Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 011947 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 347 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THIS EVENING...AND MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND REMAIN THROUGH TUESDAY AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASS TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE IN TANDEM WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS FIRING SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND NE PA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD ESE TOWARD THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA LATE IN THE DAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING. STRONGER CELLS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL. ELSEWHERE...SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE EAST IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. KEPT IN ISOLD POP UNTIL FROPA. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM NEAR 70 IN MIDTOWN NYC...TO THE 60S MOST ELSEWHERE...TO SOME UPPER 50S IN THE VALLEYS OF ORANGE COUNTY AND IN THE LONG ISLAND PINE BARRENS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... THE COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL NOT TOO FAR OFF TO THE SOUTH ON THU. EXPECT DRY CONDS FOR THE MOST PART...THOUGH WITH AREA IN RIGHT REAR QUAD OF UPPER JET EXPECT PLENTY OF HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND. ENOUGH LATE DAY INSTABILITY MAY ALSO BUILD FOR A LATE DAY SHOWER/TSTM IN/NEAR NE NJ. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...LOWER AND MID 80S. FLOW WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. ONCE THE UPPER JET PASSES TO THE EAST LATE THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD START TO BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WITH N-NE FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AS A RESULT LOWS WILL BE A COOLER LOWER/MID 60S IN MOST PLACES...AND 55-60 ACROSS THE INTERIOR. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH. THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE ONE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MAY REACH LONG ISLAND. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND AS THE WAVE PASSES. ANOTHER WAVE PASSES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION THIS WAVE WILL BE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA. TUESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY WILL BE POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE AT THIS TIME. WEDNESDAY A STRONGER SHORTWAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY EVENING...MAINLY NW OF NYC TERMINALS...BUT COVERAGE IS FORECAST TO BE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. WINDS REMAIN SW AND GUSTY THROUGH 23-00Z. THE WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SOUTH WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE SW BY 23- 00Z...BUT TIMING COULD BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: FREQUENT GUSTS EXPECTED THROUGH 23Z. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: FREQUENT GUSTS EXPECTED THROUGH 23Z. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: FREQUENT GUSTS EXPECTED THROUGH 22 OR 23Z. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .THU AFTERNOON-THU NIGHT...VFR WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES LIKELY. .FRI...VFR WITH WINDS VEERING FROM THE NE TO THE ESE. SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE. .FRI NIGHT-SAT...LOW PRES WILL TRACK S OF THE REGION. IF THE LOW IS CLOSE ENOUGH...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH -RA. WINDS GENERALLY NE OR E. .SAT NIGHT-MON...VFR. && .MARINE... COMBO OF 2-3 FT SWELL AND S-SW FLOW JUST OVER 15 KT...MAINLY OUT EAST...SHOULD STILL PRODUCE COMBINED SEAS UP TO 5 FT E OF MORICHES INLET. SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS CONTINUES THERE AND HAS BEEN CANCELED FARTHER WEST. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS THU THROUGH MON. GENERALLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE WATERS...WITH ONE LOW PASSING TO THE SOUTH FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...AND ANOTHER LOW PASSING SOUTH SLOWLY FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON. && .HYDROLOGY... ISOLATED DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...MAINLY WELL INLAND. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... WITH FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2 FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED AT THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MET NEAR TERM...GOODMAN SHORT TERM...GOODMAN LONG TERM...MET AVIATION...PW MARINE...GOODMAN/MET HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MET TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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