...LASTING INTO WEDS MORNING. SEA BREEZES THEN DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND PASS THROUGH SOME TERMINALS. WINDS GENERALLY SW TO S 10KT OR LESS. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .WED NIGHT...VFR. .THU-FRI...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS. .SAT-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS. && .MARINE... WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS FRI THRU THE WEEKEND. && .HYDROLOGY... A HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND TRACK OF UPR LVL FEATURES. SOME AREAS OF MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE THESE OCCUR. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS/MARINE...GOODMAN/JMC NEAR TERM/SHORT TERM...GOODMAN LONG TERM/HYDROLOGY...JMC AVIATION...LN

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