Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 171610 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1210 PM EDT Sun Mar 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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A weak cold front dissipates to the east today, while a trough resides across the area. Associated low pressure tracks slowly east across eastern Canada to start the week, sending reinforcing shots of cold air into the region. Weak high pressure moves in for Tuesday. Low pressure brings a cold front through the area on Wednesday. High pressure then briefly moves in for Thursday with another frontal system possible for Friday and into the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Showers have passed east of region, mainly aided by a LLJ ahead of the 85h cold front. Surface cold front is to difficult to discern and may have washed out. At the surface, while winds continue to veer around to the W and strengthen, mild conditions will continue today surface. In fact, a thermal/lee trough will reside over the area today before pushing eastward this evening. Cold advection will be more pronounced tonight. West winds this afternoon will gusts up to around 30 mph. A few instability showers will be possible across the lower Hudson Valley and into portions of northeastern New Jersey this afternoon and possibly into the early evening. Again, the CAMs have been showing this and have maintained slight chance probabilities. However, with little moisture and drying lower levels, little precipitation may reach the ground. Highs will range from the mid 50s to lower 60s, warmest in and around the NYC metro.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... Dry weather is expected tonight through Tuesday. Another weak cold front, or surface trough does move through the region Monday, however, there is very little moisture and there will be a drying westerly flow. There may be a few sprinkles inland. Otherwise more seasonable temperatures will be across the region tonight through Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A large upper level trough over the Northeast remains in place midweek with cooler temperatures for the area. Embedded energy in the trough approaches from the northwest on Wednesday brining with it an associated surface low pressure system. This low passes to our north, dragging a cold front through the area during the day on Wednesday. This may bring some showers to the northern half of the CWA, though a lack of moisture will prevent there being widespread precipitation. The cold front moves through by Wednesday night with high pressure attempting to build in from the west. As the low to the east pulls away and the high pressure approaching from the west, a tightening pressure gradient will allow for increasingly breezy northwest winds to advect cooler air into the area for Thursday. Heights rise a bit as the mid-level flow become more zonal and high pressure moves over the area. Models then differ as to the handling of the potential next system where the GFS and CMC both produce a fairly strong coastal low for late Friday and Saturday. The ECMWF has a stronger high pressure over the area for longer and keeps the area fairly dry and quiet through the weekend. For now, kept the chance of showers in the extended forecast to indicate the uncertainty in the eventual development of this system. Temperatures for the extended period will be largely at or below average. Temperatures in the upper 40s to near 50s on Wednesday will drop into the low to middle 40s for Thursday through Saturday. && .AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A cold front will pushes east tonight with weak high pressure building in behind it tonight. VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period as showers have pushed east of the area. KSWF may see a shower move through this afternoon, but confidence was not high enough to include in the TAF. W Winds will behind the cold front after 15Z with winds increasing to 15-20 kt in this afternoon. Gusts of 25 to 30 kt are expected through the afternoon. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Start and end time of gusts could be 1-3 hours off from forecast. Timing of wind shift may be off by an hour. OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... Monday: VFR. W winds 10-15G20kt, becoming WNW in the evening Tuesday: VFR. WNW winds 15G20-25kt. Wednesday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of rain inland, possibly mixed with snow. W winds 10-15G20kt. Thursday: VFR. WNW winds 10-15G20-25kt. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&& .MARINE...
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SCA kept up for NY Harbor and the Great South Bay this afternoon due to the proximity to land and greater gusts potential around 25 kt. SCAs are up on the ocean was well, expected to end from west to east this afternoon into this evening. A stronger pressure gradient force develops on Tuesday, as high pressure builds to the west, and wind gusts may reach SCA levels across all the forecast waters and ocean seas may be marginally 5 feet. Near Small Craft conditions possible on the ocean Wednesday night but gradual subsiding in the wind and waves should allow for sub-SCA conditions on all waters by Wednesday morning. A tightening pressure gradient by Wednesday afternoon and evening will allow for widespread small craft conditions on all waters by Wednesday evening. SCA conditions likely persist through the day on Thursday before gradually subsiding Thursday night.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER... Only a few hundredths of an inch of wetting rain is expected today, and no significant wetting rain has occurred since March 9/10. And dry conditions are expected through Thursday. Minimum relative humidity this afternoon will be around 35 percent with a southwest to west wind of 15 to 20 mph, gusting to around 25 mph. Drier conditions are expected Monday with the minimum relative humidity 25 to 30 percent, with a west wind 10 to 15 mph, and gusts 15 to 20 mph. Tuesday and Thursday minimum relative humidity will again range from 25 to 30 percent, with Wednesday`s 35 to 45 percent. Gusty westerly winds are expected during the day Tuesday through Thursday. The highest winds and gusts are expected Thursday with winds 15 to 20 mph and gusts 25 to 30 mph. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts are expected today through the end of the week. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ338- 345. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350- 353. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ355.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MET/MW NEAR TERM...MET/DW SHORT TERM...MET LONG TERM...MW AVIATION...JP/MW MARINE...MET/MW/DW FIRE WEATHER... HYDROLOGY...MET/MW

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