Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 220556 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 156 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TRI-STATE OVERNIGHT...MEANWHILE A COASTAL LOW TRACKS TO THE EAST...THEN NORTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HIGH THEN DOMINATES THE WEATHER THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SEEMS TO BE THROUGH ORANGE COUNTY NY AS OF 04Z AND WILL CONTINUE EAST. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. EVEN WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE...SHOWERS ARE NOT DISSIPATING AS QUICKLY AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. HAVE ADDED POPS FOR LONG ISLAND AND CENTRAL/EASTERN CT THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PATCHY FOG STILL IN PLACE OVER OUR EASTERN CT COUNTIES AND CLEARING UP OVER LONG ISLAND. EXPECT FOG TO LIFT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO T/TD BASED ON TRENDS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... REGION REMAINS UNDER THE BASE OF 700-500 HPA TROUGH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE A FEW SHORTWAVES ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH - BUT GIVEN FORECAST DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS WOULD ONLY EXPECT AT MOST SOME CLOUDS AS THEY PASS. SO GOING WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY MONDAY AND A MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKY MONDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT. FOR HIGHS MONDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 875 HPA...EXCEPT 850 HPA OVER THE NW 1/4 OF THE CWA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. EXPECT READINGS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT - WITH READINGS FORECAST TO BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF ORANGE COUNTY. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES MONDAY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE EAST COAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THE COMBINED HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH THEN BUILDS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY INTO SUNDAY. INITIALLY THE AIR MASS WILL BE COOL TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WARMING TREND SETS UP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES. NEXT WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE REBOUNDED TO ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. WNW WINDS IN WAKE OF FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING...INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER DAYBREAK WITH ISOLD GUSTS TO 30KT. WINDS GENERALLY WILL WAVER BETWEEN 290 AND 320 MAG DURING THE DAY. FOR CITY TERMINALS...WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE JUST RIGHT OF 310 MAG THIS MORNING...THEN COULD BACK A TO LEFT OF 310 MAG AT KJFK/KEWR THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF TROUGH APPROACH. WINDS AND GUST SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...VEERING GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310 MAG. IFR CIGS ACROSS KGON...BECOMES VFR BEHIND THE FRONT BY 08Z. A FEW -SHRA WITH FRONT. OTHERWISE...VFR TODAY WITH SCT-BKN 4-5KFT CU THIS AFTERNOON. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUE THROUGH THU... .LATE MON NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS DIMINISHING. .TUE...VFR WITH LGT WINDS. .WED...MVFR CIGS AROUND 3000FT POSSIBLE. ENE WINDS 5-15KT. .THU...VFR WITH LGT NE FLOW. && .MARINE... SEAS BUILD TO UP TO 5 FT ON THE WESTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND UP TO 8 FT ON THE EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS OVERNIGHT. WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ON MONDAY - WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. SCA WIND GUSTS SHOULD LINGER OVER THE EASTERN TWO COASTAL WATER ZONES INTO MONDAY EVENING AND SCA LEVEL SEAS THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THOSE TWO ZONES...SO HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR ANZ-350 AND 353 THROUGH 10Z TUESDAY AS A RESULT. ON THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE FORECAST ON MONDAY - HOWEVER OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25KT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE EXTREME OUTER OCEAN WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY INTO SATURDAY WIND AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. && .HYDROLOGY... LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE PASSING OF A COASTAL LOW TO THE EAST AND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ355. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/MET NEAR TERM...LN/DS/MET SHORT TERM...MALOIT LONG TERM...MET AVIATION...NV MARINE...MALOIT/MET HYDROLOGY...MALOIT

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