-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KOKX 182031
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
431 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY. THE
FRONT THEN REMAINS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEK...QUITE POSSIBLY PASSING SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY
AND THEN BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE OCCURS LATE IN THE WEEK OR EARLY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT. SKIES ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY/OVERCAST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. THINKING THAT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY...HOWEVER
WITH SHOWERS ALREADY FALLING OVER THE REGION AND SOME GUIDANCE
HINTING THIS SHOWERS COULD STILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 50S...WITH THE WARMEST SPOTS IN
AND AROUND THE NYC METRO AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY WITH AN INCREASING THREAT
OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. WILL STILL LIMIT POPS TO JUST CHANCE
AT THIS TIME...DUE TO THE DIFFICULTY IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY.

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES ALONG THE WARM FRONT. WOULD EXPECT LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP.

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DUE TO CLOUD
COVER. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S. SUNDAY
NIGHT...LOWS WILL BE MILD WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY FALLING INTO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PREDICTABILITY ISSUES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD HAVE TO DO WITH THE
INTERACTION OF EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGHING AND CENTRAL US TROUGHING
THIS WEEK. THE INTERACTION OF THESE TWO ENERGIES WILL DETERMINE THE
MAGNITUDE OF EAST COAST RIDGING FOR THE MIDWEEK. MODELS SIGNALING A
RETURN TO EAST COAST TROUGHING FOR THE WEEKEND AS EAST COAST RIDGING
BUILDS OFFSHORE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A SPLIT UPPER FLOW ON MONDAY...WITH
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY...TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. THE RESULTANT S/SW
FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING...IF NOT
SOONER. WITH SURGE OF A MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE MON MORNING. THEN ONCE IN THE
WARM SECTOR MON AFTERNOON...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE FORCING/THERMAL
TROUGHING.

ON TUESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WORKING INTO THE REGION. 12Z
GFS PUSHES A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE HOLDS OFF ON THIS TILL LATE
DAY/NIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND WIND FIELDS PRESENT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION AHEAD/ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD
CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH INDICATIONS OF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING EAST ALONG THE SAGGING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MOISTURE POOLING
AND STEERING FLOW PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WOULD PRESENT A
FLASH FLOOD THREAT IF THIS PATTERN MATERIALIZED.

THEN FOR THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD THE INTERACTION OF THE EARLIER
MENTIONED UPPER FEATURES WILL BE CRITICAL TO THE LOCATION OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS CONVERGED ON THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY. IF THE FRONT DOES PASS
SOUTH...ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUDS WOULD LIKELY DROP MAX TEMPS TO
SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR WED...SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER THEN FORECASTED ON WED.

REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE WARM FRONT ENDS UP...IF THIS BOUNDARY
REMAINS CLOSE TO THE REGION...SHORTWAVES AT THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
WESTERLIES MAY ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES TO FORM AND TRACK WEST
TO EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD. ANY
MCS WOULD BRING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK...MODELS ARE SIGNALING VARYING DEGREES OF
PHASING OF THE MIDWEST UPPER TROUGH AND EASTERN CANADIAN UPPER
TROUGH. THIS WILL HAVE A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION
SOMETIME FRI INTO SAT...WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FINALLY EXITING IN IT WAKE. DEGREE OF PHASING OF UPPER ENERGIES WILL
DETERMINE TIMING AND ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE A
WARM FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.

BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...NYC
METRO AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. VFR CONDS EXPECTED...BUT CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR
IN SPOTS...MAINLY WITH THE WELL ORGANIZED BAND HEADED TOWARD KHPN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

SE-S FLOW LESS THAN 10 OR LESS SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE HIGH
PULLS OFF TO THE EAST AND THE WARM FRONT GETS A LITTLE CLOSER.
LIGHT RAIN WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO ARRIVE TO THE NYC METRO
TERMINALS...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 05Z-06Z BUT MORE LIKELY CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. IFR CONDS LIKELY BY AFTERNOON. KGON WILL BE THE
EXCEPTION TO THE RULE HERE...WITH MVFR CONDS THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WED...

.SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS EXPECTED IN LIGHT
RAIN AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND STALLS JUST TO THE SOUTH AT
NIGHT. SE SFC WIND 10-15 KT...DIMINISHING AT NIGHT.

.MON...WARM FROPA...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY MID TO LATE
MORNING. SCT SHOWERS WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON.

.MON NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS LIKELY WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.

.TUE-WED...CHANCE OF MVFR OF LOWER CONDS IN SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARBY OR JUST TO THE SOUTH.

.THU...WARM FROPA WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR DURING THE MORNING...
THEN COLD FROPA WITH LATE DAY/NIGHTTIME SHOWERS/TSTMS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE WATERS CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE. THIS
WILL RESULT IN CONDITIONS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS TONIGHT.

A WARM FRONT SOUTH OF THE WATERS WILL APPROACH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY TO 5 FT. WAVEWATCH
HAS SEAS REACHING 6 FT...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...I AM THINKING IT MAY
BE A LITTLE TOO HIGH SO HAVE CAPPED SEAS AT 5 FT. WITH SEAS REACHING
5 FT...WILL BE GOING WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OCEAN
WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK NJ TO MORICHES INLET NY STARTING SUNDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR THE WATERS FROM
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK NY...THE SCA WILL START AT NOON ON
SUNDAY AND ALSO RUN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 25
KT CAN NOT BE RULED DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

SCA OCEAN SEAS ARE LIKELY BY MONDAY MORNING WITH A PERSISTENT SE
FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD MOVE
NORTH OF THE WATERS MONDAY...AND SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE WATERS
THROUGH MID WEEK...POSSIBLY SAGGING SOUTH OF THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY
AND THEN BACK NORTH ON THURSDAY.

ONCE THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH ON MONDAY A LONG FETCH SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY SWELLS...AND SHOULD KEEP OCEAN SEAS AT
SCA LEVELS INTO MID WEEK. MARGINAL SCA WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY...BUT WINDS SHOULD BE GENERALLY BELOW SCA LEVELS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EARLY TO MID WEEK PERIOD. MARGINAL SCA WINDS COULD
RETURN FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MON THROUGH
FRI...WHICH WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
THERE IS A THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING FROM ORGANIZED SHOWER
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/NV
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...GOODMAN/MET
MARINE...BC/NV
HYDROLOGY...BC/NV