Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 220548 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1248 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS WHILE MOVING NORTH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH DRY SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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AREA OF LIGHT RAIN OVER LONG ISLAND BEGINNING TO MOVE TO THE NORTH...AND EVEN SPREADING TO THE WEST A BIT. ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT...AND WITH PRECIP MOVING INTO AREA OF COLDER AIR...RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW. GOING THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH TEMPS SLOWLY FALLING...ANY PRECIP MAY FREEZE ON THE ROAD SURFACES. OTHERWISE...IF MOISTURE IS DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW...VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL BE THE RESULT. HOWEVER...COMPLICATING THINGS IS THAT TEMPS THROUGH 850 HPA OR SO WARM SLIGHTLY. SO EVEN IF MOISTURE IS DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW PRODUCING PROCESSES...ANY PRECIP MAY CHANGE OVER THE RAIN ANYWAY. CLOUDS LIKELY LINGER EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THESE LOW CLOUDS COULD BREAK UP SOMEWHAT AS RIDGE BUILDS. TEMPS ARE A BLEND OF LATEST MOS AND FORECAST DATABASE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... UPPER RIDGE BUILDS AHEAD OF DIGGING MID WEST TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A WARM FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC...DRIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA. WEAK LOW LEVEL LIFT WILL RESULT IN CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. DO NOT EXPECT REAL HIGH COVERAGE AT THIS TIME. TEMPS WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 30S MONDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST. THESE TEMPS LIKELY REMAIN STEADY MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO EAST FLOW AND CLOUDY SKIES. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... WEAK LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING LOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ALL GUIDANCE DOES NOT MAINTAIN A CLOSED CIRCULATION AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. OTHERWISE THERE IS GENERALLY CONSISTENCY WITH THE MIDWESTERN LOW DEEPENING AND TRACKING NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS THE FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED. ONLY CHANGE HAS BEEN A SLIGHTLY SLOWER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENTLY FORECAST TO COME THROUGH JUST AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...AND CLEAR THE EASTERN ZONES JUST AFTER 12Z CHRISTMAS DAY. ALSO...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF PROFILES ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR THE EVENT. WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND STRONG LIFT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED. ALSO THERE WILL BE A DEEP INFLUX OF GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. UP TO 2 INCHES WILL LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION. IN THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY WINDS AND GUSTS INCREASE BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY. THEN A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY...HOWEVER THE PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO NOW BE DRY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES LATER SATURDAY AND TRACKS NORTH SUNDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. THE STORM WILL BE INLAND AND THE AREA WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA...AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS NEAR THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. THE FEW POCKETS OF VFR THAT EXIST THIS MORNING SHOULD GIVEWAY TO MVFR BY 8Z...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH DAY...WITH POCKETS OF IFR AT TIMES. LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/ EXACT LOCATION OF ANY IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY. BETTER CHANCE OF IFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE/SNOW WILL REMAIN EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH...MOSTLY EAST OF THE NYC TERMINALS. ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. A WEAK N-NNE FLOW AT LESS THAN 10 KT GRADUALLY VEERS AROUND TO NE-E BY THIS AFTERNOON. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .LAE TONIGHT...IFR LIKELY. .TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...IFR LIKELY. E WINDS G15-20 KT PROBABLE... BECOMING SE. .WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH IMPACT EVENT BECOMING LIKELY. IFR WITH +RA. S/SE WINDS 15-20G20-25KT POSSIBLE. LLWS POSSIBLE EASTERN AND MAYBE SOUTHERN TERMINALS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW LATE AT NIGHT. .THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY AFTERNOON. -SHRA IN THE MORNING. W WINDS 15-20G25-35KT LIKELY. .FRIDAY...VFR. W-NW WINDS G20KT POSSIBLE.
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&& .MARINE...
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LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING...SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WELL NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND DRIFTS NORTHWARD TOWARD THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. EAST WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. SEAS REMAIN 4 FT OR LESS OVER THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW INTO TUESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS TO BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. WIND AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WIND AND GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ACROSS ALL THE WATERS BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE WIND GUSTS ON THE OCEAN INCREASE TO GALE FORCE. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PASSES THROUGH THE WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY WIND SHIFTS TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND BECOMES VERY GUSTY IN THE COLDER AIR. GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BECOME LIKELY ACROSS ALL THE WATERS DURING THURSDAY AND THEN SUBSIDE TO BELOW GALE FORCE THURSDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT DURING FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. A WEAK COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH DRY SATURDAY...AND WIND AND SEA ARE LIKELY TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVEL.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY JUST LIGHT AMOUNTS. RAINFALL FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING COULD TOTAL 1 1/2 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MINOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. DRY WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MET/PW NEAR TERM...JP SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...MET AVIATION...MALOIT/24 MARINE...MET/PW HYDROLOGY...MET/PW

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