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000
FXUS61 KOKX 160218
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1018 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A weak cold front pushes offshore and south of the area tonight.
High pressure builds in overnight and remains through Tuesday
night. A slow moving warm front then approaches from the
southwest Wednesday into Thursday. High pressure briefly builds
in for Friday, followed by a cold front on Saturday. The front
remains not too far offshore on Sunday as high pressure tries to
build in, then high pressure strengthens more on Monday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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A weak cold front continues to slowly push south of the area.
This front will be sagging southward through the overnight as
high pressure builds in from the northwest. Any isolated
showers forming along this boundary are getting south and east
of the area now. Water vapor imagery shows the upper level
trough axis beginning to pivot through. Overall cloud cover is
little to the immediate west as cloud cover decreases quickly
from west to east for the first half of the night.

Overnight lows will still be running 5 to around 7 degrees
above normal, and used a blend of the MOS and NBM.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
High pressure remains over the region for Tuesday and Tuesday
night with temperatures again above normal by 5 to 10 degrees.
Tuesday night temperatures will be near seasonal normals.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A broad area of low pressure stretching from the western Great
Lakes to the Ohio Valley approaches on Wednesday. Moisture and
lift with an associated warm front brings chances of showers
mainly in the afternoon. Showers will be more likely starting
late in the day for western zones, and early evening for most of
the rest of the area. Upper support for the system weakens in
the vicinity of the Great Lakes later Wednesday night, and
deterministic models are still showing a weak low center
developing near the Mid-Atlantic coast with perhaps some mid
level shortwave energy. This low is still progged to remain
south of the forecast area, but close enough to keep showers
likely for most of the area through Thursday.

The low to the south doesn`t move much during Friday with an
inverted trough extending northward towards us. At the same
time, a cold front approaches from the west. Most, if not all of
the day will likely be dry, but cannot rule out an afternoon
shower. A chance of showers then follows for Friday night into
Saturday with the cold front passing through.

There`s some question regarding how far south the departing
cold front sinks during Saturday night through Sunday night.
Have therefore gone with slight chance/chance PoPs during this
period. Weak high pressure then keeps us dry on Monday.

High temperatures through the period are expected to be within
a few degrees of normal with the exception being Thursday, when
highs will be only the lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A frontal boundary slips further south overnight as high pressure
builds over the terminals on Tuesday, before pushing offshore
Tuesday night.

VFR.

Winds generally will be NNW at 5 to 10 kt overnight. The winds
become more NW into the morning and remain NW through Tuesday with
speeds closer to 10 kt, and gusts around 20 kt by late morning until
early evening. A coastal sea breeze will be possible later in the
day, with the best chance at JFK. The winds lighten and remain
mainly N Tuesday evening.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of gusts starting Tuesday may be off by an hour or two. Gusts
on Tuesday may be more occasional.

Late day S-SW sea breeze most likely at JFK on Tuesday, timing may
be off by a couple of hours with confidence in occurrence below
average.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tue night: VFR. NW gusts end in the evening, mainly light N winds.

Wed and Thu: MVFR or lower possible at times with potential for rain
showers, mostly Wed night into early Thu. E winds 10 to 15 kt with
gusts near 20 kt.

Fri: MVFR or lower possible with rain showers.

Sat: MVFR possible early with showers.


Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
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The small craft advisory on the eastern ocean has been allowed
to expire as seas generally get below 5 ft. Going forward winds
and seas will remain below advisory levels through Wednesday.
Winds increase Wednesday night as the pressure gradient tightens
in response to a broad area of low pressure approaching. SCA
conds become likely on the ocean by the end of the night, and
possibly on some of the other waters as well. Winds increase
further during Thursday as a low center develops to the south.
Once again, advisory conditions still likely on the ocean and
potentially for other spots. Winds diminish Thursday night into
Friday, however a lingering swell with on onshore flow may keep
ocean seas above 5 ft through at least Friday morning. Sub-
advisory conditions on all waters otherwise Friday afternoon
through Saturday.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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The weather is dry overnight through Tuesday night. A half inch
to inch of rainfall is expected from Wednesday afternoon
through Thursday afternoon. No hydrologic impacts are expected
with this event.
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&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/MET
NEAR TERM...JE/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...JC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/MET