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065
FXUS61 KOKX 121633
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1233 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A weakening frontal system will remain to the west this afternoon
as weak high pressure remains over the area through Sunday night.
A warm front will pass to the north on Monday. High pressure will
move offshore on Tuesday, with low pressure approaching from the
west. The low will pass to the south Wednesday into Thursday.
Weak high pressure will then follow going into Friday before
another low approaches for the start of next weekend.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Band of steady light rain across the NYC metro area is slowly
weakening. This band delivered a swath of 1/4 to 1/2 inch so far
from Staten Island through Essex/Union counties, and much lesser
amounts to the east and mostly dry across central/eastern
portions of S CT and Long Island. Disturbed Cu field seen on vis
satellite where there had been BINOVC across parts of S CT,
also in parts of the lower Hudson Valley. Showers have
developed ahead of schedule near Meriden, and expect additional
development in/near the aforementioned areas as a shortwave
trough dives down the back side of a departing upper low moving
E of New England to provide lift along with sfc convergence
invof a weak boundary across S CT. Fcst soundings still look
stable enough to preclude mention of thunder.

High temps limited to the  A fairly deep shortwave trough
passing over today will limit highs to the mid 50s in most
places. Some spots across interior SE CT may approach 60.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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Added isolated/sct evening showers to a good portion of S CT
and also to the forks of Long Island as the aforementioned
shortwave trough moves across. Otherwise, heights aloft will
rise tonight as the closed low continues departing to the east,
with dry conditions throughout overnight. Clouds should slowly
diminish through the night with mostly clear to partly cloudy
skies by early Monday morning. Another chilly night is expected
with lows in the 40s.

A ridge will continue to build on Monday leading to noticeably
warmer weather compared to Sunday with highs in the lower/mid 60
to the east with onshore flow, and western inland areas in the
upper 60s to lower 70s. A warm front will also be skirting the
area to the north, extending from a low in Canada. This warm
front could lead to a few showers. Confidence in the showers
occurring though, is low due to the ridging aloft and surface
high working against them. PW around 1-1.2" will be in place,
though.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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From the analysis of some large scale deterministic weather
prediction forecast models, the following features are noted.

In the mid levels, the local area appears to be in between a
trough and a ridge. The trough is over SE Canada and the ridge
is southeast of the area, based in the Atlantic. The ridge
moves farther east Tuesday night into Wednesday with a trough
moving in. The center of the trough moves across either
Wednesday night or Thursday. There are model differences
resolving this feature.

For Thursday night through Friday night, the local area is shown
to be in between troughs in the mid levels, with some brief
ridging. Next trough moves in for the start of next weekend.

At the surface, a warm front moves farther north of the area
Tuesday with low pressure developing along a cold front to the
west. There are multiple areas of low pressure developing along
this front. Eventually, there is one main low that is forecast
to move south of Long Island Wednesday and then farther out into
the Atlantic Wednesday night into Thursday. There are model
differences in their depiction of the low and its translational
speed.

Chances for rain showers increase Tuesday, with rain showers
expected to be widespread across the area by Tuesday night and
continuing into Wednesday. Chances for rain showers remain for
Wednesday night with a slight chance of rain showers Thursday. Rain
could be moderate to possibly heavy at times Tuesday night into
Wednesday. With colder air aloft and some elevated instability
potentially, there could be a few embedded thunderstorms. Just left
the thunderstorms as slight chance in terms of their probability.

By Thursday night and Friday, high pressure starts to build in
from the north and east, which will maintain mainly dry
conditions through much of Friday night.

The next low provides the next chances for rain starting out
next weekend.

Temperatures in the daytime look to average above normal
Tuesday, below normal Wednesday, close to normal Thursday and
Friday, and below normal again next Saturday.
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&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A frontal system passes to the south with weak high pressure
returning this afternoon through the rest of the TAF period.

Mainly MVFR this morning with conditions improving to VFR this
afternoon and evening. Light rain will continue for the NYC
metro terminals and Lower Hudson Valley terminals, but should be
diminishing into the early afternoon. Any rain further east will
be spotty. An isolated shower cannot be ruled out this afternoon
mainly east of the NYC metro, but not enough confidence to
include in the TAF. VFR prevails tonight.

Light S winds should become SSW-SW by late this afternoon and
evening. Winds likely become light and variable tonight.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Flight categories could fluctuate between VFR and MVFR into
early this afternoon.

Wind direction may vary between 150 and 200 into early this
afternoon, but wind speeds under 10 kt.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Monday: VFR.

Tuesday: MVFR or lower possible in mainly afternoon showers. S
winds gusts near 15-20kt coastal terminals.

Tuesday night: MVFR or lower likely in showers. S wind gusts
near 15kt coastal terminals.

Wednesday: MVFR or lower still likely in showers and possible
t-storms. SE wind gusts 15-20kt, becoming NE late day and at
night.

Wednesday night: Chance of showers and MVFR. NE wind gusts
15-20kt.

Thursday: Mainly VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
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Winds are expected to remain below SCA conditions through
Sunday. Ocean seas Monday evening/early night may briefly touch
5 ft before dropping back down to 4 ft.

Longer term, initially below SCA conditions expected Tuesday
into Tuesday night. Then, SCA conditions become probable
Wednesday into Wednesday night which could very well linger
into Thursday, especially on the ocean.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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Rainfall close to to 1/2 inch today noted across Staten Island
and nearby portions of urban NE NJ. No hydrologic impacts
expected.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BG/JM
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JM/DS
MARINE...BG/JM/BR
HYDROLOGY...BG/JM/BR