Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 240844 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 444 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER IS FORECAST TO RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. SUNNY AND WINDY...BUT SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THE MAX WIND SPEED IN MIXED LAYER THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY REMAINS BELOW 40KT. PERHAPS A FEW SPOTS COULD REACH CRITERIA WITH THE BETTER CHANCES OF THIS OCCURRING DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE OF A WIDESPREAD EVENT TO GO WITH AN ADVISORY AT ANY PARTICULAR AREA. 850MB TEMPS DURING MAX HEATING ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR 0C. CONSIDERING FULL SUN AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING FROM STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS...EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S FOR MOST SPOTS...SO THEREFORE WENT WITH THE WARMER MAV MOS GUIDANCE. VERY DRY AIR WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN FROM ALOFT...SO SIDED WITH THE LOWER NAM GUIDANCE FOR SURFACE DEWPOINTS. THE COMBINED WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL HAVE FIRE WEATHER IMPLICATIONS. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND REACHES US LATE AT NIGHT. WINDS THEREFORE SUBSIDE THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLEAR MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES. THE GROWING SEASON WILL BE STARTING TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER ZONES...AND TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE BELOW FREEZING FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THIS AREA. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING HOW WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST LATE AT NIGHT... PREVENTING OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL GO WITH A FREEZE WATCH FOR THESE ZONES FOR NOW...INCLUDING ROCKLAND AND NORTHERN WESTCHESTER COUNTIES...AND HAVE THE DAY SHIFT GET A LOOK AT THE 12Z MODEL SUITE TO FINE TUNE THE HEADLINES. CLOUDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY LOWER AND THICKEN DURING FRIDAY...BUT MORE NOTICEABLY IN THE AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND DEPTH FOR ANY SHOWERS HOLDS OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SO WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING THROUGH THE AREA...SUBSIDENCE WILL LIMIT THE MIXING DEPTH...AND COASTAL SPOTS WILL LIKELY BE COOLED WITH A SEA BREEZE. STILL...HIGH TEMPS AT OR ABOVE TODAY`S FOR SPOTS AWAY FROM THE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...AS WELL AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA MAY SET OFF SOME ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING A RATHER COOL AND UNSETTLED PERIOD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...PASSING JUST TO OUR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY LOOK TO BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL. SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...THEN TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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VFR. A GUSTY NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFT WITH DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKING AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 20 TO 35 KT BEFORE DAYBREAK WILL RAMP BACK UP AFTER 12Z WITH SIMILAR GUSTS TO WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED ON WED...UP TO ABOUT 40 KT. WINDS SHOULD BE JUST RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC. GUSTS WILL BE LOST DURING THE EVENING HOURS THU. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .LATE THU NIGHT AND FRI...VFR. .FRI NIGHT-SAT...VFR. CHC -SHRA AND MVFR. .SUN...VFR. NW G20-25KT. .MON...VFR.
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&& .MARINE... GALE WARNING REMAINS UP FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF TONIGHT FOR ALL WATERS...THEN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ENTERS THE REGION. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH WINDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH LATE IN THE DAY...BUT STILL UNDER 15 KT. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. THEN...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY RETURN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. && .FIRE WEATHER... MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE TEENS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE...LITTLE RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND DRY FORECAST 1 AND 10 HOUR FUELS...WILL EXPAND THE RED FLAG WARNING TO INCLUDE ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. && .HYDROLOGY... THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ005>012. FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR CTZ005>008. NY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179. FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NYZ067>070. NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002>004-006-103>108. FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NJZ002. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-335-338- 340-345-350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/JC NEAR TERM...JC SHORT TERM...JC LONG TERM...BC AVIATION...DW MARINE...BC/JC FIRE WEATHER... HYDROLOGY...BC/JC

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