Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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534 FXUS61 KOKX 290236 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1036 PM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue to build eastward and become nearly stationary off the Mid Atlantic coast, while a warm front passes well to the north. The offshore high will dominate from Friday into Saturday before a cold front moves through on Sunday. The front may then become stationary just to the south early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Forecast is on track. Again, only minor updates needed to T/Td and Sky based on latest obs and trends. Mid and high clouds associated with a mid level vort max moves through overnight. Lows tonight should be close to or a few degrees below MOS guidance mins, with 55-60 well inland and across much of eastern Long Island, and 60-65 elsewhere. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... The pressure gradient will tighten up by afternoon as the high moves out over the Atlantic, and as a warm front out ahead of low pressure in the upper Great Lakes sets up across upstate NY and New England, S-SW winds will increase to 15-25 mph with gusts 30-35 mph, and it is quite possible that much of Long Island and southern CT could see peak wind gusts close to 40 mph late in the afternoon. Temps away from immediate south-facing shores should peak in the 80s, though if the stronger southerly flow kicks in sooner than expected, much of Long Island may not make it out of the 70s. Highs in urban NE NJ may approach 90. Dangerous rip currents are expected at the ocean beaches, particularly in the afternoon and evening. For Thu night, with the warm front well off to the north do not expect much of any precip, though eastern areas could see some mid level clouds as an area of mid level moisture and weak instability rides across. It will also be warmer and more humid than recent nights, with lows 65-70. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Bermuda high pressure will continue to usher in warmer and more humid air from Friday into Sunday. There is a chance for showers and thunderstorms each period, with the better chances during the afternoon and early evening both Saturday and Sunday. Drier and less humid conditions return on Monday with the next chance at showers and storms on Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures Friday and Saturday will be in the upper 80s with increasing humidity levels. A few 90 degree readings are also possible in the NYC metro and NE NJ. Max heat indices look to stay in the lower 90s both days at this time at these locations, with upper 80s elsewhere. Closer to the coast, onshore flow will keep highs in the lower to middle 80s. Temperatures should be a bit cooler on Sunday in the lower and middle 80s due to increasing clouds and higher coverage of showers/storms. Highs should gradually fall back closer to normal early next week. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure slowly drifts offshore tonight and Thursday. VFR. WSW-SW winds under 10 kt tonight once sea breeze influence wears off. For Thursday, VFR continues. SW winds eventually increasing to 15-20 kt with gusts mostly around 25 kt. Strongest and most southerly winds expected at KJFK and KLGA. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts, can be found at http:/ KJFK TAF Comments: Occasional gusts to 20 kt possible until 01-02z. KLGA TAF Comments: Winds could be closer to 180-190 true through 02z. KEWR TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .Thursday night...VFR. Early evening gusts around 25 kt. .Friday-Saturday morning...Mainly VFR. Chance of shra/tstm north and west Friday afternoon/evening. SW gusts 25 kt Fri pm. .Saturday afternoon-Sunday...Chance showers/thunderstorms with sub-VFR conditions. SW gusts 20-25 kt Sat pm. .Monday...VFR. && .MARINE... Quiet through Thu morning, then S-SW flow should increase and bring SCA conditions to all waters, though this may be mainly near shore across Long Island Sound. Winds may peak briefly at 35 kt across the bays late Thu afternoon, not long enough in duration to warrant a gale warning. Ocean seas should quickly respond and build to 5-6 ft Thu afternoon. Winds will diminish over the protected waters after dark on Thu, while SCA conds continue on the ocean mainly via higher seas of 5-6 ft. SCA conditions expected to continue on the ocean on Friday as a strong SW flow continues. Ocean seas may reach 4 to 6 feet on Friday, then slowly subside Friday night. A weaker pressure gradient is expected this weekend and into the beginning of next week, with quiet conditions on all waters. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts expected into the middle of next week. && .EQUIPMENT... Observations from KFRG (Farmingdale, NY) may still be sporadic due to a communication line outage. Return to full service time is still unknown. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...High Rip Current Risk from 8 AM EDT Thursday through Thursday evening for NYZ075-080-081-178-179. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon Thursday to midnight EDT Thursday night for ANZ330-335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory from noon Thursday to 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353-355. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.