Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 011948 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 348 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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DEEP AND MOIST SW FLOW CONTINUES AHEAD OF DEVELOPING CANADIAN CLOSED UPPER LOW AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY CLOSED UPPER LOW TONIGHT. SHOWER AND ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL OCCUR DUE TO A STRENGTHENING LLJ ADVECTING IN AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTO THE REGION OVER A SLOWLY EASTWARD DRIFTING SURFACE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. IN ADDITION...DEEP LAYER LIFT SHOULD INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND RIGHT REAR QUAD OF 70-80 KT JET STREAK TONIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ACCOMPANYING URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. SOME SMALLER STREAMS...ESPECIALLY IN NJ...COULD ALSO EXCEED BANKFULL. FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR ALL BUT EASTERN LI FOR THIS THREAT. SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW TRACKS THROUGH QUEBEC INTO NORTHERN MAINE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...THE STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH...WITH WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT...GRADUALLY GETS PUSHED FARTHER SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N/NW. A TRANSITION TO MAINLY STRATIFORM RAIN AND DECREASING PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FROM NW TO SE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS LLJ AND INSTABILITY AXIS GETS PUSHED FARTHER SE. FRONTOGENETIC/DEFORMATION BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN STILL EXPECTED WITH DEEP LIFT OF THE MOIST AIRMASS. A GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR ALL BUT EASTERN LI FOR THIS THREAT. SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION. WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...ONSHORE FLOW AND PCPN...TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY...STRUGGLING TO REACH 60 DEGREES. GRADUALLY DRYING FROM NW TO SE EXPECTED TUE AFTERNOON INTO TUE EVENING AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. CHILLY CONDITIONS FOR JUNE...WITH LOWS WILL ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUE NIGHT.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST U.S. ON WEDNESDAY...AND LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. AS A RESULT...CAN EXPECT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF EASTERLY FLOW FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. SKIES WILL BE CLOUDY...ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL AREAS...AND TEMPS WILL FALL JUST BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. WITH THE HIGH OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LOW PRES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MOVES OFFSHORE AS WELL. TEMPS WILL WARM UP BY A FEW DEGREES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK. THAT FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...AND LIKEWISE WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP ON THAT BOUNDARY AND IMPACT THE REGION WITH RAIN FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING ALONG THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LIFR/IFR CIGS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. SOME OF THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND START TO DIMINISH AFTER 16Z ON TUESDAY. E-NE WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 10-20 KT TODAY. WINDS COULD INCREASE A BIT OVERNIGHT...THEN DIMINISH DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS THEY BECOME MORE NORTHERLY. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES. AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES. AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES. AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES. AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES. AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES. AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .TUESDAY AFTERNOON...IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH RAIN. .TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. .WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR. .FRIDAY...LOW CHANCE OF SUB-VFR IN SHOWERS.
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&& .MARINE...
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A STEADY MARGINAL SCA E/NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 7 FT ON THE OCEAN. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER AND WEAKEN TUESDAY...WITH SEAS THEN GRADUALLY FALLING BELOW SCA LEVELS TUE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS THE WATERS. ONCE SEAS FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS TUE NIGHT INTO WED....HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH 00Z WED FOR ALL BUT EASTERN LI FOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING THREAT FROM ANY TRAINING HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW FLASHY STREAMS AND SMALL RIVERS...ESPECIALLY IN NE NJ...COULD EXCEED BANKFULL DUE TO THE SATURATED GROUNDS FROM RAINFALL OVER THE LAST 36 HRS. ADDITIONAL BASIN AVG QPF OF 1 TO 3 INCHES EXPECTED INTO TUE EVE BEFORE COMING TO AND END. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR CTZ005>012. NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078- 080-176>179. NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-006- 103>108. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MPS/NV NEAR TERM...MPS/NV SHORT TERM...NV LONG TERM...MPS AVIATION...BC MARINE...MPS/NV HYDROLOGY...MPS/NV

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