Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 231438 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1038 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF MONTAUK WILL DEEPEN AND MEANDER IN THE GENERAL VICINITY TODAY BEFORE TRACKING NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY LATE FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON SATURDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST EARLY TO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE NEW WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... NEARLY STACKED LOW MEANDERS NEAR THE VICINITY OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK TODAY. BANDS OF LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN WILL PIVOT AROUND THE LOW TODAY WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS LIKELY...FOCUSED MORE TOWARD THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND DURING THE BALANCE OF THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BE LESS WIDESPREAD BY LATE AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. NAM MOS TEMPS LOOKED TOO COOL AND WERE DISCOUNTED. SO A BLEND OF THE MAV/ECS LOOKED REASONABLE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S INLAND TO AROUND 60 AT THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO GET PICKED UP BY THE WESTERLIES TONIGHT...TRACKING NE TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THINGS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT FROM W TO E THIS EVENING WITH DECREASING POPS. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO FRI WITH PARTIAL CLEARING BY LATE IN THE DAY FRI. WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE TONIGHT AND FRI. CHILLY TONIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...IN THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA. A BIT WARMER ON FRI GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 60S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VERTICALLY STACKED LOW NEAR NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT EVENTUALLY BECOMES DIFFUSE AND MERGES WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH ITS PASSAGE...AND WITH THE PASSAGE OF H5 SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY. STRONG NW GRADIENT DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH 15-20 MPH WINDS WITH 20-30 MPH GUSTS. HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK AND THEN DEPARTS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE AIRMASS WILL MODERATE AND TEMPS WILL BE MILD...TOPPING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SOMETIME LATE IN THE NEW WEEK. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF MONTAUK POINT WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST...PASSING EAST OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL MOST OF THE TIME INTO LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH BRIEF VFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME. PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH THIS MORNING AND INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WILL BE TOUGH TO TIME AS RAIN BANDS MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST AROUND THE LOW. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO LOW END VFR...3 TO 5 KFT...LATER THIS AFTERNOON. EASTERN TERMINALS THOUGH WILL HANG ONTO LOWER CEILINGS A LITTLE LONGER. THEN GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CEILINGS TONIGHT. WINDS REMAIN QUITE STRONG FROM THE NORTH...15 TO 20 KT...WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT. WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING...EXCEPT NYC AND COASTAL TERMINALS. GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT OVERNIGHT. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS WITH IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS WITH IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS WITH IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS WITH IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .FRIDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE FOR SPOTTY MVFR CEILINGS. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE. .FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE. .SATURDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VFR...LOW CHANCE MVFR IN BRIEF SHOWERS. W WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE. .SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE. .MONDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER IN THIS GENERAL VICINITY OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...THEN TRACK NE REACHING NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. GALES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND AT THE SAME TIME...SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OTHER WATERS. SCA GUSTS EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN AFTER GALES SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO FRI MORNING. SEAS WILL LINGER INTO FRI AFTN. SUB ADVSY CONDS ELSEWHERE. MARGINAL SCA CONDS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT ON THE OCEAN WATERS. TIGHT NW GRADIENT DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY WITH 25-30 KT WIND GUSTS LIKELY...AND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 35 KT ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS FOR A BRIEF TIME SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. TRANQUIL CONDS EXPECTED FOR THE NEW WEEK. && .HYDROLOGY... UP TO AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FOR THE BALANCE OF TODAY...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS NORTHWEST OF THE CITY. NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FRI NIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... BASED ON LATEST OBS AND TRENDS...WILL CONTINUE WITH A COASTAL FLOODING STATEMENT FOR SPOTS ALONG WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OF TOUCHING MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS WILL BE ALONG THE NORTHERN SHORE OF LONG ISLAND NOW THAT THE WINDS HAVE BEEN NORTHERLY FOR SEVERAL HOURS. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338- 340-345. GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...24/MPS NEAR TERM...JC/24/MPS SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM...MPS AVIATION...MET/PW MARINE...24/MPS HYDROLOGY...24/MPS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JC

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