Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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986 FXUS61 KOKX 212201 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 501 PM EST Wed Feb 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A slow moving cold front will approach from the west, move through overnight, and stall to the south on Thursday. A wave of low pressure will then move across on Friday, followed by a brief respite on Saturday before a more significant frontal system moves across on Sunday. High pressure will follow for Monday through Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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Record highs have been reached at nearly all of our climatological sites. KISP has a previous record of 63 degrees achieved in 2002, but due to earlier fog and stratus has been slower to rise compared to sites farther west. It is possible that the temperature could still rise further over the next few hours, placing the record in jeopardy. New Record Event Reports (RER) have been issued as of 430-450 pm. Notably, the 78 degrees at Central Park is the highest temperature recorded in February, breaking the previous record of 75 set on February 24, 1985. Similarly, La Guardia has broken a monthly record with a temperature today of 78 degrees, breaking the previous record of 74 set on February 15, 1949. Newark reached a high of 80 degrees, breaking the previous monthly record of 76 on February 15, 1949. Temperatures are still fluctuating, so these aforementioned records are still subject to change the next few hours. Truly an incredible pattern overall, more reminiscent of August with a strong subtropical high pressure. 850 mb temperatures for this morning`s 12Z sounding smashed previous records for this time of year, and are closer to the 90th percentile values for a typical summer pattern. Furthermore, per NAEFS ensemble archives, the ridge is of record heights at all levels for this time of year. The summer-like pattern will abruptly come to an end this evening into the overnight hours as a cold front moves northwest to southeast across the area. The line of showers will weaken as it approaches the strong ridge, then sag and stall to the south of the area Thursday morning. Temperatures will return to near normal values behind the front - generally in the 30s to 40s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... A wave will move along the stalled frontal boundary, setting up a period of precipitation from late Thursday morning into Thursday evening. Much of the area will see a chilly rain, however there could be sleet mixing in for the interior as colder air comes in and is a bit deeper. NAM forecast soundings forecasting a period of sleet rather than freezing rain with lack of low-level cold air in place. The mid levels remain well above freezing from 800 mb to 700. with the NAM much warmer in the mid levels than the GFS.. As colder air filters into the region, afternoon temperatures will be 20 to 30 degrees colder than Wednesday. Daytime highs in the lower to mid 40s will likely occur in the morning, with temperatures falling into the 30s in the afternoon. Temperatures on Thursday night will be a few degrees above normal, in the upper 20s to lower 30s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... With strong high pressure passing to the north and resulting cold air damming in place, also warmer air surging in aloft, there could be some sleet and/or freezing rain Fri morning as the next in a series of waves of low pressure rides atop the anomalously strong upper ridge to the south. There could be a brief respite from precip on Saturday as this wave passes east and weak high pressure passes to the north, with skies clearing for a time across southern CT as drier air filters in. Rain chances should again increase Sat night into Sunday with the approach of a warm front in advance of low pressure moving from the Plains toward the upper Great Lakes. An associated trailing cold front should then move through Sunday night, followed by fair and slightly cooler wx Mon through Wed as high pressure builds in. Temps look to be above normal through the period, warmest during the weekend with the approach of the warm front. && .AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A cold front tonight approaches and moves across the area tonight. VFR at most terminals, except KGON, where fog and stratus continue. It may take another hour or so for KGON to show some improvement. SW around 10 kt with G15-20KT possible the rest of the afternoon for the NYC terminals and points west. Winds shift to the NW between 02z and 05z with gusts 15 to 20 kt for NYC/NJ terminals. We should remain VFR with the potential for some pockets of MVFR cigs tonight. More widespread MVFR/IFR conditions return during the morning on Thursday as the next wave of low pressure approaches from the west. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Mainly VFR the rest of the afternoon. Chance of MVFR cigs returning after 23Z. Wind shift this evening may be off by an hour or two. KLGA TAF Comments: Mainly VFR the rest of the afternoon. Chance of MVFR cigs returning after 23Z. Wind shift this evening may be off by an hour or two. KEWR TAF Comments: Mainly VFR the rest of the afternoon. Chance of MVFR cigs returning after 23Z. Wind shift this evening may be off by an hour or two. KTEB TAF Comments: Mainly VFR the rest of the afternoon. Chance of MVFR cigs returning after 23Z. Wind shift this evening may be off by an hour or two. KHPN TAF Comments: Mainly VFR the rest of the afternoon. Chance of MVFR cigs returning after 23Z. Wind shift this evening may be off by an hour or two. KISP TAF Comments: Mainly VFR the rest of the afternoon. Chance of MVFR cigs returning after 00Z. Wind shift this evening may be off by an hour or two. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .Thu...MVFR/IFR in rain likely. Rain/sleet mix for KSWF in the afternoon and chc sleet/freezing rain at night. N-NE winds G15-20KT. .Fri...MVFR/IFR in rain. Chance of morning sleet/freezing rain at KSWF. .Sat...CHC MVFR in shra. .Sun...MVFR/IFR in rain. S winds G20 KT. .Mon...VFR. && .MARINE... SCA remains in effect until Thursday morning for ocean seas generally around 5 feet east of Fire Island inlet. The cold front moves to the south tonight with seas gradually subsiding below 5 ft into Thursday morning. Sub-SCA conditions are likely Thursday morning before ocean seas build above 5 ft with gusts to 25 kt in the afternoon. These SCA conds should last into Fri morning. An approaching frontal system should also bring SCA conds to the ocean waters from Sunday into early Monday. && .HYDROLOGY... Episodes of light to moderate rainfall from Thursday through Sunday should total about an inch. Hydrologic impacts not expected. && .CLIMATE... Temperatures may approach or break record highs in a few spots Wednesday night. Record High Minimum Temperatures for Wednesday February 21, 2018 Location........Record/Year Newark..............49/2002 Bridgeport..........44/2002 Central Park........50/2002 LaGuardia...........47/2002 JFK.................47/1981 Islip...............45/1996 && .EQUIPMENT... NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO-35 (162.55 MHz) is off the air for an extended period of time. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Thursday for ANZ350-353. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CB/Goodman NEAR TERM...CB/MD SHORT TERM...CB LONG TERM...Goodman AVIATION...BC MARINE...CB/Goodman HYDROLOGY...CB/Goodman CLIMATE... EQUIPMENT...

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