Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 280210 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1010 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... ISOLATED SHOWERS STILL DOTTING THE AREA ALONG THE COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH. MINIMAL INSTABILITY STILL OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NJ COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH 06Z WITH A WEAK VORT MAX PASSING THROUGH EASTERN PA/NJ OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. LIGHT SHOWERS OVER CT WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS THEY PUSH INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS. NW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING IN COOLER...DRIER AIR SHOULD LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. TEMPS SLOW TO TAPER OFF WITH THE COOLER AIR TAKING ITS TIME TO MOVE IN SO HAVE UPPED THE TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES TO REFLECT LATEST OBS. HOWEVER...STILL ANTICIPATING FORECASTED LOWS TO OCCUR LATE TONIGHT SO WILL MAINTAIN THE OVERNIGHT LOWS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... NW FLOW WITH DRY WEATHER AND CLR SKIES. SUBSIDENCE SHOULD LIMIT CU DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY. DAYTIME TEMPS LIKELY TO BE WARMEST ALONG THE S COAST DUE TO THE DEEPER MIXING ON NW FLOW. THE MET GUIDANCE WAS CLOSEST TO THIS SCENARIO. DIURNAL SPREAD OF CLOSE TO 30 DEGREES POSSIBLE THU NGT ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS WHERE DECOUPLING OCCURS. A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COMES LATER ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY...WHEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE AREA. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...COULD PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS NYC NORTH AND WEST. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...DRY CONDITIONS RETURN AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH... DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE TERMINALS TONIGHT. WHILE MOST OF THE RAIN HAS ENDED...A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL MOVES EAST OF THE REGION AFTER 06Z. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHIFTS TO THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AROUND 10 KT. GUSTS DEVELOP UP TO 20 KT DURING THURSDAY MORNING. .OUTLOOK FOR 03Z THU THROUGH MON... .THU NIGHT-SAT...VFR. .SUN-MON...VFR. A CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH MON. && .MARINE... SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH SEAS ON THE OCEAN REMAINING ABV 5 FT THRU AT LEAST THU NGT. PEAK SEAS OF AROUND 8 FT EXPECTED THU MRNG...RESULTING IN DANGEROUS CONDITIONS AROUND AREA INLETS. OTHERWISE...A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT LATE TNGT THRU THU BEHIND THE CDFNT ON THE OCEAN. MAX WINDS TO 20 KT EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ATTM. QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS ON FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...THEN MOVES EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. SEAS INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. SEAS FALL BACK TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .HYDROLOGY... NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL RESULTING IN HYDROLOGIC ISSUES IS FORECASTED THROUGH SUNDAY. SCT CONVECTION ON MONDAY MAY PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... WIDESPREAD 4 FT WAVES AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED DURING THE DAY TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL ONLY GET WORSE THRU THU MRNG...BEFORE THE SWELL RETREATS INTO THE N ATLANTIC. AS A RESULT...A HIGH SURF ADVY REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU THU. ALTHOUGH WAVES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BLW THE 7 FT HIGH SURF CRITERIA INTO PERHAPS THE EVE...DANGEROUS RIPS WILL CONTINUE. BASED ON THE OFFSHORE SWELL...THE HIGHEST WAVES SHOULD ARRIVE THU MRNG. THE THU MRNG HIGH TIDE CYCLE IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO PRESENT THE GREATEST THREAT FOR MINOR BEACH EROSION AND WASH-OVERS. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ075-080-081- 178-179. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC/FIG NEAR TERM...JMC/SEARS SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...FIG AVIATION...BC/MET MARINE...JMC/FIG HYDROLOGY...JMC/FIG TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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