Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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805
FXUS61 KOKX 172347
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
747 PM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build north of the region through the
beginning of the week. Meanwhile, tropical cyclone Jose will
lift northward in the Western Atlantic waters through the middle
of the week, with the potential for it to come close to the
region. Please refer to National Hurricane Center products for
more details on Jose. By late week, high pressure builds across
the area once again.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Fog has started to develop and has been expanded in the fcst
based on obs and the latest NARRE, which puts probs for
widespread dense at approximately 60-70 percent. Will monitor
trends the next few hours, but a dense fog advy may be needed
especially ern LI and CT.

Ridge of high pressure remains in place tonight. Main issue
tonight will be the return of stratus and fog, which is expected
to re-develop after dark. Winds should remain fairly light,
however, there may be just enough of a wind speed to prevent fog
from becoming dense. Lows tonight fall into the 60s.

A high risk of rip currents continues across Atlantic beaches
today. A high surf advisory remains in effect.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Low clouds and fog burn off/lift mid to late Monday morning,
with partial sunshine returning by afternoon. While it should be
a fairly dry day, can not rule out a few isolated showers is
possible. Temperatures Monday climb into the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
All attention continues on Jose during this period. Operational
and ensemble model guidance coming into better agreement on
lifting Jose northward through Tuesday morning, but still some
differences remain in speed, track, and intensity during the
eastward curving process near the 40/70 lat/lon benchmark Tuesday
Night/Wed period. Some subtle westward shifts have been noted
in the 12z guidance from the 00z guidance last night, with
expectation the storm tracks south and east of Long Island
passing anywhere from 80-100 miles from Montauk Point. Please
continue to monitor NHC forecasts for official information about
tropical cyclone Jose, at http:/hurricanes.gov.

Confidence in a period of tropical storm winds and heavy rain is
increasing for LI/CT during the Tuesday into Wed period. The
exact track of Jose will affect the intensity of winds, rain,
and coastal impacts for the region during this time period.

High confidence for Jose to bring increasingly dangerous surf,
widespread dune erosion (waves hitting base of dunes), and localized
washovers (wave overtopping dunes) into middle of next week.

Potential for minor to moderate coastal flooding is increasing
with the greatest impacts during the late Tuesday - Wednesday
timeframe. See the tides and coastal flooding section for
additional details.

Rainfall amounts are expected to range between 1 and 3 inches,
with the highest amounts across Eastern long Island and eastern
CT.

The NWS will continue to monitor the progression of Jose closely.
Please stay tuned for subsequent updates.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A broad area of high pres will remain over the region thru Mon.

Stratus and fog have begun to expand across the area, and will
continue to do so overnight. Airport mins possible from roughly
kisp-kgon.

The vis improves aft 12z, with cigs slowly thereafter. A window
of vfr possible in the aftn, then cigs drop to ifr or lower
again Mon ngt.

Light se flow tngt backing to the e Mon around 10kt. Winds back
further to the ne aft 00z Mon and increase thru the ngt.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.Monday Night...IFR possible with increasing ne winds.
.Tuesday...Mainly MVFR in showers. Gusty NE winds possible,
watching Jose as it approaches from the south.
.Wednesday...Any MVFR conditions improve to VFR. Gusty N winds
possible as Jose passes south and east of the area.
.Thursday...VFR.
.Friday...VFR likely.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA for hazardous seas remains through Monday due to swells
from Jose. Winds will remain on the light side through this
period.

As Jose lifts north through the Western Atlantic Monday night
into Tuesday, seas on the ocean waters will likely build into
the 10 to 15 ft range and could reach 15 to 20 ft by Tuesday.
Seas near the entrance to eastern LI Sound from the ocean will
also become rough and could approach the 7 to 10 ft range.

Winds could start reaching SCA levels Mon night, and then gale
force by Tue morning as the pressure gradient tightens between
Jose and high pressure over the Northeast. The conditions could
extend well into Wed. The timing and hazards on the coastal
waters will all depend on the strength and track of Jose.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrologic impacts are expected through Monday.

Any hydrologic impacts from developing tropical cyclone Jose
depend largely on forecast track and intensity. Please continue
to monitor NHC and WPC forecasts for official information about
Jose via: http:/hurricanes.gov and http:/www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tides will rise through the middle of the week
with the approach of a new moon. These rising water levels
combined with incoming energetic swells building from Jose, will
bring increasingly dangerous surf of potentially 12-16 ft by
Tuesday into Wed. This will cause widespread dune erosion (waves
hitting base of dunes), and localized washovers (wave overtopping
dunes) into middle of next week.

Minor to moderate coastal flooding potential is increasing with
the greatest impacts during the late Tuesday - Wednesday
timeframe. With uncertainty in track, speed, location in the day
3-4 period, have leaned towards the higher end of Stevens and
P-ETSS guidance envelope for surge forecasts. This points to
potential for 2 to 3 ft of surge during the late Tue into Wed
high tides, which would result in widespread minor to moderate
coastal flooding. These surge values could result in 2 to 3 ft
inundation in our most vulnerable locations along the southern
bays of southern LI/NYC and Peconic/Gardiners Bay, with
generally 1 to 2 ft across other vulnerable coastal areas. Wave
action on top of elevated waters levels could exacerbate impacts
along the immediate shoreline.

As confidence increases in storm details over the next 24
hours, we will be able to refine these surge value and and
potential coastal flood hazards/impacts.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Tropical Storm Watch for CTZ007>012.
NY...Tropical Storm Watch for NYZ071-078>081-177-179.
     Coastal Flood Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday
     afternoon for NYZ074-075-178.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
     High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for NYZ075-178.
NJ...Coastal Flood Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday
     afternoon for NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...Tropical Storm Watch for ANZ330-335-340-345-350-353-355.
&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC
NEAR TERM...BC/JMC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...BC
HYDROLOGY...BC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



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