-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KOKX 191112
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
712 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND REMAINS IN
CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING IN ITS WAKE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
FORECAST ON TRACK THIS MORNING. UPDATED TEMPS/DEW POINTS FOR CURRENT
TRENDS. MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT THIS MORNING BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE WEST CONTINUES TO BUILD IN.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. ALOFT...A TROUGH
AXIS AND SHORTWAVE WILL BE PASSING THROUGH...BUT WITH LITTLE
CONSEQUENCE. MOSTLY SUNNY WITH A DRY AIRMASS AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS
DROP INTO THE 40S THIS AFTERNOON. MIXING PROFILES SUPPORT HIGHS OF
MOSTLY 75-80.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES
TODAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OUTSIDE OF THE CITY...WITH LOWS 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN MOST OF THE SUBURBS.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY WITH A RETURN SW-S
FLOW SETTING UP. SEA BREEZES ARE LIKELY AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH THE FIRST FEW THOUSAND FEET IN ELEVATION. SURFACE DEW POINTS
SHOULD REMAIN AT COMFORTABLE LEVELS IN SPITE OF THIS AS DRIER AIR
FROM ALOFT MIXES DOWN. MIXING WON/T BE AS DEEP AS TODAY DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER
SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS OF GENERALLY 75-80 ONCE AGAIN.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS STILL BELOW
NORMAL...BUT NOT AS COOL AS TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN IN THE LONG
TERM TIME FRAME. ALOFT...A MEAN TROUGH WILL GIVE WAY TO SLIGHTLY
RISING HEIGHTS BY SATURDAY AND CONTINUING TO BUILD THROUGH THE WEEK.
GFS IS SLIGHTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE STRONG RIDGE MOVING IN
WHILE THE ECMWF TRACKS A SHORTWAVE THROUGH MONDAY AND THEN QUICKLY
RISES THE HEIGHTS.

AT THE SURFACE... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE LONG
TERM WITH A GENERAL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW. USED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR
TEMPS ON FRIDAY WITH A GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR NEAR NORMAL
VALUES. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEK AND USED
WPC GUIDANCE AS IT SEEMED REASONABLE WITH NO MAJOR TEMPERATURE
FLUXES. NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED.

MODELS TRYING TO HINT AT A FEW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY BUT HAVE CONTINUED
THE DRY FORECAST WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY OR LIFT. ON SATURDAY...A
COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE
WESTERN CWA BOUNDARY. WITH SOME INSTABILITY IN PLACE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING...THIS BOUNDARY COULD CREATE A FEW SHOWERS...MOSTLY IN FAR
NORTH AND WEST ZONES. HAVE LEFT CHANCE POPS FOR THAT AREA.

HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND POSSIBLY REMAINING
STATIONARY THROUGH MONDAY. ECMWF ALSO TRYING TO HINT AT A POTENTIAL
DECAYING MCS TRACKING SE ALONG THE FRONT...ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE
OF AN UPPER JET. WILL GENERALLY KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF NYC AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. THE NORTHERN AREAS WILL
HAVE THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY AND THEREFORE THE
GREATEST PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY...THEN SKC TONIGHT.

N-NNE AROUND 10 KT THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED
GUSTS 15-20 KT...EXCEPT AT KEWR WHICH LIKELY WILL HAVE MORE
FREQUENT GUSTS FROM MIDDAY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZE LIKELY
MID-LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING KBDR/KGON/KJFK/KISP/KLGA/KEWR.
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE - LOW
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING. COULD BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS. ISOLATED
GUSTS TO 15-20 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WINDS TO THE RIGHT OF 300 TRUE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE - LOW
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING. COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. ISOLATED
GUSTS TO 15-20 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WINDS TO THE RIGHT OF 300 TRUE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE - LOW
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING. COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. ISOLATED
GUSTS TO 15-20 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN MORE FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND 16-20Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN WINDS TO THE RIGHT OF 300 TRUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE - LOW
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING. COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. ISOLATED
GUSTS TO 15-20 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: VERY LOW CHANCE OF SEABREEZE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. ISOLATED GUSTS TO 15-20 KT
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE - LOW
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING. COULD BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS. ISOLATED
GUSTS TO 15-20 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY-SATURDAY MORNING...VFR.
.SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT MVFR OR LOWER
POSSIBLE IN ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY TO THE N/W OF CITY
TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A RELATIVELY TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT...THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 25
KT DURING THE EARLIER MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...A NORTHERLY FLOW AT
AROUND 15 KT WEAKENS THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL SEA BREEZE DIRECTIONS
DEVELOPING NEARSHORE LATE IN THE DAY. A LIGHT RETURN S TO SW FLOW
DEVELOPS FOR THURSDAY AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THEREFORE PREVAIL.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON SUN-TUE BUT NO
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/LN
NEAR TERM...LN/JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JC/LN
HYDROLOGY...JC/LN