Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 200240 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 940 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONT FOLLOWING ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FRIDAY AND PASSES EAST BY SUNDAY. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE WEST AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY. THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY. THIS FRONT TRACKS TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... AFTER AN INITIAL DROP IN TEMPS THIS EVENING...SW WINDS AND CLOUD COVER ARE HELPING TEMPS HOLD NEARLY STEADY INTERIOR AND RISE ALONG THE COAST. TEMPS MAY DROP BACK DOWN LATE TONIGHT ACROSS INTERIOR WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WEAK WINDS...BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO RISE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. STRONGEST RISES OVER EASTERN LI AND SE CT...WHERE THERE IS BETTER EXPOSURE TO WINDS ARRIVING OFF THE WARMER WATERS. IN FACT SW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH LIKELY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COASTAL AREAS THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WAA AND A LLJ MOVING THROUGH SUPPLIES SOME LIFT...AND WITH DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THESE EASTERN ZONES...SCATTERED SPRINKLES SE CT/E LI AND FLURRIES SE CT INTERIOR. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH DURING THE MORNING...BUT WITH INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE...EXPECTING A DRY PASSAGE. CAA ISN`T PARTICULARLY STRONG DURING THE DAYTIME...SO THE PASSAGE WILL BE MARKED PRIMARILY BY A DROP IN DEWPOINTS. WHAT MINOR CAA DOES OCCUR SHOULD BE OFFSET TO A DEGREE BY COMPRESSIONAL HEATING FROM A MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW. LEANED SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV MOS FOR HIGHS BASED ON FORECAST TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT... INCREASING CAA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER SE CANADA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...SO BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... TROUGH MOVES EAST...REPLACED BY WEAK RIDGING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. PACIFIC ENERGY EVENTUALLY DIVES ACROSS THE SW AND MOVES EAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH SATURDAY. THIS TROUGH PIVOTS NORTHEASTWARD...AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CARVES OUT A DEEP MID WEST TROUGH BY MONDAY...ALLOWING RIDGE TO AMPLIFY OVER THE EAST COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS TROUGH/CLOSED UPPER LOW OPENS UP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS IT LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST...WELL NORTH INTO CANADA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA FRIDAY...AND PASS JUST TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO A WARM FRONT LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. BY MONDAY...THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...PASSING TO THE NORTH AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO CANADA. A COLD FRONT THEN SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY...PASSING JUST TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THIS FRONT TRACKING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IN FACT...DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE SUNDAY. HOWEVER...RAIN IS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE WARM FRONT. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF EARLY MONDAY...WITH MUCH LESS COVERAGE BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...RAIN IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH. BEST CHANCE THOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME FRAME LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. WILL UP POPS A CATEGORY. TEMPS FRIDAY REMAIN QUITE CHILLY. IN ADDITION...PERSISTENTLY STRONG/GUSTY NW WINDS WILL ADD TO THE CHILL. TEMPS FRIDAY WILL REACH THE 30S...WITH TEENS AND 20S EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. THESE EXPECTED HIGHS/LOWS ARE WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. BY SATURDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION IS UNDERWAY WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 40S. HOWEVER...THIS IS STILL BELOW NORMAL BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES. SOUTH FLOW AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WILL BOOST TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL SUNDAY...WITH A NON DIURNAL TEMP TREND EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND JUMPS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. MONDAY WILL FEATURE TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE 60S AS AREA REMAINS WARM SECTORED. THEN TEMPS COOL DOWN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUE AND WED...WITH WED BEING THE COLDER DAY. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A CDFNT ON THU. AN ISOLD FLURRY OR SPRINKLE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...NO IMPACTS EXPECTED WITH COND REMAINING VFR. MAINLY VFR THU...ALTHOUGH THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CIGS TO DEVELOP AROUND 3000 FT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHC FOR A FLURRY WITH NO IMPACTS. SW FLOW INCREASES THRU THE NGT...WITH WLY FLOW DEVELOPING THU WITH THE FROPA. GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT POSSIBLE THU AND THU NGT. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .THU NIGHT...VFR. GUSTY W FLOW 20-25 KT...MAINLY COASTAL TERMINALS. .FRI...VFR. WNW WINDS G20-25KT. .FRI NIGHT-SAT NIGHT...VFR. .SUN...MAINLY VFR. .SUN NIGHT-MON...MVFR/IFR. POSSIBLY SUB-IFR. RA AND FG WITH LLWS POSSIBLE. && .MARINE... WINDS/GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH A LLJ PASSING THROUGH AND STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER MILD WATERS. SOME CAA/GUSTINESS THEN FOLLOWS WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE DURING THURSDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE PERIODS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WHERE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOT OCCURRING...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO DROP THE GALE WARNING IN FAVOR FOR SCA. AFTER COLLABORATION...GALE WARNING INCLUDES ALL OF THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN ANTICIPATION OF WINDS INCREASING AGAIN FROM A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT THURSDAY NIGHT. SCA FOR THE HARBOR/NY HARBOR/SOUTH SHORE BAYS HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. GUSTY W/NW WINDS CONTINUE FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH MOVES JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS EARLY SATURDAY...THEN MOVES EAST LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE W/SW...THEN TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT SUNDAY. THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...AND WINDS CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. OVERALL...FAIRLY GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. SUB SCA THOUGH IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS RAMP BACK UP TO SCA LEVELS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ROUGH SEAS FRIDAY WILL SUBSIDE AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...INCREASING SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS YET AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WILL FOLLOW WAVE WATCH III FAIRLY CLOSELY...ALTHOUGH BELIEVE SEA FORECAST ARE A FOOT OR TWO TOO LOW SATURDAY GIVEN EXPECTED WINDS. && .HYDROLOGY... DRY WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THIS EVENT AT THIS TIME. && .CLIMATE... OLD RECORD LOWS AND NEW RECORD LOWS FOR TODAY 11/19... NYC....18/1936 JFK....27/2008 NEW RECORD 23 LGA....28/2008 NEW RECORD 22 EWR....19/1936 BDR....24/1986 NEW RECORD 23 ISP....23/1997 NEW RECORD 22 THE FOLLOWING ARE RECORD LOWEST MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY 11/19... NYC....34/1882 JFK....37/2008 LGA....35/1951 EWR....35/1951 BDR....35/2008 ISP....35/2008 && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ335-338- 345. GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-340-350-353- 355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/PW NEAR TERM...JC/NV SHORT TERM...JC LONG TERM...PW AVIATION...JMC/JM MARINE...JC/PW HYDROLOGY...JC/PW CLIMATE...

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