Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 151408 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1008 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRES WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE TODAY ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO PASS EARLY TUESDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... UPDATED INITIAL TEMPS AND DEW POINTS TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS WERE SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVER AND E OF THE CWA TODAY. WITH SUNRISE AND DOWNSLOPE...LOWER CLOUDS HAVE ERODED THIS MORNING. THIS LEAVES MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH TEMPS A BLEND OF THE GMOS25 AND THE MET. WINDS EVENTUALLY BECOME LGT AND VRB WITH SEA BREEZES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE CWA THIS EVE...PARTICULARLY WRN PORTIONS...THEN SHOWERS REACH THE AREA AROUND DAWN. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST BULLISH ON PCPN AMOUNTS. THE NAM IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND ECMWF...BUT OVERALL THE MODEL SOLNS ARE CONSISTENT. ENOUGH TO KEEP LIKELY POPS IN THE FCST. EVENT LOOKS LIKE MAINLY A COUPLE OF HOURS OF RAIN THEN CLEARING BEHIND THE CDFNT. LOTS OF DRY AIR BEHIND SO IT WILL LIKELY BE SUNNY BY LATE AFTN...POSSIBLY AS SOON AS NOONTIME ALONG AND W OF THE HUDSON. TEMPS AGAIN A BLEND OF GMOS25 AND THE MET. SUBSIDENCE AND NW FLOW THRU THE COLUMN SHOULD PRODUCE A FEW WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH BEHIND THE FROPA. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... MEAN TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE NATION WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK BEFORE LIFTING UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY NEXT WEEKEND. THERE ARE INDICATIONS BY THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND THE TROF WILL ONCE AGAIN REESTABLISH ITSELF BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH A W/NW FLOW ALOFT AND NLY FLOW AT THE SFC. A REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TAP WED NIGHT. AS THE HIGH BUILDS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA FRI INTO SAT THE FLOW WILL BECOME ONSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND. LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH FOLLOWED A BLEND OF WPC AND MOSGUIDE FOR TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGHS AND LOWS WILL AVERAGE 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE NEXT SUN AS AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SLY. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRES WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY WITH A SLY FLOW DEVELOPING. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT. VFR THROUGH 06Z TUE. SCT-BKN CIGS BETWEEN 4-5K THIS MORNING SHOULD DECREASE WITH HEATING AND MIXING. LIGHT N WINDS SHOULD PERSIST INTO LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SEA BREEZES AFFECT ALL BUT KSWF/KHPN/KTEB. SPEEDS...EVEN WITH THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD BE MOSTLY BELOW 10 KT. SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT. TIMING MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED 1-2 HOURS. BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDS...MAINLY CIGS MAY ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: N WINDS EXPECTED TO BACK TO THE SW AFT 16Z...THEN GIVE WAY TO SEABREEZE WITH S WINDS BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: N WINDS MAY RANGE BETWEEN 040 AND 060 AT TIMES THROUGH 18Z OR SO...THEN WINDS BECOME S-SW. UNCERTAIN IF SEABREEZE WILL REACH THE AIRFIELD. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: N WINDS BECOME VRB EARLY THIS AFTN...WITH SEABREEZE AND SE WINDS EXPECTED IN IMPACT THE AIRFIELD BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE EXPECTED BETWEEN 20Z AND 22Z. WINDS MAY BECOME SWLY AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER THAN THAT. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .TUE...MVFR POSSIBLE. SW WINDS G15-20KT BEHIND FROPA IN THE MORNING. .TUE NIGHT-FRI...VFR...N-NW G15-20KT POSSIBLE LATE WED AFTN/EVE. && .MARINE... ALTHOUGH INCREASING SWELL FROM EDOUARD WILL BE NOTED ON THE OCEAN...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS THRU TUE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE WATERS WED-FRI. AS THE HIGH PASSES TO NORTH LATE IN THE WEEK A MODERATE NE FLOW DEVELOPS. MARGINAL SCA SEAS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS DURING THIS TIME DUE TO BOTH SE SWELLS FROM DISTANT TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD AND THE STRENGTHENING E/NE FLOW AT THE END OF THE WEEK. && .HYDROLOGY... UP TO 1/2 INCH OF RAINFALL IS FCST TUE. QPF IS FROM THE RFC. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC/DW/PW NEAR TERM...JMC/JM/PW SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...DW/PW AVIATION... MARINE...DW/PW HYDROLOGY...JMC

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