Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 190101 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 901 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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A trough of low pressure shifts through tonight, otherwise weak high pressure will be in control through Tuesday night. A series of cold fronts then pushes through mid week. High pressure will be over the area Thursday night into Friday. An offshore low may scrape the area Saturday, followed by high pressure building north of the area later in the weekend and early next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... For this update just bumped down temps by a degree or two for the hourly databased going through the remainder of this evening and through about 2 am with cold advection upstream just a tad stronger that previously advertised. Also increased cloud cover for a portion of the area (mainly further west) for the first half of tonight. A trough of low pressures shifts offshore this evening, otherwise another trough is expected to move through late tonight. Not enough moisture with either trough for showers, so remaining dry tonight. It`ll be somewhat breezy however as we remain in between low pressure meandering over the Canadian Maritimes and high pressure trying to build in from the SW, leaving us with a relatively tight pressure gradient. Low temperatures will be near normal, mostly in the lower and middle 30s and feeling 5 to 10 degrees colder at times factoring in the wind. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Weak high pressure remains over the area during this period with a zonal flow aloft for most of the time. Continued dry, and after a mostly sunny start, clouds increase Tuesday afternoon with mid level moisture increasing with the approach of a shortwave. Still somewhat breezy on Tuesday with highs 45-50. Winds back from W to SW Tuesday night as they diminish. Low temperatures therefore not as cold as tonight. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Blustery and cool late Wed into Thu, and again Sun into Mon A piece of the polar vortex, more of a PV split per say takes shape across Southern Canada this week. This will result in our region being under the influence of this PV split and getting into cP air masses for duration of this week as a couple of cold fronts / reinforcing surface troughs pivot through the area. Blustery and cooler conditions are expected in the wake of the cold frontal passages late Wed into Thu. Some wind chills are expected to get into the upper teens and lower 20s Thu morning. A southern branch feature will attempt to merge with pacific branch energy Fri and Fr night in the SE states. This may result in enough energy getting bundled to bring low pressure into or very close to the area for the start of the weekend. However, there is a good share of the global deterministic guidance that keeps the energy more separate, and thus model solutions with the low remaining mainly offshore. Thus, leaned more towards a consensus solution regarding PoPs and thus was fairly close to the NBM with only some minor adjustments. If precip does get into the CWA this weekend the mostly likely time frame would be Fri night into the first half of Saturday from mainly the primary low off to the west. A light wintry mix is possible across far northern and interior sections, but any precip is expected to be very light. If the coastal low did get closer to the area than consensus, then the likelihood of precip would increase for the entire day Sat and Sat night, but this does not appear as likely at this point. As low pressure gets offshore later in the weekend and high pressure builds north of the area Sunday into Monday the pressure gradient should increase. This will result in blustery and cool conditions to begin next week. && .AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Low pressure will remain over the Canadian Maritimes through Tuesday. VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. WNW gusty flow for NYC terminals tonight, subsiding for some terminals overnight and then all terminals have gusty WNW winds on Tuesday, eventually becoming more westerly in the latter half of the afternoon. Winds speeds 10-15 kt tonight for NYC terminals, less than 10 kts outside of NYC terminals, increasing to near 15 kt on Tuesday. Gusts will be near 20 kt for NYC terminals tonight. Gusts near 20-25 kt forecast on Tuesday for all terminals towards late morning and through the afternoon. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Gusts could be intermittent at times tonight, could drop off for several hours. Start and end time of gusts could be 1-3 hours off on Tuesday. OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... Tuesday night: VFR. W gusts diminish. Wednesday: A brief period of MVFR possible in shwrs. Gusty W flow becoming NW aft 21Z. Thursday: VFR. Gusty NW flow. Friday: VFR with light winds thru 21Z. MVFR or lower overnight with rain. Mixed pcpn possible interior. Strengthening E winds. Saturday: MVFR or lower in the mrng, then becoming VFR with a wind shift to the W. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&& .MARINE... Winds increase a little tonight as the pressure gradient tightens over the waters. Looks like 25kt gusts will be widespread and frequent enough to add the non-ocean waters to the SCA at least for Tuesday. There could be occasional gusts to 25kt however tonight. Otherwise, SCA remains on the ocean for both winds and seas tonight and Tuesday. The advisory here is now extended through 06z Wednesday with still some gusts reaching criteria in the evening, and a westerly fetch long enough to maintain seas up to 5 ft as well. The advisory on the ocean might need to be extended even more eventually. Small craft conditions will become increasingly likely for the ocean, and for at least the western near shore zones Wednesday. All of the coastal waters should have small craft winds by Wednesday night behind a cold frontal passage. Gales are even a possibility on the ocean and the nearshore waters late Wed night and into a portion of Thursday. High pressure should build to the north with the pressure gradient weakening and the return of sub small craft conditions from west to east late Thursday and Thursday night. During Friday the winds will switch around to a more southerly direction, with small craft conditions possibly returning at some point in the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Dry conditions are expected on Tuesday with minimum relativity values averaging around 30 percent and gusts 20-25 mph. Coordination with state partners is ongoing, and it is possible that a Special Weather Statement is issued for at least southern Connecticut to address elevated fire weather concerns during Tuesday, particularly in the afternoon. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts are expected through the forecast period. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ331- 332-335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350-353- 355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/JE NEAR TERM...JC/MW SHORT TERM...JC LONG TERM...JE AVIATION...JM MARINE...JC/JE FIRE WEATHER... HYDROLOGY...JC/JE

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