Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 171917 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 317 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure remains in control through the weekend. As it passes east early next week, rain chances increase as low pressure and a cold front approach.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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Very little adjustments were made in the near term despite warmer trend in guidance with temperatures tonight. After collaboration with surrounding offices decided against Frost Advisory with coverage limited to patchy. At the surface, high pressure to the west continues to draw closer as the winds go light WSW to variable tonight. With subtle warm air advection above the surface tonight, and very little winds and very dry conditions patchy frost should be achieved in northern most zones. Otherwise, crystal clear with lows similar to last night, perhaps just a few degrees warmer than last night in the coldest locations. A wider spread with tonight`s minimums are expected due to a more textbook radiational cooling set up.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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Sunny skies and a gradual moderation in temps begins on Wednesday as SW return flow develops around the high to the south. Temperatures should warm to slightly above seasonable levels in the upper 60s to lower 70s. It will not be nearly as cool Wednesday night with warm air advection pattern getting well underway.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Aloft, initial weak shortwave passes with no impact on our weather. Ridge builds late this week and through the weekend. Thereafter, differences in the global models arise with regard to timing and eventual strength of upstream trough as it moves toward the east coast Monday and Tuesday. At the surface, a weak cold front passes Thursday night into early Friday. Otherwise, high pressure builds late this week, and passes off the coast this weekend. A stronger cold front approaches from the west Monday and Tuesday. Again, due to differences in the models aloft, differences are noted on progression of the front, and any associated waves of low pressure that may ride along it. Higher confidence in an increase in clouds Monday and Tuesday, along with increasing rain chances, mainly beginning Monday night into Tuesday. In the Thursday through Sunday time frame, expect abundant sunshine along with daytime highs averaging around 5-10 degrees above normal. In fact, these above normal temperatures continue Monday and Tuesday as well in spite of the increase in clouds.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure remains just southwest of the region through Wednesday. VFR through the TAF period. Winds gradually back to the west- southwest this afternoon. Speeds remain less than 10 kt through the period. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information...including hourly TAF wind component fcsts can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments are expected. KLGA TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments are expected. KEWR TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments are expected. KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments are expected. KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments are expected. KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments are expected. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .Wednesday-Sunday...VFR. && .MARINE...
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High pressure settles just south of the coastal waters into Wednesday with sub SCA conditions. This is expected to continue through the remainder of the week. Gusts may gust close to 20 kt late Thursday/Thursday night ahead of a weak cold front. As high pressure builds Friday through Saturday before passing east Sunday, expect sub SCA conditions through the period.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic issues expected through this weekend. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PW NEAR TERM...JE SHORT TERM...JE LONG TERM...PW AVIATION...BC MARINE...JE/PW HYDROLOGY...JE/PW

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