Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 191153 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 753 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST TODAY...AND THEN SETTLES OVER THE GULF OF MAINE FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE TRI-STATE FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS TOWARDS...THEN OVER THE REGION INTO FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... FORECAST ON TRACK. WILL ADJUST HOURLY GRIDS BASED ON LATEST SFC OBS AND SAT IMG. WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD EAST. WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND RIDGING AT THE SFC...WILL EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH WITH 20-25 MPH GUSTS. SKIES CLEAR OUT LATER THIS MORNING...GIVING TO ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. A BLEND OF MET/MAV MOS GUIDANCE WAS USED. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... QUIET CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO EASTERN CANADA ON SUNDAY...AND THEN SETTLES OVER THE GULF OF MAINE MONDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...ALLOWING LOWS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 ACROSS OUTLYING AREAS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CT...AS WELL AS THE PINE BARRENS OF LONG ISLAND. ELSEWHERE...LOWS DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S IN/AROUND NYC...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE. AS THE HIGH TRACKS EAST...WINDS SHIFT TO A COOLER EASTERLY FLOW ON SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS ALMOST 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY IN MOST SPOTS. HIGHS TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S NEAR THE COAST...AND IN THE LOW 60S INLAND. SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPS TEMPS IN THE 50S FOR COASTAL AREAS ON MONDAY...BUT THE INTERIOR WILL BE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S. CLOUDS INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LOWS DROP INTO THE 40S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO PHASING BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS. THIS DEVELOPING TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TUESDAY...TO THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN SLOWLY EXITS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY...AS IT BEGINS TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT. THERE APPEARS TO BE A SOLID CONSENSUS AMONGST THE MODELS THAT TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE DRY...THEN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM NW TO SE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SHOWERS THEN WILL TAPER OF FROM NW TO SE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN CONSENSUS...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY THROUGHOUT TUESDAY NIGHT. DO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE (CHANCE FAR NE ZONES) OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO CORE OF THE MID-UPPER TROUGH PASSING OVER THE AREA. DEEP LAYERED RIDGING THEN BUILDS IN FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT THEN SLIDES TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY. FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST IN THIS TIME FRAME DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 00Z ECMWF HAS SPED UP A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH COMPARED TO THE 12Z ECMWF AND REMAINDER OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE...AND WOULD NO BRING SOME RAIN IN ON FRIDAY...WHILE ALL THE LATTER GUIDANCE HAS FRIDAY DRY. IF THE TRENDS IN THE ECMWF CONTINUE...THEN POPS WOULD HAVE TO BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED USED A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...WITH THE POSSIBILITY THAT AREAS FROM NYC ON W COULD REACH OR JUST GO PAST THE 70 DEGREE MARK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY...RAISE TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS ON THURSDAY...THEN SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY. NOTE...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT IT COULD BE A BIT COOLER THAN FORECAST. FOR FRIDAY...IF THE 00Z ECMWF IS CORRECT...THEN HIGHS COULD BE AT LEAST 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A WEAKENING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA INTO THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH TONIGHT. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO VEER TO THE NW FROM THE SW THAN EXPECTED...SO HAVE DELAYED WINDS GETTING TO THE LEFT OF 300 TRUE/310 MAGNETIC UNTIL 12-14Z. WIND SHIFT HAS OCCURED AT KLGA...SO SHOULD OCCUR BY 13Z KJFK AND KEWR. APPEARS WINDS SHOULD GUST TO AROUND 15-20KT FROM LATE MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON. GUSTS ABATE BY EARLY EVENING AS WINDS VEER TO THE N THEN NNE-NE AND SPEEDS FALL BELOW 10 KT. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .SUNDAY-TUESDAY MORNING...VFR. .TUESDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY MORNING...SHRA LIKELY...WITH MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. NW-N WINDS G202-5KT POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. .WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE MVFR. NW-N WIND G 20-25KT POSSIBLE.
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&& .MARINE... WILL ALLOW SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS TO EXPIRE AS SEAS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA THIS WEEKEND. OCNL WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUND AND EASTERN OCEAN WATERS. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TUESDAY WITH A RELATIVELY RELAXED GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO SCA LEVELS ON ALL WATERS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... A DRY DAY TODAY WITH GUSTY N-NW FLOW WILL RESULT IN MIN RH VALUES BETWEEN 20-30 PERCENT ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH AT TIMES. THIS WILL ENHANCE FIRE SPREAD POTENTIAL. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS CONCERN. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY OF THIS APPEARS LOWER THAN IT DID YESTERDAY. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO SPECIFY EXACT AMOUNTS OR ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS - IF ANY. NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM NWS TAUNTON MA. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/MPS NEAR TERM...MPS SHORT TERM...MPS LONG TERM...MALOIT AVIATION...MALOIT MARINE...MALOIT/MPS FIRE WEATHER... HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/MPS

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