Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 201935 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 235 PM EST Tue Feb 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front moves north of the area today. High pressure remains anchored over the western Atlantic through mid week as a slow moving frontal system approaches from the Mississippi Valley into Wednesday. A cold front moves across Wednesday night. A series of lows will be moving through the Northeast late this week into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Visibilities have improved across the region with many locations 2 to 3 statute miles. Local spots across southern Connecticut and Long Island were still around 1/4 mile, however, visibilities will be improving as mixing continues. Clearing was occurring with low clouds mixing out with a high cirrus deck. There remains some uncertainty as to how much clearing will occur along the coast where the inversion will be strongest from the cold ocean temperatures. Low clouds could hang on there for much of the day. An unseasonably warm air mass continues to move into the region today as a warm front moves north of the region. The warmth will be a result of an unusually strong ridge across the western Atlantic. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/... Areas of fog and patchy drizzle are expected to redevelop from SE to NW across the region tonight. Uncertainty exists in the extent/coverage of the fog, but think dense fog is a possibility. Will highlight this potential in the HWO. It will be very mild for this time of year with temperatures only falling into the upper 40s and lower 50s. The warmest day of 2018 so far is expected on Wednesday. This is when the ridge along the western Atlantic is at its strongest with heights around 595dam at its core, which is more typical of what is seen during the late spring and summer. Height anomalies across the eastern US are around 3 standard deviations above normal for this time of year as well. The day will start with fog and low clouds, but improvements should occur after sunrise with strong heating and better mixing than on Tuesday. Patchy fog and/low clouds could persist into the afternoon near the Long Island south shore and SE CT. The forecast high for Central Park is 70 degrees, which is the normal high temperature for early May! Record highs are once again expected on Wednesday with forecast readings in the middle 60s to lower 70s for most locations. Cooler temps in the upper 50s and lower 60s can be expected near the coast. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... An active weather pattern will last through the upcoming weekend. A southeast ridge will help steer a series of low pressure centers to our north, but associated warm and cold fronts will provide lift and a focus for moisture convergence around the tri-state area. While there will be chance for rain for just about every day and night period from Wednesday night through Sunday, it won`t be raining most of this time. Looks like the best overall chances occur Thursday afternoon, Friday, and Sunday. Saturday could actually end up dry for everyone, but will leave in lower-end chances for rain for now. Frozen PCPN would be possible inland Thursday night into Friday morning as an elevated layer of above-freezing temperatures coincide with low-level cold air filtering in from the northeast. Looks too warm for snow, so sleet and freezing rain would be possible. Still, PoPs are on the lower side during this period. High pressure then builds in from the west on Monday with dry weather. Temperatures through the long term will be above normal with highs mostly in the mid 40s to lower 50s && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A warm front lifts north of the terminals today as high pressure remains anchored over the western Atlantic. VFR through this evening. KGON holding on to fog, with little to no improvement expected. LIFR/VLIFR conditions likely to develop after 00Z once again. These lower conditions continue all night. S/SW winds 10-15 kt for city terminals and 5-10 kt elsewhere. S/SW winds subside to 10 kt or less this evening and continue overnight. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Amendments likely this evening for stratus/fog development. Timing may be off 1-2 hours. KLGA TAF Comments: Amendments likely this evening for stratus/fog development. Timing may be off 1-2 hours. KEWR TAF Comments: Amendments likely this evening for stratus/fog development. Timing may be off 1-2 hours. KTEB TAF Comments: Amendments likely this evening for stratus/fog development. Timing may be off 1-2 hours. KHPN TAF Comments: Amendments likely this evening for stratus/fog development. Timing may be off 1-2 hours. KISP TAF Comments: Amendments likely this evening for stratus/fog development. Timing may be off 1-2 hours. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .Wed...Gradually improving to VFR. Chance of showers with MVFR in the evening. SW wind G15-20KT possible. Winds shift to the N at night. .Thu...MVFR in rain likely. Wintry mix possible interior terminals at night. NE wind G15-20 KT possible. .Fri...CHC MVFR in rain. Wintry mix possible interior terminals. .Sat and Sun...CHC MVFR in rain.
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&& .MARINE... Visibilities have improved to 1 NM or more across the forecast waters and the dense fog advisory was allowed to expire. Otherwise, marginal SCA conditions are expected today on the ocean waters east of Fire Island Inlet. Seas should build above 5 ft tonight, so have extended the advisory until 11z Wednesday. The advisory may need to go through Wednesday, but have held off on going that far out for now. Sub-SCA conditions are expected elsewhere. There is also potential again tonight for dense fog. Seas on the ocean will subside below 5 ft Wednesday night, and this will be followed by a period of relatively tranquil conditions through Saturday with the pressure gradient over the region remaining weak most of the time. && .HYDROLOGY... Several rounds of rain are possible late this week into the upcoming weekend, but no significant hydrologic impacts are anticipated at this time. && .CLIMATE... Temperatures may approach or break record highs in a few spots Tuesday and Wednesday. Record Highs for Tuesday February 20, 2018 Location........Record/Year Newark..............70/1939 Bridgeport..........54/1991 Central Park........69/1939 LaGuardia...........63/1943 JFK.................61/1949 Islip...............62/2016 Record Min Max for Tuesday February 20, 2018 Location........Record/Year Newark..............46/1939 Bridgeport..........39/2016 Central Park........48/1939 LaGuardia...........44/2002 JFK.................46/1981 Islip...............47/1981 Record Highs for Wednesday February 21, 2018 Location........Record/Year Newark..............69/1953 Bridgeport..........59/2002 Central Park........68/1930 LaGuardia...........68/1953 JFK.................63/2002 Islip...............63/2002 Record Min Max for Wednesday February 21, 2018 Location........Record/Year Newark..............49/2002 Bridgeport..........44/2002 Central Park........50/2002 LaGuardia...........47/2002 JFK.................47/1981 Islip...............45/1996 && .EQUIPMENT... NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO-35 (162.55 MHz) is off the air for an extended period of time. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ350-353.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/DS NEAR TERM...DS/19 SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...JC AVIATION...CB MARINE...JC/DS/19 HYDROLOGY...JC/DS CLIMATE... EQUIPMENT...

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