Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 191756 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 156 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN OFFSHORE ON MONDAY...WHILE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY...AND THEN WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS IT DRIFTS UP THE COAST.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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FOR THE MOST PART...SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE TRI- STATE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A BAND OF CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN LI. THESE WILL DEPART SHORTLY. RIDGING BUILDS IN BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY NW WINDS UP TO 30 MPH WILL CONTINUE AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. HIGHS WILL RUN ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL UNDER A FRESH CANADIAN AIRMASS...GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 50S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... UPPER FLOW FLATTENS TONIGHT INTO MON...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. A WINDOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING LIKELY TONIGHT. THE UNCERTAINTY IS JUST HOW LONG A WINDOW. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE LATE TONIGHT BUT THIS IS ALSO WHEN CIRRUS SHOULD BEGIN TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF APPROACHING GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE. WILL BLEND BETWEEN MAV/MET GUIDANCE AS THE TIMING OF THESE TWO FACTORS ARE DIFFICULT TO DISCERN. THIS POINTS TOWARDS TEMPS ACROSS INTERIOR VALLEYS AND PINE BARRENS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES...WITH MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA OUTSIDE THE URBAN CENTERS. NYC METRO LIKELY HOLDS IN THE 40S. BASED ON THESE TEMPS...FREEZE CONDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...NE NJ...SOUTHERN CT AND PINE BARRENS OF LI. FROST CONDITIONS FOR COASTAL CT...REST OF NE NJ AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AWAY FROM COAST AND NYC METRO...AND EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY LI. FREEZE WARNINGS/FROST ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED TO ADDRESS HAZARD. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SE OF THE REGION. DESPITE RETURN FLOW AND WAA...LIMITED MIXING AND INCREASING HIGH/MID CLOUD COVER WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPS...GENERALLY MID 50S TO UPPER 50S. STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY...OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA THIS MORNING...DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND THEN DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW JUST SW OF THE REGION BY TUES NIGHT. THIS OCCURRING IN RESPONSE TO WAVE PACKET ENERGY ENTERING WEST COAST THIS MORNING AS DEPICTED BY SUNYSB WAVE PACKET DIAGNOSTICS. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CLOSED LOW DRIFTING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MIDWEEK AND THEN GRADUALLY UP THE NE COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. STILL SOME MINOR PLACEMENT/INTENSITY DIFFERENCES BASED ON STRENGTH OF DIGGING SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND MORE SO STRENGTH OF RIDGING TO THE N/NW OF THE CUTOFF. SUNYSB GEFS/NAEFS ENSEMBLE SENSITIVITY DEPICT MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD AS N/S POSITIONAL DUE TO ABOVE. THEREAFTER...MODEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES IN HOW QUICKLY THIS ENERGY OPENS INTO NORTHERN STREAM FLOW TO END THE WEEK. THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER ENERGY WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON LOCATION/INTENSITY SPECIFICS OF RESULTANT DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE/S AND ULTIMATE DEGREE OF WIND...RAIN AND COASTAL IMPACTS ON THE REGION. LATEST RUNS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WIND AND COASTAL IMPACTS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND COAST...BUT STILL INHERENT UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT IN TIME WITH THESE TYPE OF SYSTEMS. OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS MODERATE TO HIGH IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BREEZY...COOL...AND WET WEATHER FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK. AS SUCH WILL TREND POPS INTO LIKELY RANGE FOR MIDWEEK...THEN TAPERING TO CHANCE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. FAIRLY GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS IN THIS SYSTEM FINALLY LIFTING NE OF THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR DRYING CONDS. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NW WINDS...JUST AT OR TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC...WILL AVERAGE 15-20 KT WITH 25-30 KT GUSTS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT WITH 15-20 KT GUSTS BY 22Z...AND THEN WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10 KT OR LESS BETWEEN 00-02Z MONDAY. WINDS GRADUALLY BACK TO THE W-SW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...AND THEN WINDS BACK TO THE S BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. VFR. OCNL BKN CIGS 040-050 THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. SKC CONDS BY 02Z. BKN CIGS AT 15 KFT WILL DEVELOP BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .MONDAY AFTERNOON...VFR. S-SW WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. .MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN RAIN. BEST CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. .FRIDAY...IMPROVING CONDS. NW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS. && .MARINE... SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS...FOR WIND GUSTS 25-30 KT THROUGH THE DAY...AS WELL AS CONTINUING LARGE LONG PERIOD SE SWELLS ON THE OCEAN FROM DISTANT HURRICANE GONZALO RACING NE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. SCA WAS EXTENDED INTO THIS EVENING FOR THE EASTERN SOUND/BAYS WHERE GUST POTENTIAL LOOKS TO LAST A LITTLE LONGER...AND REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT AS SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE. SCA CONDS COULD RETURN ESPECIALLY TO THE OCEAN WATERS WED NIGHT INTO FRI AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE WATERS ON TUE...THEN DEEPENS AND MOVES SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. && .HYDROLOGY... BASED ON MODEL TRENDS...ALTHOUGH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER IS LIKELY MID TO LATE WEEK...THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL CURRENTLY APPEARS LOW. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ009>012. FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ005>008. NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ069-070-079>081. FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ067-068. NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ004-103-105-107. FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ002. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ335- 338-345. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-340. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ355. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NV/DW NEAR TERM...NV/DW SHORT TERM...NV LONG TERM...NV AVIATION...MPS MARINE...GOODMAN HYDROLOGY...NV

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