Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 192308 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 708 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Tropical cyclone Jose slowly moves south and east of the area today through Wednesday night remaining in the well offshore Western Atlantic. Weak high pressure builds over the area Thursday through early next week as Jose weakens and slowly meanders to our southeast. Please refer to National Hurricane Center products for more details on Jose. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... The fcst has been updated to bring categorical rain into all but Orange county until midnight. Bands, albeit weak ones, continue to rotate wwd into the area. Hurricane Jose is slowly moving northward in the Western Atlantic well offshore. The increase in pressure gradient in the local region between this and a departing high is resulting in gusty northeast winds. With long period swells allowing surf to build, dangerous beach conditions will continue into early this evening. A high surf advisory remains in effect for Atlantic beaches. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... In the mid to upper levels, a large ridge remains over the Eastern US with the upper level jet displaced well north in Southeast Canada. To the southeast of the region, mid and upper level lows associated with Jose are shown. Going to the surface, Hurricane Jose is forecast to slowly move northeast tonight in the Western Atlantic. It is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm by Wednesday morning. It is forecast to move slowly Wednesday and Wednesday night in a more eastward direction, relatively farther offshore. Meanwhile, weak high pressure remains in Southeast Canada, building west of the region through this time period. Official track and intensity forecasts for Jose are made by the National Hurricane Center. This will keep a relatively tight pressure gradient across Eastern Long Island and Southeast Connecticut with northerly flow. The potential still will exist for tropical storm force winds across Suffolk County, particularly the twin forks for tonight and Wednesday but most winds are expected to be in the 20 to 30 mph sustained range with gusts in the 35 to 40 mph range. Some higher gusts will be possible at times. Winds are less to the north and west of Suffolk County. A gradual loosening of the pressure gradient is shown across the local region Wednesday night as Jose is forecast to move farther away and high pressure starts to build closer into the region. Winds are forecast to lower late Wednesday night as a result. In terms of rainfall, the showers are forecast to decrease in coverage tonight into Wednesday but could reemerge in the outer ocean zone well southeast of Moriches to Montauk late tonight into Wednesday with more outer rain bands and even work its way back into Eastern Long Island. Bulk of rain is forecast to fall through tonight with mainly dry conditions expected Wednesday and Wednesday night. Temperatures are expected to be warmer than normal at night, tonight and Wednesday night, with values in the mid to upper 60s. Highs Wednesday are expected to be warmer in the west and cooler to the east, a range from the lower 80s to lower 70s. With still long period swells allowing surf to build, high surf and a high risk of rip currents will continue Wednesday for Atlantic beaches. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... There is a lot of uncertainty in the long term forecast due to the uncertainty surrounding Jose`s ultimate track and strength. Stay tuned for official track and intensity forecasts regarding Jose from the National Hurricane Center. For now it appears that Jose and/or remnants will meander about 250- 300 miles to the southeast of Montauk Thursday through this weekend. This would likely keep the associated rain shield just off to the east. This combined with high pressure over the area will then likely keep us dry through the period with above-normal temperatures as heights build aloft. It still may be on the breezy side, particularly on Thursday and Friday. For Monday and Tuesday, will keep both periods dry for consistency while global models attempt to sort out the details of Jose from run to run. Rough surf will continue to be likely at least through the end of this week and may continue into early next week. && .AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Tropical cyclone Jose will continue to move north before turning to the east off the coast of southern New England on Wednesday. Showers associated with Jose will continue to move across the area this afternoon, primarily across the city and eastern terminals, before tapering off this evening. While visibilities will generally remain VFR, a brief period of MVFR visibilities is not out of the question in any heavier shower. Generally VFR ceilings at the city terminals this afternoon, although ceilings are expected to lower to MVFR again overnight. While a brief period of VFR ceilings is not out of the question at the eastern terminals late this afternoon, in general MVFR conditions are expected to prevail through the majority of the TAF period. Ceilings will gradually improve area-wide during the day on Wednesday. Gusty NE flow will continue into tonight, gradually shifting to the NNW by Wednesday morning. Gusts in the 25-30 kt range are expected through the night at the city terminals, with gusts of 30- 35 kt at eastern terminals. NNW winds then gradually decrease during the day on Wednesday. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts, can be found at: http:/ KJFK TAF Comments: Timing of decrease in ceilings back to MVFR could be off by 1-2 hours. KLGA TAF Comments: Timing of decrease in ceilings back to MVFR could be off by 1-2 hours. KEWR TAF Comments: Timing of decrease in ceilings back to MVFR could be off by 1-2 hours. KTEB TAF Comments: Timing of decrease in ceilings back to MVFR could be off by 1-2 hours. KHPN TAF Comments: Timing of decrease in ceilings back to MVFR could be off by 1-2 hours. KISP TAF Comments: Gusts could be a few kt higher than forecast. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .Wednesday afternoon...Any lingering MVFR improves to VFR. Northerly wind gusts will gradually decrease through the day. .Thursday-Friday...VFR. Gusty N winds around 20 kt east of city terminals. .Saturday-Sunday...VFR. && .MARINE... Jose lifts slowly north through the Western Atlantic, eventually moving more northeast tonight and then more east Wednesday into Wednesday night. Stay tuned to the National Hurricane Center for official track and intensity forecasts for Jose. Ocean seas in response to increasing long period swells and increasing winds are forecast to build to 12 to 18 ft into tonight and stay near that range Wednesday. Seas near the entrance to the LI Sound from the ocean will also become rough and could approach the 7 to 10 ft range tonight. In terms of winds, highest winds will be on the ocean, farther offshore where the tighter pressure gradient will be and here is where some tropical storm force winds are expected, particularly east of Fire Island Inlet. Hence, the tropical storm warning remains in effect for the ocean. The South Shore Bays and Peconic and Gardiners Bays remain in a tropical storm watch. For the Long Island Sound and NY Harbor, winds will not reach as high, with sustained winds of near 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt and occasional gusts to 35 kt. Therefore, those waters have a small craft advisory that remains in effect through Wednesday. Seas and winds trend down Wednesday night as pressure gradient slightly weakens. Uncertainty regarding winds and seas increases from Thursday through Sunday due mostly to the uncertainty of Jose`s eventual track and strength during this period. What seems more probable is that ocean seas remain at SCA levels due to a lingering swell. For now, it appears that gusts over 25 kt would be possible mainly east of moriches inlet and nearby the Race and Gardiner`s bay for Thursday and Friday before winds subside further and likely remain below advisory criteria through the weekend. Stay tuned for official track and intensity forecasts regarding Jose from the National Hurricane Center. && .HYDROLOGY... Additional rainfall amounts from Jose are expected to range from near 0.25 in and around NYC to near 1 inch across far eastern Long Island. Locally higher rainfall amounts will be possible, which could result in minor urban and poor drainage flooding, especially in any heavier rain bands. Rainfall amounts will decrease significantly north and west of New York City. Please continue to monitor NHC and WPC forecasts for official information about Jose via: http:/ and http:/ No hydrologic problems are otherwise anticipated through early next week. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Rising water levels combined with incoming energetic swells from Jose, will bring dangerous surf of 7-13 ft tonight into Wed morning. This will cause widespread dune erosion (waves hitting base of dunes), and localized washovers (wave overtopping dunes) through Wednesday. With good confidence in track of Jose 1500-200 miles to the SE of Long Island, have weighted forecast towards most likely scenario. This points to potential for 1 1/2 to 2 ft...locally 2 1/2 ft...of surge during tonight into Wed morning high tide cycles, which would result in widespread minor to moderate coastal flooding. These surge values will result in 2 to locally 3 ft inundation in our most vulnerable locations along the southern bays of LI/NYC and Peconic/Gardiners Bay, with generally 1 to locally 2 ft across other vulnerable coastal areas. Wave action on top of elevated waters levels will exacerbate impacts along the beachfront. High surf will fall Wed afternoon into Wed Night, but remain rough through the week. Additionally...minor coastal impacts are likely to continue across vulnerable locales through the remainder of the week as Jose sits about 250 miles se of the region as Ekman pumping keeps elevated water levels along the coast. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for CTZ009-010. NY...Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT Wednesday for NYZ074. Tropical Storm Watch for NYZ078>081. Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for NYZ071-078- 177. Coastal Flood Warning until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for NYZ079>081. High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for NYZ075-080-081- 178-179. Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM Wednesday to 1 AM EDT Thursday for NYZ080-178-179. Coastal Flood Warning until noon EDT Wednesday for NYZ075-178- 179. High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for NYZ075-178- 179. NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT Wednesday for NJZ006-106- 108. MARINE...Tropical Storm Watch for ANZ340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ330-335- 338. Tropical Storm Warning for ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JM NEAR TERM...JMC/JM SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM...JC AVIATION...FEB MARINE...JC/JM HYDROLOGY...JC/JM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.