Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 242358 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 758 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will prevail through the first half of this week. Meanwhile, Hurricane Maria is forecast to track north and pass east of the Carolinas on Wednesday before getting kicked out to the east by an approaching cold front. The front will move through Wednesday night into early Thursday. High pressure builds in for Thursday and Friday. A weak low pressure area moves through the region Saturday with high pressure returning for Sunday. Refer to the latest National Hurricane Center advisories for the official forecast on Maria. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Cooler and drier air continues to advance into the region and again updated temperatures, dew points and winds to better reflect trends. Clear conditions and light to calm winds will be favorable for stratus and fog development late tonight. Uncertain how extensive the fog will be, updated to mention 5 miles in fog. The fog should be shallow/patchy in nature in most spots as moisture will be confined to near the surface. The exception here will be out east where onshore flow will lead to somewhat great/deeper sfc based moisture, and low stratus from the outer circulation of the remnants of Jose may even sneak into eastern Long Island and SE CT overnight. A high rip current risk will continue at the ocean beaches through this evening due to increasing southerly swells from Maria. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Another sunny/warm day expected on Mon, though not quite as warm as today with onshore flow more prevalent. High temps will range from the upper 70s/lower 80s near the coast, to mid 80s most elsewhere, to the upper 80s well inland, still above MOS guidance. With another night of onshore flow, low stratus and fog should be more prevalent as well, mainly inland NW of NYC, and also across eastern CT/Long Island. Low temps should be near or slightly cooler than those expected tonight, in the upper 50s and 60s. Swells from distant Hurricane Maria will continue to produce a high rip current risk and high surf. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A strong upper ridge and surface high will be remaining across the region Tuesday as Hurricane Maria moves east of the Carolinas. The ridge slowly weakens Tuesday night into Wednesday as a shortwave digs into the upper midwest and Great Lakes region. The increasing westerly flow with the trough will steer Maria eastward from the Carolinas, and into the Atlantic, Wednesday night through the end of the week. There will be little moisture from the tropical cyclone and the cold front moving into the region and will have mainly slight chance to low chance probabilities. With a continuation of the easterly flow Tuesday into Wednesday, low clouds and fog, with drizzle, will be possible. Will include for Tuesday morning only at this time. Refer to the latest advisories from the National Hurricane Center for the official forecast on Maria. Anomalous warmth will remain across the region until the cold frontal passage, when temperatures return to more seasonal levels. The forecast becomes more uncertain after Thursday as a re- enforcing shortwave moves through the longwave trough and sends another cold front into the region Saturday. At that time temperatures may fall below seasonal normals. Due to long period swells from Maria, there is likely to be a high rip current risk through the week. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure remains across the region through the TAF period. VFR through this evening. Expect similar conditions as last night...although perhaps MVFR/IFR fog is a bit more widespread outside of NYC terminals. The stratus may also make it into KGON overnight as opposed to last night. VFR returns 12z to 14z Monday morning which will remain for all terminals during the day Monday. Light and vrb winds overnight through early Monday morning and then increase to 5-10 kt out of the E-SE into Monday afternoon. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .Monday night-Tuesday...MVFR or lower conditions possible with areas of fog and/or stratus and drizzle outside city terminals. .Tuesday night-Wednesday...MVFR or lower conditions possible with patchy fog and/or stratus and a low chance of showers. .Wednesday night-Thursday...MVFR or lower possible with isolated to scattered shower activity. .Thursday night-Friday...Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... Long period swells are producing 5-ft swells on the outer portion of the coastal waters E of Fire Island Inlet. Expect 5+ ft swells to reach all ocean waters by this evening. SCA for hazardous seas in effect thru Tue, and those seas should be with us into late week. Long period swells will continue to produce hazardous seas on the ocean waters at least through the forecast period, Friday. On the non ocean waters winds and seas will remain below advisory levels until Thursday. Gusty winds develop behind a cold frontal passage Wednesday night into early Thursday. Northwest small craft gusts will be possible late Thursday, Thursday night and into Friday across all the forecast waters at that time. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic problems anticipated. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for NYZ075-080- 081-178-179. High Surf Advisory from 6 AM to 9 PM EDT Monday for NYZ080-081. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ355. Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Goodman NEAR TERM...Goodman/MET SHORT TERM...Goodman LONG TERM...MET AVIATION... MARINE...Goodman/MET HYDROLOGY...MET is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.