-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KOKX 182011
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
411 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE TRI STATE AREA
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND REMAINS IN CONTROL
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON
SATURDAY...STALLING OVER OR NEAR THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AS A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS PRESENT OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. ALOFT...A
SHORTWAVE IS APPROACHING WITH THE OUR CWA NEAR THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. THESE CONDITIONS HAVE COMBINED
TO DEVELOP SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE MAIN THREATS
FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY LEAD TO
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. IN ADDITION...STRONGEST STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS.

AS THE FRONT AND SHOWERS/TSTMS CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH...THERE SHOULD
BE A WEAKENING TREND AS THE STORMS ENCOUNTER MORE OF AN MARINE
INFLUENCE NEAR THE COAST. INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE DECREASING THIS
EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...FROM RAIN COOLED AIR...AND
THE FRONT SHIFTING OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. THE BEST LIFT WILL ALSO BE
SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES
TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...TRENDED POPS DOWNWARD FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. LEFT THE MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE GRIDS THROUGH 03Z AND
JUST SLIGHT/CHC SHOWERS THROUGH 08Z.

GUIDANCE WAS VERY CLOSE WITH LOW TEMPERATURES AND SEE NO REASON TO
GO AGAINST IT AT THIS TIME. LOWS IN THE MID 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR
TO LOWER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY AS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES FILTERS
INTO THE REGION. EXPECTING DEW POINTS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 70S. MAY SEE SEA BREEZES DEVELOP AT THE COAST IN THE
AFTERNOON.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE
OBSERVED SO FORECASTING LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AND MIDDLE 50S ACROSS LONG ISLAND. FOR NEW YORK
CITY...LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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GLOBAL MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN
DURING THE LONG TERM SIGNIFYING A MEAN TROUGH GRADUALLY GIVING
WAY TO RISING HEIGHTS.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC ON THU
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC INTO SAT WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. MODELS ARE
HINTING AT ISOLD CONVECTION FRI AFTN/EARLY EVE...BUT AM HAVING A
HARD TIME FINDING A TRIGGER AND SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING A MID
LEVEL CAP SO HAVE REMOVED SCHC POPS. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE N ON SAT...ALTHOUGH EC HAS A MORE DEFINED
SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND IS THEREFORE MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE
GFS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL NEAR OR OVER THE LOCAL AREA
SAT NIGHT INTO TUE. THE POTENTIAL FOR MCS/MCC`S EXIST IF THE THE
OPERATIONAL EC SOLN IS REALIZED AS WE WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE NORTHERN JET.

AS FOR TEMPS...A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING
RESULTING IN MORE SUMMER LIKE WEATHER.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
TO NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. THE LOW MOVES WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY.

VFR. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 01Z. THE
CONVECTION WILL BE SCATTERED AND ANY STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY
RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KT. BRIEF MARGINAL VFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS.

SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO TO AROUND 20 KT WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT FROM AROUND 10Z TO 15Z. NORTHERLY WIND
CONTINUES DURING WEDNESDAY INCREASING TO AROUND 12KT.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY 21Z TO 00Z...AMENDMENTS
POSSIBLE FOR MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN A HEAVIER STORM. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF GUSTY WIND AND SMALL HAIL WITH ANY OF THE STORMS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY 21Z TO 00Z...AMENDMENTS
POSSIBLE FOR MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN A HEAVIER STORM. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF GUSTY WIND AND SMALL HAIL WITH ANY OF THE STORMS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY 21Z TO 00Z...AMENDMENTS
POSSIBLE FOR MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN A HEAVIER STORM. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF GUSTY WIND AND SMALL HAIL WITH ANY OF THE STORMS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY 21Z TO 00Z...AMENDMENTS
POSSIBLE FOR MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN A HEAVIER STORM. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF GUSTY WIND AND SMALL HAIL WITH ANY OF THE STORMS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY 20Z TO 23Z...AMENDMENTS
POSSIBLE FOR MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN A HEAVIER STORM. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF GUSTY WIND AND SMALL HAIL WITH ANY OF THE STORMS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY 22Z TO 01Z...AMENDMENTS
POSSIBLE FOR MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN A HEAVIER STORM.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...VFR.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
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WINDS WILL STAY AT OR BELOW 10 KT TONIGHT OVER THE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...SO MAY SEE
WINDS ON THE OCEAN GUST UP TO 20 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  WINDS
SHOULD SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL
REMAIN UNDER SCA CRITERIA. WINDS AND SEAS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO A HALF INCH OF BASIN AVERAGED
RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH CONVECTION. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION WHICH COULD CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...24/DS/NV
HYDROLOGY...24/DS