Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 251926 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 326 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A broad area of high pressure will remain over the area through Tuesday. A cold front moves through the region Wednesday night, followed by brief high pressure building in from the west through late week. Another surface low and attendant cold front pass through Friday night, followed by strong Canadian high pressure settling in across the area through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... A 1019 high was centered from VT to the n atlc this aftn. This sfc ridge will remain in place n of the fcst area tngt. At the same time, stratus and fog hugging the s fork will expand wwd on the llvl ely component flow tngt. There was dense fog on Cape Cod last ngt, and with fog favored at the leading edge of a stratus shield, patchy dense fog was included in the fcst for most of the area tngt. Otherwise, dry weather and clear skies as aftn cu will dissipate this eve. A blend of guidance, which was in good agreement, was used for temps. A high risk for rips and a high surf advy remain in effect thru Tue ngt. Nassau and NYC remain out of the high surf advy attm with waves progged to avg blw 7 ft. This would change, particularly for Nassau county, if the swell comes in any higher than what is currently modeled. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Maria will slowly track nwd and the sfc high will remain in place thru the period. This will result in a slight increase in the wind. Morning fog and stratus is expected to burn off, at least across the wrn 2/3 of the cwa. Time heights show moisture is shallow, but the fog and stratus are still out there today, so it is entirely possible it lasts thru most if not all of the day for parts of ern CT and LI. High clouds will also increase from the sw, so sunshine where there is not the low stuff will be somewhat filtered. With the marine influence, the raw model data was blended in for high temps yielding numbers several degrees blw guidance. For the overnight, it is still uncertain how much fog will develop with winds likely staying abv 5 kt or so. Some of the modeling is producing measurable pcpn across portions of the area. With a lack of lift across the area, the fcst included patchy fog and dz for the majority of the area, with more of a mist than thick fog expected attm. Temps were a blend of the guidance and raw model data. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... With persistent onshore flow, Wednesday morning may initially have fog and/or stratus and perhaps some light drizzle closer to the coast as moisture remains beneath the low-level inversion. Conditions will improve through the day with a final stretch of well above normal temperatures before the cold front moves through from northwest to southeast in the evening to overnight. Overall the front is expected to be moisture starved, with very little, if any precipitation with its passage. Although temperatures on Thursday will be a few degrees above normal in gusty northwest flow, dew points will gradually lower through the day as high pressure builds in, leading to more comfortable conditions. Thereafter, temperatures will fall to near or slightly below seasonal values as a strong Canadian high builds in from the northwest. Conditions will mainly be dry, with the exception of Friday night as a weak low passes through the area. && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure remains across the region through the TAF period. VFR conditions late this afternoon, but watching stratus/fog bank off the coast. Stratus and fog will likely make a push across the terminals from the east this evening and overnight. Stratus and fog is expected to be more widespread, however timing is uncertain and could be an hour or two off from current forecast. These sub VFR conditions linger into Tuesday morning, then improve as the afternoon hours approach. Light E/SE winds 5-10 kt through the remainder of the afternoon become light/variable again tonight into early Tuesday morning. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: VFR into the early evening, then timing of sub VFR ceilings and visibilities may be off by an hour or two. KLGA TAF Comments: Winds are expected to turn toward the SE. Timing of sub VFR ceilings and visibilities may be off by an hour or two this evening. KEWR TAF Comments: VFR into the early evening, then timing of sub VFR ceilings and visibilities may be off by an hour or two. KTEB TAF Comments: VFR into the early evening, then timing of sub VFR ceilings and visibilities may be off by an hour or two. KHPN TAF Comments: VFR into the early evening, then timing of sub VFR ceilings and visibilities may be off by an hour or two. KISP TAF Comments: VFR initially, then timing of sub VFR ceilings and visibilities may be off by an hour or two this evening and overnight. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .Tuesday afternoon...VFR, although patchy coastal stratus is possible. .Tuesday night-Wednesday...MVFR or lower conditions possible with patchy fog and/or stratus and a low chance of showers. .Wednesday night-Thursday...MVFR or lower possible with isolated to scattered shower activity. .Thursday night-Friday...VFR. .Saturday...Mainly VFR, except MVFR possible in any showers. && .MARINE... Swell associated with Maria will continue to increase thru Tue. A sca for seas therefore remains in effect thru Tue ngt. Otherwise, winds will remain lgt thru the period. Lingering swell from T.C. Maria will likely allow seas to remain at SCA-levels through late week, before gradually subsiding this weekend as high pressure builds from the north. There will be a chance for winds around 15 to 20 kt with gusts 25 to 30 kt on Thursday following a cold frontal passage, but otherwise winds will remain below SCA-levels. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts expected the next 7 days. && .CLIMATE... The following are the record high temperatures for Monday September 25, 2017 along with the forecast high temperatures: Record High Temperature Forecast High Temperature ----------------------------- ------------------------- Central Park........90 (1970) 88 LaGuardia...........90 (2010) 87 Kennedy.............87 (2010) 81 Islip...............87 (2010) 82 Newark..............91 (1970) 90 Bridgeport..........85 (1970) 82 && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for NYZ075- 080-081-178-179. High Surf Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for NYZ080-081. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC/MD NEAR TERM...JMC SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...MD AVIATION...PW MARINE...JMC/MD HYDROLOGY...JMC/MD CLIMATE...

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