Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KOKX 200545 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 145 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH MOVES EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON MONDAY AND REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
FORECAST UPDATE TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE RESULTING IN SE SURFACE FLOW. WITH THE FLOW GOING SE...STRATUS HAS EXPANDED INTO THE REGION. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST HOW EXPANSIVE THE STRATUS GETS. WITH WATER TEMPS NEAR 70...DO NOT BELIEVE FOG IS AN ISSUE. TEMPS WILL BE AFFECTED BY THE STRATUS AND ITS TIMING. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO MOS AND PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH THE CLOUDS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH POSITIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. MORNING CLOUDS GIVE WAY TO SUN BY AFTERNOON. UNCERTAINTY THOUGH IN THE MAX TEMPS WITH NAM MOS A GOOD 5 DEGREES HIGHER THAN GFS. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT OF SUN...HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH IS BASICALLY A COMPROMISE OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS. EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATUS SATURDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY SOME FOG ALONG THE COAST. WITH OCEAN TEMPS STILL NEAR 70 THOUGH...DID NOT INCLUDE THE FOG IN THE FORECAST. WHILE SOME DETERMINISTIC 12Z RUNS (NAM, CMC GEM) SUGGEST MEASURABLE PCPN...MEASURABLE QPF IN THE SREF IS ONLY AROUND 10 PERCENT. THUS USED SLIGHT POPS (LIGHT RAIN) FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...BUT DID GO WITH DRIZZLE (ALL AREAS) AS NWP PROFILES SUGGEST MOISTURE TO 700 HPA AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LIFTS. THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FORECASTS OF THE MASS FIELDS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THEY SHOW LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SE COAST THEN MOVING NE AS IT IS PICKED UP BY THE APPROACHING DIGGING AND AMPLIFYING UPPER LVL SHORT WAVE. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE AMPLIFICATION AND TIMING OF THIS SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL IMPACT THE POSITION AND INTENSITY OF THIS OFFSHORE LOW. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT WILL BE MOST VULNERABLE WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN. ADDITIONALLY...SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. IF ADEQUATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS...A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS WEST AND NORTH OF NYC LATE IN THE DAY. MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE DOMINATED BY A COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING AT LEAST 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NO RAIN IS FORECAST DURING THIS TIME AS DRYING CONTINUES. && .AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC TODAY...WHILE A WEAK COASTAL WAVE AND COLD FRONT APPROACH LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. 5 TO 10 KT SE WINDS THIS MORNING...INCREASING AND BECOMING GUSTY S/SE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND BACK E/NE TONIGHT. MVFR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LIKELY THIS MORNING. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS AND START/END TIMES WILL VARY FOR INDIVIDUAL SITES WITH OCCASIONAL FLUCTUATION BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR QUITE POSSIBLE AS WELL. CIGS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RISE TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND SCATTER...BUT OCCASIONAL BKN CIGS POSSIBLE ACROSS NYC METRO AND WESTERN TERMINALS. MVFR CONDS LIKELY TO RE-DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .LATE SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...MVFR...LOCALLY IFR CONDS AFTER 04Z WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWER. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE AFTERNOON. .SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS ENDING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. .MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...VFR.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE... SE WINDS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE ON THE OCEAN. WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY LATE SATURDAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL INCREASE CAUSING SEAS TO BUILD...APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OF 25 KT AND 5 FT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. SW WINDS 15-20 KT SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT FROM THE NW BY SUNRISE MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE TRANQUIL THROUGH TUE NIGHT. INCREASING EAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY WED AS SEAS GRADUALLY BUILD AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. && .HYDROLOGY... LESS THAN 1/4 INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS A LOW MOVES OFFSHORE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...JMC SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...GC AVIATION...NV MARINE...GC HYDROLOGY...GC

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.