Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 061549 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1149 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL TRACK SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL BE USHERED OUT TO SEA BY A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER ON MONDAY. INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...AS BEST LIFT AND DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE ARE ROTATING INLAND FASTER THAN MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTED. DRY SLOT IN THE MID LEVELS WORKING IN FROM THE SE COULD EVEN ALLOW FOR A FEW PEAKS OF SUN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS EASTERN CT/LI. LOWERED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...AS PRECIP SHOULD BECOME MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE WITH LOWER OVERALL COVERAGE THAN THIS MORNING. OVERALL THREAT FOR THUNDER APPEARS LOW AS GREATEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT...BUT KEPT THE MENTION IN THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE...ENE FLOW NORTH OF THE SFC LOW WILL BE GUSTY ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY REACHING 35 MPH AT TIMES. WITH H5 COLD POOL ALSO MOVING ACROSS...AND SHOWALTER INDICES FALLING TO AROUND ZERO... HAVE MAINTAINED SCHC FOR ELEVATED THUNDER THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS WILL BE COOL TODAY...ONLY REACHING LOWER TO MID 50S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... THE LOW MEANDERS OVER THE DELMARVA REGION TONIGHT AND THEN WEAKENS AS IT GETS NUDGED OUT TO SEA ON SAT BY THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. CLOUDY AND COOL WITH A WEAKENING ELY FLOW THROUGH THIS TIME. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO DECREASE WITH JUST LIGHT AND SPOTTY SHOWERS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS MAY DECREASE ENOUGH OUTSIDE OF THE CITY FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE STILL PRESENT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON SAT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHICH HAS BEEN OVER THE REGION PROVIDING THE AREA WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER FINALLY GETS PUSHED EAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR RAIN...WITH THE BEST CHANCES SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BRINGING MUCH DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION. EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON MONDAY. MODEL UNCERTAINTY RETURNS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. 00Z FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATING A WARM FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY NEAR THE REGION...RESULTING IN AT LEAST BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES. POPS REMAIN CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE IS THE SUGGESTION THAT HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH MAY REMAIN FIRM AND KEEP THE CWA MAINLY DRY...FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE TIME. HOWEVER...SOME MODELS ALSO HINTS AT PERIODS OF RAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL RETROGRADE WNW TOWARDS THE NEW JERSEY COAST TODAY...IMPACTING THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. AS OF 16Z...THE STEADIER AND HEAVIER RAIN HAS PUSHED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. GENERALLY -SHRADZ FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. BETTER CHANCES FOR -SHRA ACROSS KGON. CIGS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR IN THE CITY TERMINALS. VSBYS ARE VFR IN THE CITY TERMINALS AS WELL. STILL EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE THIS AFTERNOON. E WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR COASTAL TERMINALS THIS AFT WHILE VEERING TO THE E. WINDS AND GUSTS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THIS EVENING. IFR/LIFR CIGS IN -SHRADZ LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW LOW VSBY REMAINS. POTENTIAL FOR IFR/LIFR VSBY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TODAY MAY BE OFF BY 1 TO 2 HOURS. LOW PROB OF LIFR CONDS DEVELOPING BY MID TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TODAY MAY BE OFF BY 1 TO 2 HOURS. LOW PROB OF LIFR CONDS DEVELOPING BY MID TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TODAY MAY BE OFF BY 1 TO 2 HOURS. LOW PROB OF LIFR CONDS DEVELOPING BY MID TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TODAY MAY BE OFF BY 1 TO 2 HOURS. LOW PROB OF LIFR CONDS DEVELOPING BY MID TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TODAY MAY BE OFF BY 1 TO 2 HOURS. MODERATE PROB OF LIFR CONDS DEVELOPING BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TODAY MAY BE OFF BY 1 TO 2 HOURS. LOW PROB OF LIFR CONDS DEVELOPING BY MID TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SAT THROUGH TUE... .SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR LIKELY ON SATURDAY. MVFR CIGS COULD CONTINUE INTO SAT NIGHT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. .SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND NW WINDS G20KT IN THE AFTERNOON. .MON...VFR. .TUE...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SUB VFR IN RAIN IS POSSIBLE. && .MARINE... WINDS AND SEAS ARE RUNNING SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN FORECAST AS OF MID MORNING BUT HAVE BEEN STEADILY/RAPIDLY INCREASING THE LAST FEW HOURS SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME. WITH THE CORE OF A 35KT 950-925MB JET OVER THE WATERS TODAY...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A GALE WARNING FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AS WELL AS EASTERN LI SOUND WHERE GOOD CHANNELING IS EXPECTED. SCA IN EFFECT FROM 11Z THROUGH 04Z TONIGHT ON ALL REMAINING WATERS...ALTHOUGH THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS AS WELL AS PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS MAY ALSO SEE GALE GUSTS. HAVE LEFT THEM OUT FOR NOW WITH OCNL GUSTS TO 35 KT IN THE FORECAST. GALE FORCE WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVE BUT WILL NEED TO BE REPLACED WITH SCA...MAINLY FOR SEAS ON THE OCEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT SEAS ON THE OCEAN MAY LINGER AROUND 5 FT INTO MONDAY. SUB-SCA THEN EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. WINDS SPEEDS GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 25 KT SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... BASIN AVG RAINFALL OF BETWEEN 1/2 TO 1 INCH EXPECTED HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS NYC...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND NE NJ. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR TSTMS. PONDING OF WATER IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS RECEIVING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... BRIEF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN BAYS OF WESTERN LI AND QUEENS WITH THIS MORNING HIGH TIDE. MAIN CONCERN IS THE HIGHEST ASTRONOMICAL TIDES OF THE YEAR PEAK TONIGHT. SURGE LIKELY PEAKS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WITH GALE E/NE WINDS...AND THEN BEGINS TO FALL AS HIGH TIDE APPROACHES TONIGHT. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS HIGHER GUIDANCE BASED ON THIS BEING A MULTI-TIDAL CYCLE EVENT AND CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW ALBEIT DIMINISHING THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY BETWEEN 3/4 TO 1 1/2 FT OF SURGE DURING HIGH TIDE. THUS...WIDESPREAD MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED FOR VULNERABLE COASTAL LOCALES OF SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF NASSAU...QUEENS AND SE BROOKLYN. WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG VULNERABLE COASTAL LOCALES OF WESTERN LI SOUND...SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY...STATEN ISLAND...AND TIDALLY INFLUENCED WATERWAYS OF NE NJ. ELSEWHERE ACROSS EASTERN CT...EASTERN LI...BRONX...MANHATTAN...AND NORTHERN QUEENS LOCALIZED MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN THE MOST VULNERABLE COASTAL LOCALES. MINOR BEACH EROSION LIKELY ON ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT DUE TO E TO W SWEEP OF 3 TO 6 FT SURF. FOR SAT NIGHT...ALTHOUGH ASTRO TIDES REMAIN STEADY TO SLIGHTLY DROPPING OFF...SURGE SHOULD SUBSIDE A BIT AS WELL...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAYS OF WESTERN LI...QUEENS...AND BROOKLYN. WATER LEVELS COULD POSSIBLY TOUCH MODERATE LEVELS IN THE MOST VULNERABLE LOCALES OF SOUTHERN NASSAU. ALONG WESTERN LI SOUND AND TIDALLY INFLUENCED PORTIONS OF NE NJ...SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING LIKELY. FOR SUN NIGHT...ASTRO TIDES AND SURGE SHOULD DROP WATER LEVEL FURTHER...BUT SOME LOCALIZED MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH BAYS OF WESTERN LI. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR CTZ009-010. NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NYZ071-078-177. COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 7 PM TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-178-179. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ074. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ080. NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ006-106-108. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ335-338- 340-345. GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-350-353- 355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/24 NEAR TERM...BC/24 SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM...BC AVIATION...JP MARINE...BC/24 HYDROLOGY...BC/24 TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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