Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 280130 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 930 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR THE MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONT MAY IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... THREAT FOR CONVECTION IS WINDING DOWN...AND ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF NE NJ WILL TAPER OFF OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. WILL ALSO CANCEL ANY FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES. HEIGHTS RISE SLOWLY TONIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUILDS EAST. WEAK WARM ADVECTION SETS UP BEHIND THE TROUGH AND STRENGTHENS LATE TONIGHT...TOWARD 12Z TUESDAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS SLOWLY EAST TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN REMAINS WITH ONE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ANOTHER MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA AND OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIME. HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL SLOWLY BUILD WITH A SURFACE HIGH ALSO BUILDING IN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES ON TUESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HOT TEMPS THE FOCUS FOR WED AND THU. UPR LOW TRACKING SEWD FROM QUEBEC INTO THE MARITIMES DURING THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SUPPRESSING HEIGHTS A BIT. THE GFS HAS LATCHED ON WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER FCST. THE ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW MUCH OF AN INFLUENCE. AS A RESULT...MADE NO CHANGES ATTM TO TEMPS WED AND THU. HX AT LEAST 95 IN THE CITY BOTH DAYS AND COULD APPROACH 100 NJ ZONES AND SWRN NY ZONES. THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE CDFNT GETS HERE THU NGT AND ENDS FRI PER THE GFS AND ECMWF. SAW NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THIS SOLN. FAIR WX RETURNS LATE FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS A BROAD AREA OF HIPRES SETTLES IN AGAIN. MOST OF THE SHRTWV ENERGY REMAINS ALONG THE CANADIAN/US BORDER DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR TEMPS WHICH WAS CLOSE TO THE ONGOING FCST. THE NEXT WEAK FRONTAL SYS AND UPR TROF PROGGED FOR SUN NGT AND MON. ONLY SCHC POPS FOR THIS AS AGAIN MOST OF THE FORCING COULD BE N OF THE CWA. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AT A FEW TERMINALS OUTSIDE NYC METRO. VFR TUESDAY. WINDS LIGHTEN FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT. SOUTH SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON TUESDAY. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE IF THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH THIS EVENING FROM THE NORTHWEST. TIMING OF TUESDAY SEA BREEZE MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE IF THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH THIS EVENING FROM THE NORTHWEST. TIMING OF TUESDAY SEA BREEZE MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO. WIND DIRECTION FORECAST UNCERTAIN IN THE MORNING...BUT SPEEDS REMAIN QUITE LIGHT. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE IF THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH THIS EVENING FROM THE NORTHWEST. TIMING OF TUESDAY SEA BREEZE MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE IF THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH THIS EVENING FROM THE NORTHWEST. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE IF THUNDERSTORMS DRIFT TOWARD THE AIRPORT THROUGH 2 OR 3Z. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. 5-6SM HAZE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE. SW WINDS WITH AFTERNOON SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT AT COASTAL TERMINALS. TSRA POSSIBLE THU AFTN/EVE. .FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. A WEAK TROUGH CROSSES THE WATERS TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY BLW SCA LVLS WED-SAT. EXCEPTION COULD BE THE WRN OCEAN INVOF THE HARBOR ENTRANCE WITH AN ENHANCED SLY FLOW LATE WED AND WED NGT. && .HYDROLOGY... SLOW MOVING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS..MAINLY ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...THIS EVENING MAY PRODUCE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT-MON. && .CLIMATE... RECORD HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY JULY 29 2015... LOCATION..........RECORD HIGH/YEAR.........FORECAST HIGH NEWARK....................100/1949.................97 BRIDGEPORT.................96/2002.................91 CENTRAL PARK...............99/1949.................95 LA GUARDIA.................97/1949.................97 J F KENNEDY................99/2002.................92 ISLIP......................96/2002.................93 && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC/MET NEAR TERM...MPS SHORT TERM...MET LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...PW MARINE...JMC/MET HYDROLOGY...JMC/MET CLIMATE...

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