Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 190238 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1038 PM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak and dry cold front pushes south through the region Wednesday afternoon - still record warmth for Wednesday. A warm front moves back north on Thursday. A cold front and associated wave of low pressure moves through Friday with rain likely. Cool high pressure returns for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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SCT-BKN clouds spread over the region overnight reaching NYC after midnight. Pockets of stratus will also simultaneously develop across the entire area. In addition to the clouds, winds in the boundary layer increase in advance of the front. Thus, have removed fog from the overnight forecast. Temps bottom out in the lower to mid 60s - above the normal high !
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... A "Cold" Front passes through around mid day from NW to SE on Wednesday. Skies start mostly cloudy...but scatter from NW to SE in the afternoon. We could have a sprinkle in the morning...but not forecasting any measurable PCPN as all NWP indicates a dry FROPA. Temps are forecast to reach levels similar to those of today with the SW flow ahead of the front despite the cloud cover. Records should once again be broken (see climate section below). Temps Wednesday night drop to around 60 in the NY Metro...but near 50 well inland...perhaps mid 40s. The "Blend" is slow to respond to changes in guidance which dropped several degrees with this cycle. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Leaned away from GFS, and its weak low pressure depiction over the Atlantic. Vigorous upper trough approaches the area Thursday and Thursday night. Ample lift ahead of the trough/cold front, with plenty of moisture noted for showers increasing in coverage from the west. In addition, moisture associated with tropical low over the Atlantic will advect northward. Area should see impacts from the offshore low, and front/upper trough by Friday, with highest probabilities for showers occurring during that time. Prior to that, highest probabilities remain over western or northwestern sections Thursday into Thursday evening. Once the entire system pushes away from the area, conditions will dry out. Upper trough lags as it cuts off, slowly tracking across the northeast this weekend. A spot shower or two is possible, but there will likely be too much dry air in northwest downslope flow. Dry weather persists for the latter portion of the weekend and into early next week. A backdoor front, associated with additional shortwave energy aloft, should come through dry Monday. Warm conditions ahead of the trough/front expected with above normal temperatures Thursday and Friday. Then, cooler temperatures are anticipated for the weekend and into early next week as canadian high pressure builds. In fact, temperatures should average a few degrees below normal. Gusty conditions are expected this weekend as sfc low deepens to the north. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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VFR as weak high pressure remains over the terminals. SW winds continue to subside overnight. .Outlook for 00Z Thursday through Sunday... .WED night...VFR. .THU-FRI...MVFR or lower possible in potential showers, especially Thursday night into Friday. .SAT...VFR. W Wind G 30 KT. .SUN...VFR. W Wind G 25 KT.
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&& .MARINE... A very marginal SCA on the Ocean waters this evening into WED morning with residual long period SE swell and a SSW flow ahead of an approaching weak cold front. Winds will weaken WED morning...and gradually veer to NE in the AFTN. Thus, ocean seas should gradually subside as well. Tranquil conditions are expected Thursday. Easterly winds persist, then turn to the southeast Thursday night as a warm front moves through. Winds eventually turn toward the west, and increase Friday night, continuing through the weekend. Seas build by late Friday/Friday night and continue through the weekend in response to the gusty westerly winds. Eastern waters will observe the higher seas due to fetch. && .HYDROLOGY... No rainfall through midweek. Uncertainty with regard to precipitation amounts continues Thursday through Friday. There is the potential for at least a half inch of rain, but it could be significantly less. && .CLIMATE... Record warmth continues on Wednesday. Wednesday October 19: Climate SiteRECORDNWS Forecast High Bridgeport 81/1963 79 Central Park 83/1963 83 Islip 74/1998 82 Kennedy 75/1965 80 LaGuardia 80/1945 81 Newark 82/194585 && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350-353- 355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Tongue/PW NEAR TERM...JMC/Tongue SHORT TERM...Tongue LONG TERM...PW AVIATION...JC MARINE...Tongue/PW HYDROLOGY...Tongue/PW CLIMATE... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.