Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 011456 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1056 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY...AND MOVE ACROSS TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PROVIDE DRY AND FAIR WEATHER ON SUNDAY. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE TO IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR/RAP AND NCAR WRF ENSEMBLE IS EMPHASIZING POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION MORE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WITH AT LEAST ISOLD COVERAGE...AND IN PARTICULAR ACROSS SOUTHERN CT WITH SCT COVERAGE. POP HAS BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL SO HAVE WORDED FCST TO MENTION SHOWER OR TSTM. GIVEN DRY MID LEVELS AND SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND MID LEVEL FLOW UP TO 40 KT...SHOWERS/STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL BE REINFORCED FROM TIME TO TIME AS SHORTWAVES MOVE AROUND A VORTEX OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THE FIRST OF THESE IMPULSES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE IN NRN NEW ENGLAND. MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS CONSISTENT IN INDICATING ISOLD TO WDLY SCT SHRA/TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG A THERMAL/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH DURING THE AFTN AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS EVE. ANOTHER HOT DAY IS ANTICIPATED WITH H85 TEMPS RANGING BETWEEN 14-16C. THIS SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS...LOWER 90S IN THE NY/NJ METRO AREA. HEAT INDICES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THESE VALUES DUE TO DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THIS AFTN. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN BEACHES TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH ANY SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY WEAKENING AND PUSHING E. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL THEN PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST AREA PROVIDING A FAIR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON MONDAY AS THE SECOND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA. SW FLOW AND THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WILL BRING THE HUMIDITY BACK BRIEFLY. CHC POPS MAINTAINED ACROSS THE INTERIOR MON AFTN/NIGHT. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SIMILAR BULK SHEAR TO TODAY AND BETTER UPPER SUPPORT THERE COULD BE A SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AROUND MAINLY N AND W OF NYC. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE EXIST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...BUT IT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA SOMETIME MON NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUE NIGHT WITH A LOW CHC OF POPS PRECEDING IT ON TUE. SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A STRONGER H5 TROUGH/SHORTWAVE COMB WILL PASS NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. FOR NOW...THIS LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR NORTH TO IMPACT THE CWA...SO WILL CARRY A DRY FORECAST...BUT IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN COMES THURSDAY-FRIDAY AS LOW PRES PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...BUT HEAVY RAIN AXIS IS ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES IN THE GFS AND SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND IN THE ECMWF. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THIS DEVELOPS. HOT AND HUMID CONDS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND SFC DEW POINTS WELL IN THE 60S...THEN TEMPS AND HUMIDITY LEVELS BACK OFF A BIT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY COULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED GUSTY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 22Z OR SO FROM WEST TO EAST. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KT CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. THEN GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT BY 21-22Z. DUE TO GUSTY W/SW FLOW...SEA BREEZES SHOULD HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING PROGRESS INLAND...BUT WILL MONITOR. WINDS LIGHTEN BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING AS THEY TURN TO THE NW BEFORE BECOMING VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUN THROUGH WED... .SUN...VFR. SW/S FLOW. .MON...GUSTY S FLOW. A CHC OF TSTMS. .MON NIGHT-TUE...CHC TSTMS. COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH S WIND...SHIFTING TO W. .WED...VFR. W FLOW. && .MARINE... A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. ON THE OCEAN WATERS...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SPEEDS WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT OF 25 KT. SEAS EAST OF FIRE ISLAND LOOK TO BUILD TO 5 OR 6 FEET. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE SCA IN EFFECT FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT UNTIL 4Z. THERE IS A CHANCE THE FAR EASTERN OCEAN WATERS MAY NEED A FEW EXTRA HOURS ADDED TO THE END TIME...HOWEVER WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT RE- EVALUATE THE NEW 12Z DATA. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. A TIGHT SW GRADIENT MAY RESULT IN 4 FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS ON SUNDAY...THEN GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR MONDAY. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK...RESULTING IN OCCASIONAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN TSTMS ON MONDAY...WHICH COULD LEAD TO MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ350-353. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPS/PW NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/DS/PW SHORT TERM...DS/PW LONG TERM...MPS AVIATION...BC MARINE...MPS/PW HYDROLOGY...MPS/PW

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