-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KOKX 180236
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1036 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE AREA INTO TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSING SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FOR
THE MIDDLE TO THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR TWO REMAINS IN THE CWA.
THEY ARE QUICKLY DISSIPATING AS THEY REACH THE RAIN COOLED AIR
FROM THE PREVIOUS STORMS. HAVE THEREFORE TAKEN OUT ALL MENTION OF
POPS/THUNDER AFTER 03Z. ALSO UPDATED TRENDS FOR T/DP/WIND.
FORECAST IS OTHERWISE ON TRACK.

PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT. FOR LOW TEMPERATURES...A MAV/MET BLEND USED WHICH
YIELDS READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S EXCEPT HIGHER IN
NEW YORK CITY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THIS
COUPLED WITH A STALLED BOUNDARY IN THE AREA WILL PRODUCE MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.

THERE ARE STILL SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH THE LATEST MODEL OUTPUT
AND IT APPEARS MUCH OF THIS HINGES ON WHERE EXACTLY BOUNDARY
STALLS. FOR NEW YORK CITY AND INTERIOR SECTIONS...FORECAST MODELS
DO INDICATE BETWEEN 1000 TO 2000 J/KG OF CAPE. AT THE
COAST...BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG OF CAPE FORECAST. THE NAM IS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACROSS THE REGION. THE REGION WILL ALSO BE NEAR
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100+ KT 250 HPA JET...AND HAVE 40-50 KT
OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR. IF WE DO REALIZE THE HIGHER INSTABILITY...HAVE
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS. HAVE CAPPED POPS AT 50 PERCENT AT
THIS TIME.

FOR HIGHS TUESDAY...GENERALLY USED A MAV/MET BLEND WITH MORE
WEIGHT ON THE MAVS. THIS YIELDS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S...WARMEST IN NE NJ AND NYC.

STILL COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
THE MAIN COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ALSO
WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST AND TAKING THE BEST FORCING
WITH IT.

LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WITH A MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKY CONDITION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANY SHOWERS TAPER OFF EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THIS HIGH WILL THEN
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH MAINLY
DRY CONDS WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE LATE FRIDAY...AND THEN A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION BEHIND THE HIGH. THIS WILL BRING
WARMER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION WITH TEMPS WARMING
INTO THE 80S.

MCS ACTIVITY OVER THE MIDWEST BECOMES MORE LIKELY STARTING THIS
WEEKEND. THE REMNANTS OF THOSE SYSTEMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY TRACK
EAST...BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND SFC
INSTABILITY FOR ISO-SCT AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS...MAINLY OVER
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY WILL BE LATE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS ALONG A WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN IN
THE VICINITY TUESDAY.

GENERALLY VFR TONIGHT...EXCEPT PERHAPS MVFR VSBYS IN FOG OVERNIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL COME TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FOR TUESDAY...ANY LINGERING MVFR VSBYS IN FOG OR HAZE WILL IMPROVE
TO 6SM OR BETTER BY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED. NO
MENTION IN ANY INDIVIDUAL TAF SITE AT THIS TIME DUE TO EXPECTED
COVERAGE...BUT SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS LIGHTEN OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BECOME VARIABLE MOST IF NOT ALL
TERMINALS. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE EAST IN THE MORNING
TUESDAY...THEN SE DURING THE AFTERNOON. SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
10 KTS...OUTSIDE ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WED THROUGH SAT...
.TUE NIGHT...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN LINGERING SHOWERS/TSTMS AND FOG.
.WED-SAT...VFR.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
ONLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LEFT OVER THE LONG ISLAND SOUND AT 02Z.
THESE ARE DISSIPATING AND EXPECT ALL STORMS TO BE GONE BY 03Z-04Z.

OTHERWISE...WITH A RELATIVELY LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION EXPECT WINDS TO GENERALLY BE 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH
TUESDAY...OUTSIDE OF AFTERNOON SEABREEZES EACH DAY AND ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. WAVES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS ON THE OCEAN
WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WATERS STARTING ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVES
OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 1/3-2/3 AN INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE
QPF...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION
TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF 1.25-1.5
INCHES...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. THIS COULD CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS LOW FROM
THE MIDDLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/DS
NEAR TERM...MPS/DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...MPS/DS
HYDROLOGY...MPS/DS