Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 271806 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 106 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FRIDAY. THE HIGH MOVES EAST THIS WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... THE UPPER LVL SHORT WAVE EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL NY STATE SE ACROSS EASTERN PA AND CONTD MVG NE. THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN / SNOW SHOWERS WAS ADVECTING NE FROM THE NJ / NY BORDER SE ACROSS METRO NJ AS OF 1722Z. ALTHO THE HIGHEST POPS FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON WILL ADVECT EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...SOME REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE FURTHER WEST...WHICH IS WHY POPS WERE LEFT IN THIS NEAR TERM UPDATE. PRECIP TYPE WILL REMAIN MIXED UNTIL AROUND 19Z...WHEN RAIN IS FAVORED ALONG THE COAST FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTN. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THIS AFTERNOON/S HIGH TEMPS OF 35-40 DEGS...AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... TONIGHT...AN UPPER LVL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH AN ADDITIONAL SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS TEMPS FALL TO ARND OR BELOW 32 DEGS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. ALTHO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST...CAN NOT RULE OUT A DUSTING. FRIDAY...A COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRES SYS WILL FOLLOW THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LVL TROUGH BRINGING A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WILL BRING WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO THE TEENS AND 20S TO START THE DAY BEFORE RISING INTO THE 30S DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD DAY IS ON TAP WITH TEMPS AVERAGING 10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... ZONAL FLOW THIS WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO PACIFIC NW TROUGH THAT QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES PASSING TO THE NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER TROUGH THAT MOVES OUT OF THE PAC NW...ALSO TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN STATES. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TO START THE PERIOD MOVES EAST AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES. A WARM FRONT THEN LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED...SUBTLE TIMING AND POSITIONAL DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED IN THE GLOBAL MODELS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THIS FORECAST AS THE FRONT SETTLES AND STALLS JUST TO THE SOUTH. TEMPS GRADUALLY WARM UP THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEN TEMPS FALL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXITS EAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SURFACE TROUGH NEARBY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT. MOSTLY MVFR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE AS VFR COULD POTENTIALLY PREVAIL. SHOULD MVFR PREVAIL THIS EVENING...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT TEMPORARY VFR CONDS DO NOT OCCUR AS INDICATED IN FORECAST. BACK EDGE OF PCPN IS JUST ABOUT OVER THE CITY AS OF 18Z...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NE. EXPECTING PCPN TO BE COMING TO AN END FOR MOST SPOTS BY SUNSET. WINDS PRIMARILY BELOW 10 KT. DIRECTION SHOULD FAVOR NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC. HOVER...AT KEWR...IT PROBABLY FAVORS SOUTH OF 310. FOR FRIDAY...VFR AND NW WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRI THROUGH TUE... .FRI-SUN...VFR. .SUN NIGHT-MON...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. .TUE...VFR. && .MARINE... LOW PRESSURE NEAR NOVA SCOTIA WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST WATERS. ALTHO WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS...HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO THIS EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IS IN EFFECT ON THE OCEAN WATERS. ON FRIDAY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AS THE HIGH BUILDS CLOSER TO THE WATERS AND A FEW GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ONCE AGAIN. OCEAN SEAS OUT EAST COULD AGAIN REACH MARGINAL SCA LEVELS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT VIA A MODERATE SW FLOW. SCA LEVEL OCEAN SEAS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON MON AS SOUTHWEST WINDS GUST TO 20-25 KT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ355. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PW NEAR TERM...GC SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...PW AVIATION...JC MARINE...GC/MET HYDROLOGY...PW

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