Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 020054 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 854 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS WILL MOVE ACROSS EARLY THIS WEEK. A MORE COMPLEX LOW WILL WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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ATMOSPHERE ABOVE 10 KFT CONTINUES TO DRY OUT THIS EVENING WITH DEEPEST SATURATION OCCURRING IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER OHIO VALLEY SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD THIS EVENING WITH A COOL...MOIST NE FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND. LATEST RADAR TRENDS ALSO SHOW STEADIEST RAIN PUSHING TO THE EAST WITH MOST OBSERVATIONS OF JUST LIGHT RAIN AND A FEW SPOTS WITH SOME DRIZZLE. EXPECTING THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. POPS DECREASE TO JUST CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA AROUND 9PM. LOW CLOUDS AND SOME PATCHY FOG LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WITH LOW LEVELS SATURATED. WARM FRONT PUSHES CLOSER TO THE REGION TOWARDS DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND STEADY RAIN SHOULD BECOME LIKELY OVER NW ORANGE COUNTY AT THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE 40S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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AS LOW PRES OVER WESTERN NY APPROACHES...A SECONDARY LOW LOOKS TO FORM OFF THE DELMARVA EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND PASS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. MEANWHILE...THE PARENT LOW WILL PASS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWA. THINK BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE OVER NW ZONES MONDAY MORNING...AND WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS THERE. OTHERWISE...NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP FOR THE REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS...BUT BASED ON LATEST MODEL RUNS...THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL EITHER BE TO THE NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE REGION. ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT. FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING...CONDS WILL REMAIN NEARLY SATURATED...AND CAN EXPECT SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE/PATCHY FOG FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT LOW LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY. UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDS ON TAP WITH HIGHS GENERALLY ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN THEME THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OF A DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL THEN TRACK TO THE SE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AND THEN MEANDER HERE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ON THIS SCENARIO AND THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN. HOWEVER...THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/LOCATIONS/INTENSITY OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE CUTOFF WHICH COULD PRODUCE SHOWERS AT ANY TIME. BEFORE THE CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS...A STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND ON TUESDAY ACTS A FOCUS FOR WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP AND RIDE ALONG IT. THE REGION WILL ALSO LIE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 115-125 KT UPPER LEVEL JET TUESDAY MORNING. THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN EXISTS TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE REGION EXCEPT THE NORTHERN TIER FURTHEST AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY/WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY AND TIMING OF EACH WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SO DID NOT WANT TO RAISE POPS ANY FURTHER THAN LIKELY. THE UPPER JET CORE SHIFTS TO THE NE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH DECREASES LIFT AND OVERALL MOISTURE ALLOWING POPS TO TAPER DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE TUESDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE. HAVE GENERALLY KEPT CHANCE POPS FROM WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PREDICTABILITY WITH ANY SMALLER SCALE FEATURE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF IS RATHER LOW. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY CONDITIONS AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS...BUT TIMING THEM AT THIS JUNCTURE IS RATHER DIFFICULT AND SHOWS HIGH VARIABILITY RUN TO RUN IN THE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. ANY PIECE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE CUTOFF AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE COULD BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS. IT LOOKS LIKE THE CUTOFF LOW WILL DRIFT OFF THE COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH THE LATEST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SUITE...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE SINCE THIS IS STILL SEVEN DAYS OUT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
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&& .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS GENERALLY ENE 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH MON MORNING...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDS. CONDS MAY IMPROVE A LITTLE AFTER DAYBREAK MON BUT STILL REMAIN IFR. LOW CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CONDS AND ALSO WINDS FOR MOST TERMINALS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON MON AS ONE LOW DEPARTS AND ANOTHER APPROACHES TOWARD THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MON THROUGH FRI... .MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...IFR/LIFR CONDS SHOULD REDEVELOP AT NIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK LOW APPROACHES. EXACT TIMING OF LOWER CONDS UNCERTAIN. MVFR CONDS MAY RETURN TUE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE LOWERING AGAIN TO IFR/LIFR. .WED-FRI...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS AT TIMES WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS/FOG/ LOW CLOUDS.
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&& .MARINE... FORECAST ON COASTAL WATERS REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING. SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FT ON THE OCEAN...AND A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...AND THEN SEAS SUBSIDE TO SUB-SCA CRITERIA. WITH A WEAK GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE WATERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES INTO THE END OF THE WEAK WITH BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. SEAS MAY PUSH OVER 5 FT LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN ON FRIDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... AN ADDITIONAL 1/4-1/2 INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE ACROSS FAR NW ZONES. 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NO HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS EXPECTED. PERIODS OF RAINFALL CONTINUE POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME FROM WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TIMING...LOCATION...AND AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$

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