Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 211814 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 214 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE DELMARVA AREA...AND THEN WILL MEANDER SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. THAT LOW TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY...THEN CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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OUTSIDE OF SOME SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEAST FROM COASTAL EASTERN NEW JERSEY INTO WESTERN LONG ISLAND...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT. POPS GRADUALLY INCREASE WEST TO EAST WITH APPROACH OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS COLDER TEMPS EXIST ALOFT PRESENTING STEEPER LAPSE RATES. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST DATABASE BEYOND TWEAKING TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA. DEEP UPPER TROUGH WITH SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVES DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AREA. MEANWHILE...SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE DELMARVA AREA AND SLOWLY TRACKS TOWARDS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER WESTERN ZONES AND AREAS CLOSER TO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MILD...TOPPING OFF IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70. TEMPS COULD BE A BIT WARMER IF PARTS OF THE CWA BECOME DRY SLOTTED AND SKIES BREAK UP MORE THAN FORECAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TONIGHT...BUT RAIN BECOMES LIKELY OVER WESTERN ZONES AS THE LOW DEEPENS. RAIN THEN CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE DELMARVA...AND BECOMES A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW. WILL BUMP UP POPS TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL ON WEDNESDAY AS THAT LOW MEANDERS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. MUCH COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... STACKED LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD LATE THIS WEEK. SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA DIVES SOUTHEAST AND MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. SOME DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED WITH THE STRENGTH OF THIS SHORTWAVE. UPSTREAM PACIFIC NW SHORTWAVE WILL KICK OUT EASTERN TROUGH...RESULTING IN RIDGING BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...SOME MODEL PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES NOTED WITH REGARD TO THE SFC LOW PRESSURE. GENERALLY EXPECT SFC LOW JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WED NIGHT TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK THURSDAY. THE LOW WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE RAIN WED NIGHT...WITH LOW CATEGORICAL POPS OR LIKELY POPS INTO THURSDAY AS THE STACKED LOW IS SLOW TO MOVE OUT. BANDED PRECIP LIKELY...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL MEASURABLE QPF MOST LOCATIONS. SOME SFC BASED INSTABILITY IS NOTED CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...OR EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY PER NAM/GFS. WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY IS PROGGED BY THESE MODELS AS WELL. CANNOT RULE THUNDER...BUT THIS SHOULD BE TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION. DRY WEATHER EVENTUALLY RETURNS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM DEPARTS. DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL THURSDAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN. THEREAFTER...TEMPS LIKELY REBOUND CLOSER TO...IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. SUNDAY COULD BE THE COOLEST DAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHILE TEMPS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO WARM ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK IN SW FLOW. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE VICINITY TODAY AND TONIGHT. MOSTLY VFR INTO THIS EVENING. TIMING OF MVFR CIGS AND PREVAILING -SHRA COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS. SHRA/TSTM COULD PASS THROUGH AT ANY TERMINAL AT ANY GIVEN TIME TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT ANY TSTM ACTIVITY TOO SPARSE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. ESE WINDS AROUND 10KT...BACKING TO NE THIS EVENING. COULD BE A FEW GUSTS 15-19KT THIS AFTN. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: VCTS POSSIBLE UNTIL 19Z. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: VCTS POSSIBLE UNTIL 19Z. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: VCTS POSSIBLE UNTIL 19Z. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: VCTS POSSIBLE UNTIL 19Z. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-19KT POSSIBLE THIS AFTN. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .WED PM THROUGH THU...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN SHRA. NLY FLOW AROUND 15-20KT. GUSTS AROUND 25KT. .FRI...VFR. NW WINDS 15-20KT. GUSTS AROUND 25 KT. .SAT...VFR. W WINDS 10-15KT. GUSTS UP TO 20KT. .SUN...MAINLY VFR. NW WINDS AROUND 15KT. GUSTS AROUND 25KT.
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&& .MARINE...
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SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 3 TO 4 FT. WINDS LIGHT AND FROM THE E-SE. MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE WATERS. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON WED...AND SCA CONDS LIKELY BY AFTERNOON. SEAS INCREASE 5 TO 6 FT WED AND WED NIGHT. A GENERAL SCA FOR WED AND WED NIGHT ACROSS THE OCEAN ZONES REMAINS IN EFFECT. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WED NIGHT WILL TURN TOWARD THE N/NW THURSDAY AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MAKES SLOW PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD. GUSTY NW WINDS PERSIST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE WINDS MAY BRIEFLY BACK TO THE WEST LATE SAT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. ROUGH SEA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO SATURDAY. WESTERLY FETCH THOUGH LIKELY RESULTS IN HIGHER SEAS FURTHER EAST.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... A FEW SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...WILL RESULT IN LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH ON AVERAGE THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN INCREASES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH QPF LIKELY. LOCALIZED NUISANCE URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. PERIODS OF RAIN...BRIEFLY HEAVY IN SPOTS...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED NUISANCE URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY. STORM TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES PER ANALYSIS OF OPERATIONAL MODELS...AND SREF MEMBERS. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN SHOULD NOT RESULT IN ANY SERIOUS LIFE THREATENING OR PROPERTY FLOODING ISSUES/CONCERNS. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPS/PW NEAR TERM...JM/MPS/PW SHORT TERM...MPS LONG TERM...PW AVIATION...JC MARINE...JM/MPS/PW HYDROLOGY...MPS/PW

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