Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 201831 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY Issued by National Weather Service Taunton MA 231 PM EDT Mon Mar 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A weak cold front will cross the region early Tuesday morning, followed by a stronger cold front Tuesday night. This second front will usher in much colder air Wednesday and Thursday, as Canadian high pressure builds over the region. Milder air returns later in the week, before a cold front probably sags south of the region over the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Satellite imagery shows high clouds advancing toward area from central/western NY, ahead of short wave heading east from Great Lakes. This short wave is expected to weaken as it approaches Tri State area overnight, as it runs up into upper ridge just offshore. As a result, expect increasing cloudiness tonight but little if any precipitation. Forecast soundings show pronounced dry layer at lower levels, and with little forcing (weak cold front) it will be tough to generate much in way of activity. One thing to watch, however, is possibility of some light icing across interior should there be any precipitation, since temperatures will be near freezing late tonight and early Tuesday morning. Just something to be aware of right now. Lows will fall back into the low to mid 30s, except lower 40s around NYC.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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Weak cold front heads offshore during the morning. After morning cloudiness (and perhaps a brief rain/snow shower), clearing should set in during afternoon as drier air works into region. Sunshine and westerly flow will help temperatures reach low to mid 50s Tuesday afternoon, if not a little warmer in and around NYC due to downslope flow. Stronger cold front approaches Tuesday night as upper trough rotates through eastern Great Lakes. Front should pass through close to daybreak Wednesday, but once again moisture looks to be fairly limited, so we will continue with dry forecast. Lows should drop into 20s inland and low 30s near coast.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Models and ensembles continue to advertise highly amplified pattern as upper trough heads to Maritimes Wed/Thu. Ridging tries to build in behind system Fri but there are differences in position and strength of developing trough next weekend. Canadian high pressure builds over region Wed/Thu which will result in below average temperatures. Despite March sunshine, highs should only reach 30s both days. Lows Wed night should range from teens inland to low 20s near coast. Should also be rather brisk which will send wind chills into single numbers at times, or even below zero inland. Temperatures begin to modify Fri as high moves offshore and SW flow gets underway. Then our attention turns to a backdoor front, which should drop south through area Saturday night or Sunday morning, as strong high pressure builds across Hudson Bay. We then need to keep an eye on low pressure emerging from Ohio Valley, which may end up bringing some precipitation to area Sun-Mon or keeps everything suppressed to our south. Too much uncertainty this far out to say which solution is more favored at this time.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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High pressure remains over the region through tonight, before a weak cold front moves through Tuesday morning. Northerly flow becomes more northwesterly this afternoon and tonight, then more westerly Tuesday afternoon. VFR through the TAF period. There may be brief period of MVFR ceilings Tuesday morning as cold front moves through (11z-15z) but confidence was not high enough to include in TAFs. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: High confidence in winds to the right of 310 magnetic through 21Z. KLGA TAF Comments: High confidence in winds to the right of 310 magnetic through 21Z. KEWR TAF Comments: High confidence in winds to the right of 310 magnetic through 21Z. The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud. KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. .OUTLOOK FOR 18z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .Tuesday-Friday...VFR. NW gusts 20-25 kt possible on Wednesday.
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&& .MARINE...
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SCA remains posted for ocean waters into early this evening due to leftover 5 ft seas. Winds and seas diminish tonight ahead of a weak cold front which crosses waters Tue morning. Stronger cold front passes early Wed morning, followed by increasing NW winds on waters. Gusts to 30kt are most likely but it`s certainly possible gusts reach 35-40kt, especially on ocean waters. As a result we will issue a Gale Watch for all waters, since this surge of cold is very impressive for late March and can easily lead to these higher gusts to Gale force. Winds and seas diminish once again Thu as high pressure builds over waters. SW flow gets underway Fri as high moves offshore, but winds and seas probably stay below SCA.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic problems expected through this week. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from Wednesday morning through late Wednesday night for ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350- 353-355.
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&& $$ JWD

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