Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 172026 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 426 PM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will build north of the region through the beginning of the week. Meanwhile, tropical cyclone Jose will lift northward in the Western Atlantic waters through the middle of the week, with the potential for it to come close to the region. Please refer to National Hurricane Center products for more details on Jose. By late week, high pressure builds across the area once again.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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Ridge of high pressure remains in place tonight. Main issue tonight will be the return of stratus and fog, which is expected to re-develop after dark. Winds should remain fairly light, however, there may be just enough of a wind speed to prevent fog from becoming dense. This will need to be monitored. can not rule out the need for dense fog advisories once again tonight. Lows tonight fall into the 60s. A high risk of rip currents continues across Atlantic beaches today. A high surf advisory remains in effect.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
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Low clouds and fog burn off/lift mid to late Monday morning, with partial sunshine returning by afternoon. While it should be a fairly dry day, can not rule out a few isolated showers is possible. Temperatures Monday climb into the 70s.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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All attention continues on Jose during this period. Operational and ensemble model guidance coming into better agreement on lifting Jose northward through Tuesday morning, but still some differences remain in speed, track, and intensity during the eastward curving process near the 40/70 lat/lon benchmark Tuesday Night/Wed period. Some subtle westward shifts have been noted in the 12z guidance from the 00z guidance last night, with expectation the storm tracks south and east of Long Island passing anywhere from 80-100 miles from Montauk Point. Please continue to monitor NHC forecasts for official information about tropical cyclone Jose, at http:/hurricanes.gov. Confidence in a period of tropical storm winds and heavy rain is increasing for LI/CT during the Tuesday into Wed period. The exact track of Jose will affect the intensity of winds, rain, and coastal impacts for the region during this time period. High confidence for Jose to bring increasingly dangerous surf, widespread dune erosion (waves hitting base of dunes), and localized washovers (wave overtopping dunes) into middle of next week. Potential for minor to moderate coastal flooding is increasing with the greatest impacts during the late Tuesday - Wednesday timeframe. See the tides and coastal flooding section for additional details. Rainfall amounts are expected to range between 1 and 3 inches, with the highest amounts across Eastern long Island and eastern CT. The NWS will continue to monitor the progression of Jose closely. Please stay tuned for subsequent updates.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Weak high pressure remains over the terminals through tonight. VFR at most terminals for the afternoon. Expecting flight categories to eventually lower to IFR at all terminals by midnight before improving late Mon morning/afternoon. Winds remain light today and tonight, mainly SE this aftn, backing ENE tonight. Winds increase to around 10 kt Mon aftn. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .Monday...Mainly VFR in the afternoon. Possible MVFR in chance showers at night. .Tuesday...Mainly MVFR in showers. Gusty NE winds possible, watching Jose as it approaches from the south. .Wednesday...Any MVFR conditions improve to VFR. Gusty N winds possible as Jose passes south and east of the area. .Thursday...VFR. .Friday...VFR likely. && .MARINE...
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SCA for hazardous seas remains through Monday due to swells from Jose. Winds will remain on the light side through this period. As Jose lifts north through the Western Atlantic Monday night into Tuesday, seas on the ocean waters will likely build into the 10 to 15 ft range and could reach 15 to 20 ft by Tuesday. Seas near the entrance to eastern LI Sound from the ocean will also become rough and could approach the 7 to 10 ft range. Winds could start reaching SCA levels Mon night, and then gale force by Tue morning as the pressure gradient tightens between Jose and high pressure over the Northeast. The conditions could extend well into Wed. The timing and hazards on the coastal waters will all depend on the strength and track of Jose.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... No widespread hydrologic impacts are expected through Monday. Any hydrologic impacts from developing tropical cyclone Jose depend largely on forecast track and intensity. Please continue to monitor NHC and WPC forecasts for official information about Jose via: http:/hurricanes.gov and http:/www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Astronomical tides will rise through the middle of the week with the approach of a new moon. These rising water levels combined with incoming energetic swells building from Jose, will bring increasingly dangerous surf of potentially 12-16 ft by Tuesday Night into Wed. This will cause widespread dune erosion (waves hitting base of dunes), and localized washovers (wave overtopping dunes) into middle of next week. Minor to moderate coastal flooding potential is increasing with the greatest impacts during the late Tuesday - Wednesday timeframe. With uncertainty in track, speed, location in the day 3-4 period, have leaned towards the higher end of Stevens and P-ETSS guidance envelope for surge forecasts. This points to potential for 2 to 3 ft of surge during the late Tue into Wed high tides, which would result in widespread minor to moderate coastal flooding. These surge values could result in 2 to 3 ft inundation in our most vulnerable locations along the southern bays of southern LI/NYC and Peconic/Gardiners Bay, with generally 1 to 2 ft across other vulnerable coastal areas. Wave action on top of elevated waters levels could exacerbate impacts along the immediate shoreline. As confidence increases in storm details over the next 24 hours, we will be able to refine these surge value and and potential coastal flood hazards/impacts.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None. NY...High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for NYZ075-080- 081-178-179. High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for NYZ075-080-081- 178-179. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...BC NEAR TERM...BC SHORT TERM...BC LONG TERM...BC AVIATION...JC MARINE...BC HYDROLOGY...BC TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...nv

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