Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 260016 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 816 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA INTO TUESDAY...THEN SHIFTS SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... A RATHER STRONG UPPER RIDGE WEST OF THE REGION WILL FLATTEN TONIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. PATCH OF HIGHER CLOUDS SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THE WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND WITH CLEAR SKIES RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER...A WARMER AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE AND DEW POINTS WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER SO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT. LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER MET AND ECS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED TO PATCHY FOG IN THE OUTLYING AREAS ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT...HOWEVER VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 2 STATUTE MILES SO DID NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... THE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY THEN AS YET ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA THIS SHORTWAVE WILL DIG A LITTLE DEEPER INTO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND SHIFT THE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH SOUTH. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP DURING TUESDAY AND WARMING AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN MONDAY INLAND WHILE THE SOUTH...SEA BREEZE FLOW SETTING UP EARLY TUESDAY...WILL KEEP THE COASTAL AREAS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAYS TEMPERATURES. THE MET AND ECS GUIDANCE HANDLED THIS BEST AND A BLEND WAS USED. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY HIGH THIN CLOUDS. ALSO DEW POINTS WILL BE INCREASING INTO THE MID 60S...WITH A WARM A MORE HUMID AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE REGION AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE HIGH CONTINUES. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES TUESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED SO A BLEND WAS USED. THE COLD FRONT GETS HERE LATE WED. THE NAM APPEARS A BIT FASTER THAN THE GFS AND ECMWF. AS A RESULT...THE NAM POPS SOME TSTMS OVER THE CWA. THE OTHER MODELS ARE MAINLY DRY. FCST WAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE SLOWER SOLNS...BUT LEFT CHCS IN THE FCST BECAUSE EVEN THE DRIER MODELS SHOW SOME INITIATION. HOT TEMPS ON WED WITH A MAV/MET/MEN/MEX BLEND. HIPRES BUILDS IN THU-FRI. DRY FCST WITH TEMPS COOLER. A BLEND OF THE GMOS25/MEN/MEX WAS USED. WARM FRONT USHERS IN A MORE HUMID AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS SEEM TO BE STARTING TO BACK OFF ON PCPN CHCS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE E. WILL EXPECT PERHAPS SOME ISOLD SHWRS/TSTMS FRI NGT WITH THE INITIAL WAA ALOFT...THEN WITH THE AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR IT COULD REMAIN DRY MOST OF SAT AND SUN. WHEN THE UPR RIDGE BREAKS DOWN LOC HVY SHWRS AND TSTMS POSSIBLE. PW/S INCREASE TO OVER 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THE TIMING OF THIS PRELIMINARILY LOOKS LIKE SUN NGT OR MON. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL DRIFT S OF THE AREA ON TUE. MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY EXCEPTION IS THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG AT RURAL TERMINALS. CONDS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...SO HAVE MAINTAINED THE INCLUSION OF MVFR AT KSWF...ALTHOUGH THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDS. HOWEVER...HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS OCCURRING. SEABREEZE BOUNDARY STALLED BETWEEN KJFK AND KLGA LATE THIS AFTN...BUT HAS NOW STARTED MOVING N AGAIN. ITS TIMED TO GET TO KLGA AROUND 03Z...BUT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE MINIMAL (LESS THAN 5 KT) BY THEN. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUE AT COASTAL CT AND INTERIOR TERMINALS. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE EXPECTED AGAIN TUE AFTN. TIMING IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE EXPECTED AGAIN TUE AFTN. TIMING IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE POSSIBLE TUE AFTN. TIMING IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 20 AND 22Z AND DIRECTIONS COULD SHIFT 10-20 DEGREES LEFT OF FORECAST. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE EXPECTED AGAIN TUE AFTN. TIMING IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 20Z AND 22Z AND DIRECTIONS COULD SHIFT 20-30 DEGREES RIGHT OF FORECAST. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE EXPECTED AGAIN TUE AFTN. TIMING IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z AND DIRECTIONS COULD SHIFT 20-30 DEGREES RIGHT OF FORECAST. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE EXPECTED AGAIN TUE AFTN. TIMING IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z AND DIRECTIONS COULD SHIFT 20-30 DEGREES RIGHT OF FORECAST. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WED THROUGH SAT... .TUE NIGHT-WED...PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDS LATE TUE NIGHT OUTSIDE OF NYC TERMINALS...OTHERWISE VFR. .WED NIGHT...VFR. CHC -SHRA DURING EVE WITH COLD FROPA. .THU-SAT...VFR. && .MARINE... SUB SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. SEAS WILL BUILDS TO SCA LVLS WED ON THE OCEAN DUE TO SWELL FROM THE TROPICS. THIS SWELL WILL LINGER THRU THU AND PERHAPS INTO FRI. A QUICK BOUT OF SCA WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WED NGT. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE BLW SCA LVLS THRU FRI. WINDS INCREASE FROM THE S AND SEAS RESPOND OVER THE WEEKEND. SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. && .HYDROLOGY... NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED WED-FRI. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC/MET NEAR TERM...MET/PW SHORT TERM...MET LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...24 MARINE...JMC/MET/PW HYDROLOGY...JMC/MET

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