-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KOKX 180729
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
329 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE TRI STATE AREA TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. A WARM FRONT MAY PASS THROUGH THE REGION
SUNDAY OR MONDAY.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE NW HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH THEN SAGS DOWN
INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHERN AND SOME WESTERN
ZONES HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS MORNING. THE REST OF
THE AREA WILL HAVE THEIR CHANCES MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND HAS ADDITIONAL LIFT COURTESY OF A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE. PERHAPS THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LIFT FROM BEING
NEAR THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK.

CAPE VALUES PROBABLY NOT AS HIGH AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT AS
STEEP AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY. BUT WITH CAPES AWAY FROM THE COAST
STILL IN THE RANGE OF 1000-1500 J/KG COMBINED WITH A BULK SHEAR OF
30-40KT...THERE IS A CHANCE OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE TSTMS.

MAV/NAM MOS BLEND WITH A FEW SLIGHT LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS WAS USED FOR
HIGH TEMPS.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
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THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH...MOVING COMPLETELY OFFSHORE
PROBABLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. STILL ENOUGH LIFT...CAPE AND
SHEAR FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE TSTMS. RAIN CHANCES THEN
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH THE FRONT OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN BEHIND IT.

LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT SHOULD BE JUST FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK
ON WEDNESDAY TO KEEP SHOWER CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST. A TROUGH
AXIS ALOFT AND ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE SHIFTS IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH ONLY FOR
SOME CLOUD BUILDUP IN SPOTS. IT SHOULD FEEL LESS MUGGY WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE 50S AND HIGHS MOSTLY 75-80.
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&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH MEAN TROUGHING CONTINUING OVER THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION AND IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIR AND SEASONABLE WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WEAK PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH COULD SET OFF ISOLATED PULSE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY EACH
AFT/EVE...MAINLY OFF THE NW HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

HEIGHTS APPEAR TO BUILD THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A
TREND TOWARDS MORE SUMMER LIKE WEATHER. THIS WOULD ALSO BRING
POTENTIAL FOR MCS ACTIVITY AS A WARM FRONT WORKS INTO THE VICINITY
OF THE REGION AND THE AREA LIES ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
WESTERLIES.
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&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE TRI-STATE THROUGH
TUESDAY...THEN PUSH TO THE SOUTH BY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. A
COASTAL LOW MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE TUESDAY EVENING.

VFR AT MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. COULD SEE SOME
MVFR HZ OUTSIDE OF THE CITY TERMINALS 9-16Z TIME FRAME...WITH BEST
CHANCE NORTHERN/CT TERMINALS.

HAVE INTRODUCED PROB30 FOR -TSRA THIS AFTERNOON - SPECIFYING A 4
HOUR WINDOW WHERE IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY THERE WILL BE CONVECTION
AT THIS TIME. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW
ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD THUNDER WILL BE - SO ONLY HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE FOR PROB30 AT THIS TIME. HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS IF THEY FORM...SO HAVE GUSTS UP TO 40KT
IN THE PROB30.

STORMS SHOULD BE GONE BY AROUND 23-02Z FROM W TO E...THEN RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD LEAVE MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR CEILINGS/FOG
THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN IFR IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO REFLECT IN
TAFS AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...GIVE WAY TO ESE-SE FLOW UNDER 10 KT
THIS MORNING...EXCEPT NE KLGA...THEN BECOME SE-S THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE. NE WINDS
G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
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TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS WITH WINDS AT 10 KT OR LESS TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS PICK UP ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. WINDS ON THE OCEAN COULD GUST TO
JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT THIS WOULD BE FOR
ONLY A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE A
LITTLE BY THE END OF THE DAY.

MAINLY SUB SCA CONDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LATE WEEK INTO SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. MARGINAL SCA OCEAN SEAS MAY BE POSSIBLE BY
LATE WEEK WITH A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT
THIS POINT.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL TODAY INTO TONIGHT. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. THIS COULD CAUSE MINOR
FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS LOW DURING
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
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&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV