Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 202323 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 623 PM EST Sat Jan 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains south of the region through the weekend. A weak cold front will pass through the area tonight. A warm front, associated with low pressure moving into the upper midwest Monday, approaches Sunday night and moves through the area late Monday into Monday night. The low tracks across the Great Lakes region and through eastern Canada Monday night through Tuesday night, bringing as cold front across the region Tuesday. High pressure builds over the area Wednesday through Friday and moves offshore Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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Only minor changes to the temperatures and dew points for current conditions. Forecast remains on target. A weak cold front, associated with low pressure system moving across SE Canada, will push across the region this evening. High pressure will remain south of the area. This front comes through dry, however temperatures do return to more seasonable levels. Lows tonight fall into the 20s and lower 30s. The NYC metro area may remain in the middle 30s all night.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... The cold front which will move across the region tonight, will provide a glancing shot of Canadian air for Sunday. High temperatures on Sunday will be a good 8-10 degrees cooler than today. Forecast high temperatures will be in the lower to middle 40s. 12Z NAM continues to show the potential for some stratus to develop under a strengthening subsidence inversion Sunday afternoon. There is a higher probability for this to occur across PA and points west. If stratus does develop this far east, temperatures may be a few degrees cooler than forecast. Clouds increase Sunday night along with the possibility of some light precipitation development Sunday Night into early Monday morning as a warm front moves towards the region. Will keep chances a slight chance for now, and most of the precipitation will be plain rain, however there is the potential for an icy mix across Lower Hudson Valley and Southern CT in this pattern. Any icy mix would result in a hazardous Monday Morning commute for these areas. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Rather strong continuity with model guidance remains with a frontal system that will be impacting the region late Sunday night through Tuesday night. As is typical of the ECMWF the low is a bit slower and not as deep as both the NAM and GFS, especially Monday night into Tuesday. A blend of the model guidance and current forecast will keep forecast close to continuity. There is uncertainty with the passage of a warm front Monday. Typical cold air damming is not in place Monday as high pressure will be moving across southern central Canada with more of a west to east configuration. In addition mid and upper flow is initially more zonal and progressive, then as the upper trough deepens and moves east flow becomes more southerly by late in the day. Without the cold air in place to the north, the warm front is expected to move through later Monday afternoon, especially along the coast, and inland early Monday night. Also, without the colder air in place the chances for freezing rain across the interior have diminished, with areas possible at this time across the northern zones. Otherwise rain is expected and with strong lift and a low level jet, along with influx of Gulf of Mexico moisture, periods of moderate to heavy rain will be Tuesday. A rumble of thunderstorm will also be possible. After the passage of the cold front and upper trough heights will be rising and surface Canadian high pressure will be building in with an extended period of colder and dry weather into next weekend.
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&& .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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High pressure remains centered to our south through the TAF period. Winds and gusts will continue to subside this evening. WNW winds under 10 kt at city terminals with light and variable winds elsewhere. Light NW winds will continue on Sunday before gradually backing to the W-SW late. VFR through much of the TAF period. Potential for MVFR ceilings increases Sunday evening. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .Sunday NIGHT...MVFR possible. .Monday...MVFR or IFR in chance of -RA. A light wintry mix possible across interior early Monday. .Tuesday...IFR or LIFR in rain. LLWS. S winds G25KT morning, WSW winds G30-35KT possible near the coast in the afternoon. .Wednesday...VFR. WNW G25-30KT. .Thursday...VFR. NW winds G20KT.
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&& .MARINE...
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Seas may still be at or above 5 ft across the outer waters east of the Moriches Inlet, as buoy 44097 remains around 7 ft. So will keep the SCA. Conditions fall below small craft levels on the eastern ocean waters by midnight. Then conditions remain below SCA through Sunday night. As a warm front moves into the forecast waters Monday and early Monday night winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels. Once the warm front moves through and winds shift to southerly, and increase as a cold front approaches, wind gusts will increase late Monday night through Tuesday. Gusts will likely reach SCA levels late Monday night into Tuesday across all the waters. With a low level inversion in place Tuesday higher winds aloft will be difficult to mix down to the water. However, there will be the potential for ocean gusts to be near gale force for several hours during the day Tuesday. Otherwise, with the increased southerly flow, ocean seas will be building to small craft levels Tuesday. There may be a brief period of sub small craft winds late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Then, once colder air filters into the waters behind a cold front small craft level wind gusts will be likely across all the waters late Tuesday night into Thursday morning. Ocean seas will be slowly subsiding into the northwest flow Thursday.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... A frontal system passing through late Sunday night through Tuesday has the potential to produce 1 to 1 1/2 inches of rain. No significant hydrologic issues are anticipated at this time. && .EQUIPMENT... NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO-35 (162.55 MHz) is off the air for an extended period of time. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ANZ350. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/19 NEAR TERM...BC/19 SHORT TERM...BC LONG TERM...19 AVIATION...JC MARINE...BC/19 HYDROLOGY...BC/19 EQUIPMENT...

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