Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 291744 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 144 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE VERY MILD DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE NORTHEAST DURING MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOL HIGH PRESSURE FOR SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AS CURRENTLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY PERSIST. NWP 200-300 HPA MOISTURE FIELDS SUPPORT THE CIRRUS REMAINING OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. DESPITE THE BKN-OVC CIRRUS...STILL A PARTLY TO OCCASIONALLY MOSTLY SUNNY DAY AS THE CIRRUS THINS OUT AT TIMES. HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES SEEN ON KOKX RADAR LATE THIS AM ARE NON- METEOROLOGICAL PER DUAL-POL CC DATA. THEY ARE IN ALL LIKELIHOOD BIRDS AS THESE REFLECTIVITIES CAN BE TRACED BACK TO NEAR OLD LYME RIGHT AS THEY TOOK OFF AROUND SUNRISE. UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S ON THE HIGH TEMPS - ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL - BUT SHY OF THE RECORDS BY A FEW DEGREES (PERHAPS CLOSE TO A TIE OF 80F AT KISP). && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC EARLY THIS MORNING SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. SMALL SPREAD IN THE DETAILS OF THIS FEATURE AS SEEN IN THE 21Z SREF AND THE THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS...THOUGH THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE FASTER THAN THE REST. NORTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW THAT SETS UP BEHIND THE FRONT SUPPORTS LOW POPS TOWARDS MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS COULD BE MORE OF AN OCCASIONAL SPRINKLE RATHER THAN MEASURABLE LIGHT RAIN. TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL ON TUESDAY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... 00Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUING WITH THE TREND OF GENERALLY DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE UNSETTLED WEATHER MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER. THE PCPN RETURNS WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRI-SAT. AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US COAST TRACKS TO THE NORTH AND EAST...WELL OFFSHORE MIDWEEK. QUESTION IN PREVIOUS RUNS HAD BEEN FOCUSED ON HOW CLOSELY IT TRACKS TO THE COAST AND IN TURN INTERACTS WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES SWINGING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. 00Z MODEL RUNS GENERALLY KEEPING IT WELL OFFSHORE...THOUGH LINGERING JUST CLOSE ENOUGH WHILE DEEPENING TO ENABLE POSSIBLE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...THE PCPN CHC REMAINS WITH ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE LOW TREKKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...APPROACHING THE AREA WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT. THIS...COMBINING WITH A POTENT SHORTWAVE ALOFT...IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE SHOWERS WED. TIMING STILL UNCERTAIN SO WILL HOLD AT CHC POPS...BUT CAN EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING CONFIDENCE WITH SUBSEQUENT RUNS...AND THUS INCREASING POPS LATE TUES NIGHT HEADING THROUGH THE DAY WED. ALL THE MODELS...MINUS THE 00Z NAM...SUGGEST GENERALLY LIGHT PCPN AMTS OVER THE AREA. THE NAM HAS THE STRONGEST SHORTWAVE...IN FACT EVEN FORMING A CLOSED LOW ALOFT...AND THUS PRODUCES A MUCH HIGHER AMT OVER THE AREA. BEING SUCH AN OUTLIER...AM NOT CONSIDERING AT THIS TIME. SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH WED NIGHT...WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THURSDAY. PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF BY THURS AFTN FROM WEST TO EAST...IF NOT SOONER. DRY WEATHER IN PLACE THEN THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AT THE MOMENT...HAVE PCPN MOVING IN BY FRI EVENING OVER WESTERN AREAS...SPREADING TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT AND ON INTO SAT. AN WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE FRONT ON SAT SHOULD CONTINUE THE CHC FOR PCPN SAT EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SAT...WITH THINGS FINALLY CLEARING BY SUNDAY MORNING. 00Z MODEL RUNS HAVE DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING...SO INCREASED POPS TO HIGHER END CHC. THE MAIN QUESTION IS JUST IF THE PCPN STARTS TOO EARLY...IF THE RIDGING HOLDS ON LONGER TO SLOW THE SYSTEM DOWN ANY. TEMPS THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK HOVERING RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. A STRONG SURGE OF CAA BEHIND THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND WILL DROP TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE VICINITY TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES THROUGH TOWARDS DAYBREAK TUESDAY. VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OUTSIDE OF SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES. WINDS WITH SEA BREEZES AROUND 8 KT OR LESS. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: CHANCE THAT WINDS ARE OFTEN CLOSER TO 220-190 MAGNETIC. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MOST OF THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY SEA BREEZE AT 8 KT OR LESS COULD POTENTIALLY PUSH THROUGH AS WELL. TIMING WOULD PROBABLY BE IN THE RANGE OF 20-22Z. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE LIKELY DOES NOT OCCUR. IF IT DID...IT WOULD PROBABLY OCCUR BETWEEN 20-22Z. WINDS WOULD THEN SHIFT TO 150-170 MAG DURING THAT TIME. WIND SPEED 8 KT OR LESS. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .TUE/TUE NIGHT...VFR LIKELY. CHC -SHRA E-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT. WED...CHC MVFR CIGS/VSBYS/-SHRA. E-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT. .THURSDAY...CHC MVFR MAINLY AM. E-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT. .FRIDAY...VFR. SE-S WINDS AROUND 10 KT. .SATURDAY...RAIN LIKELY. CHC MVFR OR LOWER. SW WINDS AM BCMG WNW PM. GUSTS 20-25KT POSSIBLE. && .MARINE... WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY. INCREASING WINDS TUES NIGHT-WED...WITH 25 KT GUSTS EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN WATERS BY WED MORNING. POSSIBLE SCA GUSTS OVER THE OTHER WATERS...DEPENDING ON WHERE EXACTLY THE LOW OFFSHORE SETS UP. SEAS WILL BUILD DURING THIS TIME AS WELL...WITH 5 FT SEAS POSSIBLE WED THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BRIEFING THURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...BUT EXPECTING INCREASING WINDS ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECTING GUSTS TO REMAIN LESS THAN 25 KT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON THE NON OCEAN WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN THROUGH TUESDAY. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE FAIRLY LIGHT BASIN AVG QPF FOR MID WEEK. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON THE QPF TOTALS OVER EASTERN LI AND SE CT...HOWEVER THE 00Z NAM PLACES A BULLS EYE OF HEAVIER QPF OVER THE AREA. WITH THE NAM BEING AN OUTLIER ON THE OTHER SOLUTIONS...AM NOT FORECASTING SUCH TOTALS AT THE TIME. SINCE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW LINGERING NEAR THE AREA...WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SCENARIO CHANGES TO ONE PRODUCING MORE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SEARS/TONGUE NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/TONGUE SHORT TERM...TONGUE LONG TERM...SEARS AVIATION...JC MARINE...GOODMAN/SEARS/TONGUE HYDROLOGY...SEARS/TONGUE

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