Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 231650 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1250 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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The remnant low of Jose will dissipate well to the southeast over the next couple of days, while high pressure to the northwest will be in control through the first half of next week. Meanwhile, Hurricane Maria is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to pass to the southeast and remain away from the local area. A cold front will pass through on Thursday, followed by building high pressure on Friday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Sunny for the rest of this afternoon as Jose remnant low drifts east. Will still see a N breeze gusting to 20 mph at times. Dewpoints in the 50s and lower 60s will make for a comfortably warm, not too humid air mass, as high temps reach the 80s, warmest from NYC metro north/west and across the interior CT river valley. There is a moderate rip current risk at the ocean beaches.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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Expect a continuation of unseasonably warm and dry conditions as heights aloft continue to rise. H8 temps will approach 18C, with highs 85 to 90 across much of the area on Sunday, except for the immediate coast where it will be in the lower 80s. Readings will be 10 to 15 degrees above avg with few if any clouds. See climate section below for potential records. Gradually building swells from distant Hurricane Maria will produce a moderate to high risk of rip currents on Sunday.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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A anomalous upper air pattern will feature a longwave trough over the western states, and a highly amplified ridge across the east. Hurricane Maria will track slowly north through the week. The global models are now all pointing toward a more westward solution for Maria as the weakness provided by the remnants of Jose appears to be less of a factor than it was 24 hours ago, with the upper ridge expanding eastward across the western Atlantic. This in turn could cause a more westward track for Maria. Eventually though, a strong upper trough approaches from the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes to deflect the system to the south and east of the area. There is still some uncertainty and timing issues at this juncture in the forecast. Please refer to the latest advisories from the National Hurricane Center for the official forecast on Maria. Warm heights aloft and subsidence will result in an unseasonably warm week and a dry start. At the moment, there continues to be a low chance of showers Tuesday through Thursday as moisture works in ahead of Maria and the upper ridge begins to break down with the approach of an upper trough. Depending on the future track of Maria, some of this moisture could interact with a cold frontal boundary late Wednesday into Thursday. A return to more seasonable weather is forecast on Friday behind the cold front. Due to long period swells from Maria, there will be a prolonged period of rough surf at the ocean beaches.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure builds in from the west into Sunday morning, as Post Tropical Cyclone Jose continues to slowly weaken as it drifts southeast well off of Cape Cod. VFR through the TAF period. Northerly winds will gust to 15-20 kt across the area late this morning through this afternoon before diminishing towards sunset. The exception to this is KGON where gusts will be slightly higher, in the 20-25 kt range. Winds then become light and variable tonight. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .Sunday-Monday...VFR. .Monday night-Wednesday...MVFR or lower possible and scattered showers are possible. E-SE winds G15-20kt possible Wednesday. && .MARINE...
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Based on obs have converted straight SCA for winds/seas into one for hazardous seas only. Ocean seas should subside below 5 ft for a long enough time tonight into Sunday to warrant temporary cancellation of the SCAHS for most of the ocean waters, beginning this evening W of Fire Island Inlet, and later this evening from Fire Island Inlet to Moriches Inlet. Incoming swell from Hurricane Maria should return ocean seas in that latter area to 5 ft daytime Sunday. Swells from a Maria will build thereafter through to 6-11 ft by Tue night, highest east of Fire Island Inlet.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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No hydrologic problems anticipated. The interaction of a cold front with tropical moisture late Wednesday into Thursday will need to be watched.
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&& .CLIMATE...
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The following are record high temperatures for Sunday September 24, 2017 along with the forecast high temperature. Record High Temperature Forecast High Temperature ----------------------------- ------------------------- Central Park........89 (1959) 89 LaGuardia...........89 (1959) 88 Kennedy.............88 (1970) 87 Islip...............83 (2009) 86 Newark..............92 (1959) 90 Bridgeport..........87 (1959) 84 The following are record maximum minimum temperatures for Sunday September 24, 2017 along with the forecast minimum temperature. Record High Minimum Temperature Forecast Minimum Temperature ------------------------------- ---------------------------- Central Park........74 (1970) 70 LaGuardia...........73 (1970) 71 Kennedy.............71 (1970) 69 Islip...............69 (1970) 65 Newark..............74 (1970) 68 Bridgeport..........71 (2011) 66
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ355. Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ350. Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ353.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Goodman/DW NEAR TERM...Goodman SHORT TERM...Goodman/DW LONG TERM...DW AVIATION...FEB MARINE...Goodman/Maloit HYDROLOGY...Goodman/DW CLIMATE...

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