Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 160239 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1039 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE OUT TO SEA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH THEN LIFTS UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND UP INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG A STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND PASSES EAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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THE COLD FRONT PASSED BLOCK ISLAND AT 935 PM...AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE CWA OVERNIGHT. SWITCHING INTO WINTER WEATHER MODE WITH CHANGEOVER ONGOING ACROSS ORANGE AND WESTERN PASSAIC COUNTIES. COOP REPORTED A CHANGE TO ALL SNOW WITH A COATING AT W MILFORD NJ...WITH OTHER REPORTS OF SLEET AND SNOW INTO MUCH OF NJ AND THE HUDSON VALLEY W OF THE RIVER. RADAR INDICATES ADDITIONAL MDT TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION FROM THE DC AREA NORTHWARD INTO NJ. AS A RESULT...UPPED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE W. THIS LOOKS TO BE AN ELEVATION FAVORED EVENT...WITH THE HIGHEST SPOTS POSSIBLY GETTING AROUND 3 INCHES...AND THE LOWER ELEVATIONS PERHAPS LESS THAN AN INCH. A GENERAL 1-3 INCHES FOR ORANGE AND WESTERN PASSAIC WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE WITH THE UPDATE. BECAUSE 3 INCH AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ISOLD AND CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AT THIS TIME...NO ADVISORY ISSUED. SLOWED THE ENDING OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA DUE TO THE SLOWER TREND INDICATED BY RADAR...SUPPORTING THE SLOWER 18Z NAM SOLN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND FREEZING. THUS... THE FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO ALSO INCLUDE NYC...LONG ISLAND...AND COASTAL CT. THIS IS IN ADDITION TO MOST OF NE NJ AND ROCKLAND AND WESTCHESTER COUNTIES IN NEW YORK. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING COLDER. BASED ON THE ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR MASS...USED MODEL 2M TEMPS FOR LOWS...WHICH WAS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW MOS GUIDANCE. LOWS WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORDS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON WED WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR MASS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S...WHICH IS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL LINGER INTO THE AFT...MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE THE MID AND UPPER 30S. WED NIGHT WILL FEATURE ANOTHER POSSIBLE RECORD COLD NIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE NYC METRO DROPPING BELOW FREEZING. ANOTHER FREEZE IS POSSIBLE. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE REGION WILL BE ON THE WEST SIDE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY SHIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN SETS UP AN EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS ONSHORE FLOW SERVES TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ON THURSDAY AND LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S ON FRIDAY. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING COULD PROMOTE DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME. THE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG A STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE LOW FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO PREVENT A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT. THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE AMPLITUDE...TIMING...AND PLACEMENT OF THE VORTICITY MAXIMA WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH HOWEVER. AT THE VERY LEAST...SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND HAVE CONTINUED A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE. DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL IN THE 50S. A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUES INTO MONDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN DURING THIS TIME WITH DRY CONDITIONS. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AND THEN WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH ON TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. HIGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT THIS TIME SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE 60S.
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&& .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM MVFR VARIABLE IFR TO VFR INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHOULD SEE -SHRA TRANSITION OVER TO AT LEAST A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT ALL TERMINALS...AND OVER TO ALL -SN AT KSWF AND POSSIBLY KHPN BEFORE ENDING. POTENTIAL FOR 1-3 INCH ACCUMULATION KSWF...AND LESS THAN 1 INCH KHPN. LOW PROBABILITY OF A COATING OF SLUSH ELSEWHERE. WINDS NW G20-30KT THROUGH THE NIGHT. COULD SEE ISOLATED 35-40KT GUSTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS WINDS VEER TO THE NNW. WIND GUSTS SHOULD ABATE BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE N. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR. E WIND G AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE. .THURSDAY NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...VFR. .SATURDAY...PSBL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CHANCE OF -SHRA. W-NW WIND G25-30KT POSSIBLE. .SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR
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&& .MARINE... GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS FOR NW FLOW UP TO 35 KT OVERNIGHT. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE THEN POSSIBLE ON WED...MAINLY WITH LINGERING 5 FT SEAS. SCA WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY ON THURSDAY AS EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES. WINDS WILL TREND BELOW SCA LEVELS FRIDAY BUT SEAS ON OFFSHORE WATERS SHOULD STAY ABOVE SCA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL RELAX ON SATURDAY AS REGION WEAKER FLOW SETS UP OVER THE WATERS. SEAS AND WINDS COULD RETURN TO SCA LEVELS ON SUNDAY WITH INCREASED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. && .HYDROLOGY...
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THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS ENDED ACROSS THE REGION. IN GENERAL...UP TO 3/4 OF AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS E OF NYC. NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS TO BE REACHED. MONITOR THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM NWS TAUNTON MA. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .CLIMATE...
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RECORD LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY APRIL 16: EWR - 26 IN 1943 FORECAST LOW - 29 BDR - 29 IN 1981 FORECAST LOW - 29 NYC - 29 IN 1928 FORECAST LOW - 29 LGA - 31 IN 1943 FORECAST LOW - 29 JFK - 33 IN 1962 FORECAST LOW - 30 ISP - 32 IN 2008 FORECAST LOW - 30
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ009>012. NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ069>075- 078>081-176>179. NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ004-006- 103>108. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340- 345-350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC/DW/DS NEAR TERM...JMC/DW SHORT TERM...DW LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...MALOIT MARINE...JMC/DW/DS HYDROLOGY...DW/DS CLIMATE...LN

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