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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KOKX 132331
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
731 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure briefly builds in from the south late tonight
into Sunday. A quick moving low pressure system approaches from
the Great Lakes late Sunday afternoon, and moves through Sunday
night. High pressure returns for Monday and Tuesday. A slow
moving warm front then approaches the area from the southwest
Wednesday followed by a cold front late in the week as low
pressure passes well to the northwest.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Upper level trough moves across this evening before shifting
east of the area overnight. Low pressure at the surface
strengthens within Southeast Canada as it continues to move east.

Isolated to scattered rain shower activity will gradually
dissipate through the evening. Gusty winds (30 to 40 mph) due
to the steep pressure gradient and cold air advection will
slowly subside the first half of tonight.

Overnight, ridging trend aloft. Surface high pressure builds in
late into early Sunday morning. Drier conditions along with a
weakening pressure gradient so gusts are expected to lower late
tonight as well.

Min temperatures forecast range from upper 30s to upper 40s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Brief high pressure and continued ridging in the morning Sunday.
Day starts out mostly sunny but with increasing clouds in the
afternoon ahead of the next low pressure system, quickly moving
and developing within the Northeast from the Great Lakes. Low
level winds become more southerly Sunday, eventually becoming
gusty in the afternoon into the evening as a warm front moves
north of the region. This will increase low level warm air
advection.

The rapidly evolving and moving low pressure area will increase
vertical forcing and shear. This will be ahead of an associated
cold front. Instability increases in the low levels as well.
Showers will become likely for interior and parts of the western
area. There will be a chance for thunderstorms as well, some of
which could become strong to severe with strong to damaging
winds as the primary threat especially for more western and
interior areas. The main timing of this precipitation is from late
Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening.

Max temperatures Sunday are forecast to be upper 50s to around
70 with higher end of the range towards Lower Hudson Valley and
Northeast NJ. Min temperatures Sunday night are forecast to be
in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

Overall confidence is low on the forecast with the thunderstorms
late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. CAMs depict a line of
showers and thunderstorms moving through from the north. Model
solutions vary from completely weakening this line to some
maintaining the strength of this line as it moves southward.
Higher severe threat is within more western locations and these
locales get warmer during the day and lower severe threat is for
eastern locations that will have more stabilizing effect of the
marine layer.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Overall not much change in the long term period.

High pressure returns for Monday and will continue through
Tuesday night with dry weather expected. Both days are expected
to be somewhat mild with highs in the 60s to lower 70s.

Unsettled conditions return mid and late week as a warm front
slowly approaches from the south on Wednesday. The warm front
associated with a low pressure in the middle of the country.

Expect shower chances to increase through the day as the front
either slowly approaches or stalls over the area. PWATS increase
to over an inch, however better forcing remains west of the
region. Expecting mainly light rain at this point. Area is then
warm sectored Thursday afternoon as a cold front approaches from
the west. Can not rule out a few rumbles of thunder with the
frontal boundary, however, confidence remains low and will not
include in the forecast at this time.

The chance for unsettled weather remains Friday into Saturday
as another quick moving frontal system may impact the area, with
shower chances remaining. There is some uncertainty with this
second cold front will limit POPs to just chance.

With the unsettled weather expected and mostly cloudy skies
forecast, highs Wednesday through Saturday will generally remain
in the 50s and 60s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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High pressure briefly noses in from the south tonight into Sun
morning. A quick moving low pressure system approaches from the
Great Lakes late Sunday afternoon, with its cold front moving
through Sunday night.

VFR through Sunday afternoon, then potential for 1-3 hr period
of MVFR in SHRA/TSRA btwn 22z and 04z Sunday evening for western
terminals.

W/NW gusts 30-35kt thru the evening push gradually subside
through midnight, with gusts completely gone between 06-09Z.
Winds shift to the SW Sunday morning, with gusts 20 to 25 kt
returning by the late morning to early afternoon, and
potentially reaching S/SW G 25 to 30 kt by late afternoon.

Windshift to W/NW possible with TSRA or gust front/cold front
during the eve push, particularly western terminals.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

High confidence in VFR with W/SW winds around 10 kt for morning
push.

S seabreeze of 20-25g30kt likely for JFK in mid to late
afternoon. SW gusts 25-30kt likely for KLGA/KEWR/KTEB in the mid
to late afternoon.

Potential for 1-3 hr period of MVFR in SHRA/TSRA btwn 22z and
04z Sunday evening for western terminals. Windshift to W/NW
possible with TSRA or gust front/cold front during the eve push,
particularly western terminals. Low confidence at this point.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday Night: Chance of MVFR in SHRA/TSRA in the evening. SW to
W Windshift. VFR and W/NW winds around 10 kt aft midnight.

Mon through Tue: Mainly VFR.

Wed and Thu: Slight chc of MVFR late Wed.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Gale warning now in effect for all waters. LI Sound and Bays
gale warning goes until 9PM and NY Harbor and ocean gale warning
goes until 10PM. Thereafter, expecting much of the remainder of
the night to have SCA level winds especially on the ocean. Ocean
seas retain SCA levels through tonight.

On Sunday, non-ocean will have sub-SCA conditions in the morning
with increasing chances for SCA level gusts in the afternoon,
especially for the LI South Shore Bays. The ocean likely remains
at SCA levels for Sunday on average. SCA level gusts will be
likely for most waters Sunday evening. Overnight, wind gusts
drop to below SCA levels but ocean probably will still have
some gusts near 25 kt. Ocean seas likely remain at SCA levels
Sunday night.

SCA seas will continue on the ocean waters into Monday, with sub-SCA
conditions then expected on all waters Monday night through
Wednesday. Sub small craft conditions are likely on all waters
through midweek.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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With a fast speed expected with the showers and thunderstorms
Sunday afternoon into Sunday night, no hydrologic concerns are
expected with rainfall amounts forecast of less than a half
inch.

No hydrologic concerns exist thereafter throughout the rest of
the forecast period.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 9 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331-332-335-
     340-345.
     Gale Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ338-350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM/NV
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...BC/JM
HYDROLOGY...BC/JM