000
FXUS61 KOKX 150242
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1042 PM EDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION STARTING ON SUNDAY AND WILL IMPACT
THE AREA INTO THE NEW WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
STLT INDICATES THAT SKIES ARE RAPIDLY CLEARING...AND RADAR SHOWS
CONVECTION IS DISINTEGRATING WITH THE LOSS OF SFC HEATING. STRAY
SHRA OVER THE LITCHFIELD HILLS APPEARS IT WILL FALL APART BY THE
TIME IT REACHES THE CWA PER RADAR TRENDS. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT THE
FCST DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NGT.

WEAK CAA AND DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND.
ELSEWHERE...LOWS WILL BE AROUND 60 IN/AROUND NYC AND IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.

THERE IS A MDT RIP RISK ON SAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR AND DRY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRES OVER
THE AREA. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY MORNING...AND THEN THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE NAM AND THE GFS WITH REGARDS TO THE
SYSTEM ON SUNDAY. THE NAM HAS THE PARENT LOW TRACKING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA WITH SOME BAGGINESS IN THE PRESSURE FIELDS DOWN
INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. THE GFS...ON THE OTHER HAND...HAS THE
PARENT LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA WITH A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING
EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES...AND THAT SECONDARY LOW MOVES INTO THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND CT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS FASTER AND
A BIT MORE POTENT AS COMPARED TO THE NAM. BOTH MODELS HAVE SOME
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES.

EITHER WAY...WILL GO AHEAD AND BUMP UP POPS TO HIGH-END CHANCE
ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN CT...AS THE MAIN
ENERGY SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE REGION...AND WILL CARRY LOW-END
CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TAPER OFF IN
THE EVENING AS THIS SYSTEM...WHETHER IT IS A CLOSED LOW OR AN OPEN
TROUGH AT THAT POINT...DEPARTS.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND THE SEASONAL AVERAGE ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY...TOPPING OFF IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN
OUTLYING AREAS TO AROUND 60 IN THE CITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE SITUATED JUST NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LIFTING A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH TOWARDS THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
MONDAY AND APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL MOVE ACROSS
TUESDAY. MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS THEREAFTER.

AT THE SURFACE...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY WITH A
WEAK LOW FORMING AHEAD OF IT TO OUR SOUTHWEST. THE FRONT MOVES IN ON
TUESDAY...EXITING THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
THEREAFTER FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

CONCERNING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...CHANCES WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. CHANCES INCREASE
FURTHER LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND ON TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS. CHANCES DROP OFF TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM.

WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW DEVELOPING
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA AND WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WEAK
FLOW TO START WILL ALLOW FOR QUICK DAYTIME HEATING AND RESULTING SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION BY AFTERNOON WITH THE AID OF SYNOPTIC FLOW AS
WELL. EVEN WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ACROSS LONG ISLAND WITH THE
ONSHORE FLOW...850 MB TEMPS BETWEEN 14-15 DEGREES C SHOULD ALLOW FOR
A WARM DAY WITH ADIABATIC MIXING UP TO AROUND 800 MB WITH SFC HIGH
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S FOR WESTERN LOCATIONS AND UPPER 70S FOR MUCH
ELSEWHERE...WHICH WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
BUT A FEW DEGREES ON THE COOLER SIDE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION ON NORTHERLY FLOW AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LIGHT WINDS.

GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE SEEMS TO BE ISOLATED ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF AND CMC. THE GFS IS DEPICTING MORE QPF FOR THE REGION TUESDAY
AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT AND MEANWHILE THE ECMWF AND CMC ARE
SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER MOVING IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE ECMWF AND CMC SHOW A QUICKER PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WENT BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR THE FORECAST BUT
DID NOT WANT TO DISCOUNT IN ENTIRETY THE GFS CONSIDERING THE
OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. FEW TO SCATTERED CU CLOUDS
EXPECTED SATURDAY.

WINDS OVERNIGHT REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE WEST/NW.

NW WINDS...MAINLY TO THE RIGHT OF 300 DEGREES TRUE...PREVAIL SAT
MORNING...THEN SHOULD SHIFT TO BACK TO THE WEST...WITH POSSIBLE
SEA BREEZES AT KJFK AND AIRPORTS TO THE EAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY MORNING...VFR.
.SUNDAY AFTERNOON-MON...A WEAK LOW PASSING OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL BRING SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS.
.MON NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
.TUE-WED...MAINLY VFR...HOWEVER ANOTHER LOW MAY APPROACH AND BRING
MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS/TSTMS. STAY TUNED.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA SEAS WILL STAY UP ON THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN OCEAN WATERS
UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS BLW SCA LVLS TNGT.

TRANQUIL CONDS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER
THE REGION. WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHES ON SUNDAY...AND CONDS MAY
BRIEFLY BUILD CLOSE TO ADVISORY CONDS ON THE OCEAN WATERS.

A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FETCH AND RESIDUAL
SWELL BEHIND THE FRONT AFTER IT MOVES THROUGH IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO 5 TO
7 FT WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE WEDNESDAY. WINDS
LOOK MORE MARGINAL...WITH GUSTS EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 25 KT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/MPS
NEAR TERM...JMC/MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JMC/JM/MPS
HYDROLOGY...MPS