Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 031654 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1254 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO TONIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS LOW TRACKS TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY...THEN OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL THEN LIFT SLOWLY UP THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY LINGER INTO THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... MINOR CHANGES MADE WITH THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK. WEAK 850-500 HPA RIDGING BUILDS IN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER DUE TO ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE. ON TRACK FOR HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THIS AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... UPSTREAM TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARD THE AREA THIS TIME FRAME...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST AND PASSING JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS CLOSE WITH REGARD TO SFC LOW TRACK...WITH CMC SLOWER. THE FORECAST TREND IS WETTER AS ANALYSIS OF 00Z MODEL SUITE INDICATES PLENTY OF LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...AND TO THE NORTH OF THE SFC LOW. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT...WITH A MAINLY CLOUDY SKY SATURDAY. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL MAKE THE JUMP TO LIKELY POPS SATURDAY DUE TO THIS WETTER CONSENSUS. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL SETTLE IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S AS CLOUDS INCREASE. THEN...COOLER READINGS SEEM LIKELY SATURDAY DUE TO CLOUDS...RAIN AND NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ONLY TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER TO MID 70S...WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE AREA IS OBVIOUSLY ON THE COOL SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY IS NOTED. STRATIFORM RAIN. THE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH PASS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. WOULD ANTICIPATE IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS RAIN ENDS AND SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS. COULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON CU ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT AND AS A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS. SOME CHANGES ARE NOW IN THE OFFING FOR WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY A DRY MID WEEK FORECAST. FIRST...UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS ACROSS SUNDAY NIGHT AND PASS TO THE NORTHEAST ON MON...ALLOWING HIGH CLOUDS FROM A WEAK DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO SPREAD IN MON INTO MON EVENING. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD EVENTUALLY ARRIVE LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. THEN AN UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA ON WED. WITH GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING QUASI- ZONAL WSW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL STATES...THE TAIL END OF THIS FRONT SHOULD BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AS WELL...WITH A SERIES OF CONVECTIVELY GENERATED MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG IT. THIS WILL MEAN CONTINUED CHANCES FOR CONVECTION BOTH DIURNAL AND NON-DIURNAL FROM WED INTO THU...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT. VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z SAT. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z...BUT MORE LIKELY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECASTS. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING. SEABREEZES THEN DEVELOP AT COASTAL TERMINALS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. DIRECTION AT KBDR/KGON MAY BE 20-30 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST DUE TO HYBRID SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. DIRECTION MAY BE 20-30 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST DUE TO HYBRID SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... .SATURDAY...MVFR LIKELY WITH RAIN DEVELOPING. LOW CHANCE OF IFR. E/NE WINDS 10-15G20KT...BECOMING N LATE. .SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS DIMINISHING SAT EVE. && .MARINE... MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK. WITH A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION......WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL...MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET IN SWELL TODAY OVER THE OCEAN WATERS. BY TONIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD THE EAST. WINDS INCREASE AS THEY BACK TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST SATURDAY. OVER THE OCEAN...WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THOUGH IN THIS OCCURRING...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES. SEAS BUILD LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...NOT TOO CONFIDENT IN REACHING 5 FEET UNTIL POSSIBLY SAT EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS. && .HYDROLOGY... BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A 1/2 INCH SATURDAY. NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED. SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVE UP THE COAST ON TUE...THEN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND STALLS NEARBY WED INTO THU. PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO OFFER ANY SPECIFICS AT THIS TIME. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2 FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED AT THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MINOR BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY FROM THE NORTHEAST...SO THE DAYTIME HIGH TIDES MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/PW NEAR TERM...MALOIT SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...GOODMAN AVIATION...BC/24 MARINE...GOODMAN/MALOIT/PW HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/PW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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