-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KOKX 170814 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
414 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION TODAY...THEN STALLS OUT NEARBY
INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH OF THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
AT LEAST THIS MORNING...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH HRRR/RAP...SO
HAVE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.

A WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE - CURRENTLY OVER N IL/E IA MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COUPLED WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT SAGGING INTO THE AREA SHOULD SERVE AS THE TRIGGER FOR ISOLD-
SCT SHRA/TSTMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE COULD HAVE
1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE TO WORK WITH. NAM/SREF MORE BULLISH WITH
THIS THAN GFS/ECMWF - SO KEPT POPS TO CHANCE FOR NOW.

IN ADDITION TO THE AFOREMENTIONED CAPE...FORECAST TO HAVE 40-50 KT
OF BULK SHEAR...BUT WITH BULK RICHARDSON NUMBERS ONLY 15-25 SOME
SUGGESTION COULD HAVE TOO MUCH SHEAR IF CAPE DOES NOT DEVELOP AS
EXPECTED. OTHERWISE CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED LOW TOP SUPERCELLS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE NJ/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/INTERIOR S CT...BUT
PULSE CONVECTION MORE LIKELY. IF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DO
FORM...WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS 7500-9500 FT COULD SEE SOME
SMALL TO POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

APPEARS SHOULD HAVE AROUND 100 J/KG OF CIN NEAR THE COAST ALONG
WITH AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE...SO THREAT OF CONVECTION...YET ALONE
STRONGER STORMS THERE IS MUCH LESS THAN ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 925 HPA NEAR THE COAST TO 875 HPA
WELL INLAND. EXPECT VALUES TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INTO THIS EVENING AT
ATLANTIC BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OUT EARLY THIS EVENING WITH EXIT OF
700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE AND LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING. FOR LOWS TONIGHT
USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS FORECAST TO BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

700-500 HPA NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AXIS MOVES IN TUESDAY...AND
SHOULD ACT ON STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SCT
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE TRI-STATE. STILL SOME VARIATION ON THE MODELS
IN TERMS OF COVERAGE/STRENGTH SO KEPT POPS AT CHANCE FOR NOW.

MAIN QUESTION IS STRENGTH OF INSTABILITY. NAM HAS 1500-2500 J/KG
OF CAPE...WITH THE GFS ONLY AROUND 500 J/KG AND THE ECMWF
SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN.

THE REGION WILL ALSO BE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A 75+ KT 300
HPA JET...HAVE 40-50 KT OF BULK SHEAR...AND FAIRLY DECENT LOW
LEVEL HELICITY. SO IF THE HIGHER INSTABILITY IN THE NAM CAN BE
REALIZED...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS. IF NOT...THEN ONCE AGAIN SHOULD SEE MAINLY AIRMASS
TSTMS...WITH MAYBE AN ISOLD LOW TOPPED SUPERCELL LIKE TODAY.


FOR HIGHS TUESDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 900 HPA NEAR
THE COAST TO 825 HPA WELL INLAND...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS COMING INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH EVOLUTION OF THE
MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES FOR MIDWEEK...WITH A STRONG UPPER LOW CURLING
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA AND A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD HAVE ANY SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY
TUESDAY NIGHT WEAKENING AND GRADUALLY SINKING SE OF THE REGION.

FOR WED...MODELS ARE KEYING IN ON SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE NE US TROUGH...AND
HELPING TO INDUCE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COLD FRONT. AT
THIS POINT...IT APPEARS WE SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...BUT COULD BE ON
THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF ANY PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE. IT WILL HAVE TO
BE WATCHED. IF NOTHING ELSE...A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER AND ONSHORE
FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW WOULD HOLD TEMPS BELOW SEASONABLE
LEVELS.

THEREAFTER...MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH MEAN TROUGHING
CONTINUING OVER THE NORTHEAST...WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
BUILDING INTO THE REGION AND IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN FAIR AND SEASONABLE WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WEAK PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
COULD SET OFF ISOLATED PULSE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY EACH AFT/EVE...MAINLY
OFF THE NW HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

HEIGHTS MAY BEGIN TO BUILD THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
A TREND TOWARDS MORE SUMMER LIKE WEATHER. THIS WOULD ALSO BRING
POTENTIAL FOR MCS ACTIVITY AS THE REGION LIES ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THE WESTERLIES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE TERMINALS TONIGHT.

FOR THE NYC METRO...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND
REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT BY MORNING. AFTER SUNRISE...WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. COASTAL SEA BREEZES LIKELY ON
MONDAY.

OUTSIDE THE NYC METRO AREA...MVFR VSBY MAY BE POSSIBLE AT SOME
OUTLYING LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING.

AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TSTM POSSIBLE INLAND...IMPACTING MAINLY KSWF.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.MON NIGHT-TUE...SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT TSTMS COULD BRING MVFR
OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
.WED-FRI...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 5 FT AT 44017...SO HAVE CANCELLED THE SCA
FOR ANZ-350. WAVEWATCH RUNNING AROUND 1 FT TOO HIGH...SO ADJUSTED
DOWN A FT OR SO.

WITH A RELATIVELY LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION EXPECT
WINDS TO BE 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH TUESDAY...OUTSIDE OF AFTERNOON
SEABREEZES EACH DAY AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WAVES...EVEN WITH A
PERSISTENT 2 FT SWELL SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS ON THE OCEAN
WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY.

MARGINAL SCA SEAS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. OTHERWISE...SUB SCA
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR MID THROUGH LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE QPF FROM ANY SHRA/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
SHOULD BE LESS THAN .1 INCHES. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND 1
INCH...THE PROBABILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND HENCE ANY
SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS LOW.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 1/3-2/3 AN INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE
QPF...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION
TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF 1.25-1.5
INCHES...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. THIS COULD CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS LOW FROM
THE MIDDLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/NV
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...MALOIT/NV
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/NV