Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 092124 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 424 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST PASSES WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND. A FRONTAL SYSTEM THEN APPROACHES EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... LOW PRES DEVELOPS EAST OF THE DELMARVA THIS EVENING...AND THEN PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND TOWARDS THE 40/70 BENCHMARK LATE TONIGHT AND INTO DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING...AND THEN AS BANDS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE LOW...THOSE BANDS WILL MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA. LATEST NAM KEEPS THE HEAVIER BANDS OFFSHORE...WHILE THE LATEST GFS BRINGS THEM ACROSS NYC AND LONG ISLAND. LATEST ECMWF DOES NOT REALLY INDICATE MUCH BANDING...AND HAS MINIMAL LIQUID QPF OVERALL. IF THOSE SNOW BANDS MATERIALIZE AND MOVE ONSHORE...THOSE AREAS COULD PICK UP 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY ON EASTERN LONG ISLAND...PICKING UP 3-5 INCHES. THE SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE WIDELY VARIABLE...WITH SOME AREAS UNDER THE ADVISORY NOT GETTING MUCH MORE THAN A DUSTING TO AN INCH OF SNOW. IT ALL DEPENDS ON WHERE THE BANDS SET UP. IN ADDITION...WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THERE IS A BIT OF A CONVECTIVE ELEMENT TO THIS SYSTEM. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR 2. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S INLAND TO THE MID AND UPPER 20S NEAR THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... LOW PRES CONTINUES TO DEPART ON WEDNESDAY...AND ANY SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. DRY CONDS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON THROUGHOUT. ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL ONLY CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE REGION. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY COULD REACH 40 IN MOST AREAS. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 20S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MEAN UPPER TROF REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THIS PERIOD WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIRMASS PLUNGING SOUTH FROM THE ARCTIC AND INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS WEEKEND. IN FACT...HEIGHT AND TEMP FIELD ANOMALIES ARE ON THE ORDER OF 3-5 SD BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME PERIOD WITH 85H TEMPS SAT AND SAT NIGHT -25 TO -30 DEG C. THIS WILL EQUATE TO DAYTIME HIGHS ON SAT STRUGGLING TO GET TO 20 AND NOT OUT OF THE TEENS ON SUN. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUN MORNING WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW ZERO WITH WIND CHILLS MEETING ADVISORY CRITERIA...-15 TO -24 DEG F. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC AT THE ONSET OF THE PERIOD WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT NE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRI PASSES THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT WITH THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON AND IN FACT MANY YEARS FOR SOME LOCATIONS. A STRONG NW FLOW WILL BE PRESENT ON THU BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AND AGAIN SAT AND SUN BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. IN FACT...WINDS ON THESE DAYS WILL LIKELY GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. THUS...THIS WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS SAT INTO SUN. AS FOR ANY PCPN...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING OF A SNOW SQUALL ASSOC WITH THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THEREAFTER...A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES MON INTO TUE WITH SIGNIFICANT TIMING ISSUES AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS. AIRMASS MODERATES SIGNIFICANTLY MON INTO TUE WITH HIGH IN 30S MON AND INTO THE 40S ON TUE. THIS WOULD LIKELY BE A SNOW TO RAIN EVENT...BUT THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME PERIOD. && .AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH AND ENTER THE REGION TONIGHT. MOSTLY MVFR...BUT SOME VFR NORTH OF THE CITY THRU MID-LATE AFTERNOON. FLIGHT CATS LOWER THIS EVENING WITH SNOW. FOR ALL TERMINALS...THERE COULD BE OCCASIONAL FLURRIES AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE ONSET OF STEADIER SNOW. SNOW ACCUMS IN THE 2-5 INCH RANGE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING. WINDS E TO VAR AROUND 5KT FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND TONIGHT. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: VFR COULD POSSIBLY PREVAIL INSTEAD OF TEMPO THRU 23Z. ONSET OF STEADIER SNOW THIS EVENING COULD BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: VFR COULD POSSIBLY PREVAIL INSTEAD OF TEMPO THRU 23Z. ONSET OF STEADIER SNOW THIS EVENING COULD BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO VFR POSSIBLE BEFORE 23Z. ONSET OF STEADIER SNOW THIS EVENING COULD BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO VFR POSSIBLE BEFORE 23Z. ONSET OF STEADIER SNOW THIS EVENING COULD BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SUB-VFR COULD BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS. ONSET OF STEADIER SNOW THIS EVENING COULD BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: VFR COULD POSSIBLY PREVAIL INSTEAD OF TEMPO BEFORE 23Z...BUT TEMPO VFR MIGHT NOT OCCUR AT ALL. ONSET OF STEADIER SNOW THIS EVENING COULD BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .WEDS PM...VFR. W GUSTS 20-25KT. .THU...SLIGHT CHC -SHSN...OTHERWISE VFR. WNW GUSTS 25-30KT. .FRI...VFR. .SAT...SLIGHT CHC -SHSN...OTHERWISE VFR. NW GUSTS 25-30KT. .SUN...VFR. NW GUSTS 20-25KT. && .MARINE... SCA CONDS PERSIST ON THE OCEAN WATERS...MAINLY FOR HIGH SEAS TONIGHT. THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON WEDNESDAY...AND WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 KT WILL DEVELOP ON ALL WATERS LATE IN THE MORNING. WILL HOIST SCA FOR THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. FOR THE OCEAN...GALES POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A GALE WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS MAY LINGER ON THE OCEAN WATERS INTO THU WITH A STRONG NW GRADIENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE WINDS FRI INTO FRI NIGHT WITH SEAS POSSIBLY LINGERING AROUND 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS RETURN SAT INTO SUN FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATE FRI NIGHT. && .HYDROLOGY... LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE LESS THAN 1/2 INCH...ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS. LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THU THROUGH SAT WIT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES MON INTO TUE WITH THE CHANCE OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT PCPN EVENT. THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING AND PTYPE AT THIS POINT IN TIME. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A GRADUALLY DOWNWARD TREND IN SURGE AND ASTRONOMICAL TIDES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GENERALLY LOOKING AT MINOR COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS FOR NY HARBOR...COASTAL NE NJ AND WESTERN LI SOUND WITH THIS EVENINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLE...AND LOCALLY MODERATE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS OF LONG ISLAND. SURGE LOWERS FURTHER FOR WEDNESDAY MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLE...WITH MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE MOST VULNERABLE LOCALES OF THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS...NY HARBOR...NE NJ...AND WESTERN LI SOUND. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHTS HIGH TIDE...WITH ANY BRIEF LOCALIZED MINOR IMPACTS LIKELY BEING RELEGATED TO THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LI. SURF WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER SO BEACH IMPACTS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED. && .CLIMATE... WITH THE EXTREMELY COLD AIRMASS FORECAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...RECORD MINIMUMS AND RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS MAY BE REACHED. HERE ARE THE RECORDS: STATION.........RECORD MINIMUM.............RECORD LOW MAXIMUM FOR 2/14 FOR 2/14 NYC.................2 (1916)....................17 (1979).... LGA.................1 (1979)....................15 (1979).... JFK.................4 (1979)....................17 (1979).... ISP.................7 (2015)....................26 (1987).... EWR.................0 (1979)....................15 (1979).... BDR.................3 (2015*)...................18 (1979).... *IN 1979 AS WELL && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ009>012. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ009. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 3 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ009. NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ069>075-078>081-176>179. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ074-075-080-178-179. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ074-075-080-178-179. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ071-078-177. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 3 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ071-078-177. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ081. NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ002- 004-006-103>108. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NJZ006-106-108. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ006-106-108. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345. GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ350-353-355. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353- 355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPS/DW NEAR TERM...MPS SHORT TERM...MPS LONG TERM...DW AVIATION...JC MARINE...MPS/DW HYDROLOGY...MPS/DW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... CLIMATE...JP

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