Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 021730 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 130 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM FROM COASTAL NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN SLOWLY SLIDES OFFSHORE AND MERGES WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH THROUGH TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WAS ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND EXTENDED SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AT MIDDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST OF LONG ISLAND. NO FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN AS CLEARING OCCURRED THIS MORNING AND RAISED AFTERNOON HIGHS...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. A SEA BREEZE SHOULD HALT FURTHER TEMPERATURE RISES. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... TONIGHT THRU THU MORNING...WARM AND DRY WITH THE REDEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG. THU AFTERNOON AND THU NIGHT...A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOLLOWING THE LAST 90 DEG DAY IN THIS STRETCH. A DIGGING SHORT WAVE RIDGING DOWN THE UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL ALLOW A CANADIAN HIGH PRES SYSTEM TO BUILD SOUTH PUSHING A MORE SIGNIFICANT BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. BASED ON MORE WELL DEFINED SYSTEM FEATURES...POPS WERE INCREASED TO 30-40 PCT FOR SCT TSTMS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT. INCREASING NE AND E WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE USHERING IN A MARITIME POLAR AIR MASS WITH FORECAST TEMPS AT LEAST 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT HAS OCCURRED THIS WEEK. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING THROUGH THE PERIOD. DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS RIDGE THEN GETS ABSORBED INTO THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED WELL OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE REGION THEN REMAINS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER WESTERN ZONES FRIDAY MORNING...AND MAYBE INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE WORKING ITS WAY SOUTH DOWN THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE. OTHERWISE...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY-TUESDAY... FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2- METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL. FROM FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY-MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE NYC METRO SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR-AROUND 90 DEGREES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. FOR NOW...HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO BE BELOW 90 DEGREES FRIDAY-TUESDAY...EXCEPT FOR AROUND 90 IN URBAN AREAS ON TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. FOG/STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AT OUTLYING TERMINALS ONCE AGAIN. S WINDS GENERALLY BETWEEN 5-10 KT TODAY. WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VRB THIS EVENING. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR OR BELOW POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. .FRIDAY..CHANCE OF MVFR STRATUS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT. .SATURDAY-MONDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... WIND WAS NEAR CALM ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS AS A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/SCA LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE FORECAST WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS IS FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR EAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS UP TO 5-6 FT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FT POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SATURDAY. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO BELOW SCA LEVELS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS BY SATURDAY MORNING...AND TO LESS THAN 10 KT BY LATE SATURDAY. WINDS OF LESS THAN KT SHOULD THEN CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. FOR THE NON-OCEAN WATERS...GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD THEN BE 10 KT OR LESS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1/4 INCH IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GC/MALOIT/MET NEAR TERM...MET SHORT TERM...GC LONG TERM...MALOIT AVIATION...BC MARINE...GC/MALOIT/MET HYDROLOGY...GC/MALOIT/MET

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