Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 060607 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 107 AM EST Tue Dec 6 2016 .SYNOPSIS... As high pressure moves northeast across New England, low pressure moves off the mid atlantic coast through early Wednesday. A series of cold fronts will move southeast across the region through Friday followed by cold canadian high pressure Saturday through Sunday. Low pressure will approach Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... High pressure will move east across the area tonight as NW winds continue to decrease. SCT-BKN overrunning cirrus clouds will advect east across the region. Changes were made to the overnight temperatures including the overnight low temperatures. Where surface winds have decoupled from the upper flow, temperatures have plummeted, especially across the pine barrens of Long Island. A Special Weather Statement remains in effect where wet snow fell earlier today for the potential development of black ice, which could impact the Tuesday morning commute. Low temps should be in the 20s inland and central Suffolk County, and 30s NYC metro and along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... After a sunny start, high clouds will increase in the late morning and afternoon as the upper ridge axis slides across. As a closed low over Eastern TX opens up into a mid level trough and moves into the ridge, the associated sfc low pressure in the OH/TN valleys should start to redevelop late in the afternoon along the NC coast, and could bring a chance of rain to NYC metro and the Lower Hudson Valley late in the afternoon. High temps will be in the 40s. There are some model timing and intensity differences with the approaching system for Tue night. The NAM is faster and has a more ideal juxtaposition of synoptic and mesoscale lift via the approaching trough, the left entrance of an upper jet streak, and mid level frontogenesis. This lift also leads to more dynamic cooling aloft and greater potential for snow across the interior. Meanwhile the GFS/ECMWF are slower, not quite as wet, and warmer, with less potential for snow inland. The official forecast straddles these two scenarios, with potential for a 1-2 inch snowfall inland, a coating to an inch just inland of I-95 in CT and I-287 in the lower Hudson Valley and interior NE NJ, and little to no accumulation farther south where precip will be mostly in the form of light rain. Mid level moisture heads to the east by Wed morning, with any lingering precip changing mostly over to rain. Some clearing expected across the western half of the area. High temps will once again be in the 40s per guidance blend. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A closed upper low that is nearly stacked will remain across southeastern Canada Wednesday night into Friday. Meanwhile a shortwave will be rotating through the upper trough with a cold frontal boundary and trough moving through the Mid Atlantic Thursday. This cold front will bring a cold air mass into the Northeast with temperatures running around 10 degrees below normal. There is still some uncertainty as too how quickly the cold airmass will reach the northeast before becoming modified. The upper low opens and moves out late Friday and Friday night with weak upper ridging. The upper flow become nearly zonal across the continental United States Friday night and through the weekend. With high pressure moving off the northeast coast Sunday a return flow develops and warm advection sets up into Monday. Friday night the next shortwave to affect the area will be moving on shore of the Pacific northwest and quickly move across the country. Cyclogenesis occurs across the central plains Sunday into Sunday night with the low tracking through the Great Lakes. Precipitation Sunday night may start as snow inland and transition to rain Monday and will be dependent on how quickly the warmer air moves into the area. If a warmer layer moves in aloft before the low level cold air is scoured out there will be a chance for some freezing rain Sunday night. With the uncertainty did not include in the forecast at this time and leaned toward a warmer solution. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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High pressure will move through this morning. Low pressure approaches from the southwest late in the day, passing to the south tonight. VFR with few clouds through the morning. Increasing mid and high clouds are expected during the afternoon. Stratus develops toward 00Z as rain approaches the NYC metro. The rain and MVFR conditions sweep across the remainder of the area during the evening. Snow expected to at least mix with the rain at KSWF. Local IFR possible. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .Late tonight...MVFR/IFR in light rain with light snow or a wintry mix possible inland. .Wednesday...MVFR in stratus, with improvement during the afternoon. .Wednesday night-Thursday night...VFR. .Friday-Friday night...VFR. NW winds 15-20 kt, gusts 25-30 kt. .Saturday...VFR. NW winds 15 kt gusts 20-25 kt.
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&& .MARINE... A Small Craft Advisory/SCA remains in effect for the ocean and eastern Long Island Sound through tonight as high pressure builds in and NW winds gust up to 25-30 kt, highest S of Montauk. Ocean seas should also reach 5 ft S of Montauk, but remain less than 5 ft farther west due to limited offshore fetch. Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels Wednesday night through Thursday as low pressure remains to the north across southeastern Canada. A cold front will move through Thursday and a strong and gusty northwest flow will develops. Thursday night SCA gusts develop on the ocean waters, and then during Friday winds increase, with marginal gale force gusts possible on the ocean waters, and SCA gusts on the remainder of the forecast waters. Gale and SCA gusts continue into Friday night, then subside late as high pressure begins to build to the west. Saturday morning winds and seas are expected to be below SCA levels on all the waters as high pressure continues to build. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts are anticipated the next 7 days. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for ANZ330-350-353-355.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Goodman/MET NEAR TERM...GC/Goodman SHORT TERM...Goodman LONG TERM...MET AVIATION...PW MARINE...GC/Goodman/MET HYDROLOGY...Goodman/MET

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