Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 270530 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 130 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure builds in through this morning and remains in place for the weekend. A cold front will approach the area Sunday night and slowly move through Monday. This front will dissipate over or just south of the area on Tuesday. Another cold front moves through late Wednesday into Wednesday night with high pressure for the end of the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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High pressure continues to build in from the northwest behind a cold front just offshore. The forecast continues on track. Still expecting a mainly clear sky overnight. The low temperature forecast is a blend of guidance which was in good agreement.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... High pressure will produce fair weather. Despite the cold frontal passage, high temperatures will be several degrees above average with temperatures at 850 millibars around 16 to 17 C. Decoupling at night however may allow some of the normally coldest outlying locations to drop into the upper 50s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Models continue to be in good agreement for the the long term period. This period begins with weak surface high pressure off the New England coast Sunday. Another sunny day for Sunday although onshore flow will limit mixing...especially at the coast with slightly lower max temps. Highs across urbanized NY/NY and areas N and W should range from mid to upper 80s...with lower to mid 80s common at the coast. Aloft, a ridge will build in while an anticyclone is centered over the Mid-Atlantic states. Surface cold front approaches the area late Sunday night, and slowly moves through the region Monday as the upper level anticyclone weakens over the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast U.S. The front will be moisture starved and looks to undergo frontolysis after it moves through Monday night. Best chances for precipitation this week will be with the cold fronts moving through the area, though chances won`t be very high. The weakening cold front Monday into Tuesday will be associated with a couple of vorticity maxes and upper level trough. The cold front for Wednesday into Wednesday night is also moisture starved, so the chances for precipitation will once again not be very high. Thereafter, surface high pressure moves in through the end of the week. Temperatures through the week should average above normal with not much in the way of cold air advection behind these weak fronts. Cooler air will finally move in for Friday however, as an upper level trough sets up over the Northeast beginning Wednesday in association with upper level low developing over southeastern Canada. It will also be on the humid side through much of the week, but not oppressively so. Dew points will be in the 60s to near 70 at times, but start to decrease on Thursday after the passage of the second cold front, and continue to drop into the 50s on Friday with as dry northwesterly sets up. In fact, went a couple of degrees below guidance for Friday and Friday night in regards to dew points as the models are probably overdoing the dew points with the northwesterly set up. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VFR as high pressure builds over the terminals today. Light N-NE flow early this morning. Winds will then veer to the SE by early this afternoon around 10 kt. Timing of wind shift to the SE may be off by an hour or two. SE Winds diminish tonight to around 5 kt at city terminals and light and variable elsewhere. .Outlook for 06Z Sunday through Wednesday... .Sunday...VFR. .Monday-Wednesday...VFR. A shower or thunderstorm possible each day.
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&& .MARINE... Winds and seas will remain below small craft advisory levels through the day Monday. 5 ft seas develop over the eastern ocean zone late in the day Tuesday. The potential remains for increasing tropical swell on the ocean Sunday through at least Tuesday. As a result...seas could build to 5-6 ft from late Monday through Tuesday night. Waves come down below 5 ft for Thursday onward. && .HYDROLOGY... No significant widespread precipitation is expected through the forecast period. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC/JP NEAR TERM...JMC/JC SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...DS MARINE...JMC/JP HYDROLOGY...JMC/JP

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