Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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760 FXUS61 KOKX 030013 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 713 PM EST Fri Dec 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A series of disturbances will push across New England and the Canadian Maritimes through Saturday night resulting in gusty northwest winds across the area. High pressure builds Sunday, then gives way to a weak disturbance Sunday night into Monday. High pressure builds in late Monday into Tuesday. A frontal system will approach for the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Minor updates to temperatures and dewpoints to account for current conditions. Radar echoes moving south over parts of Connecticut and the Lower Hudson Valley may produce a sprinkle or two, but with dewpoint depressions of 10-20 degrees it is unlikely that much precipitation will reach the ground. Otherwise the forecast remains on track. A mid and low-level trough axis was swinging across northern New England and Upstate New York this afternoon and was helping to set off light precipitation across Upstate New York as well as advect in stratus clouds into our area. The stratus has filled in from west to east today and will remain in place overnight as this first spoke of energy works across New England toward the Canadian Maritimes. Dewpoint depressions at the surface are high enough that it is highly unlikely precipitation could make it to the ground in our area outside of a sprinkle in Orange or northern Fairfield and New Haven Counties. With this trough, winds have picked up ahead of it from the southwest to west and have been gusty at times especially from The City north and west. Gusts have reached 37 mph at Stewart Airport and this should be the higher end of things. However, the surface pressure gradient will remain tight enough overnight that this will help to keep winds gusty at times overnight. Lows will be a little colder than this morning, but given the clouds and wind drop into the lower 30s in the coldest spots away from The City to the lower 40s in The City. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... The first trough and associated energy rotates offshore and is followed by a second disturbance with associated mid-level energy that rotates across northern New England toward Boston tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening. As a result, we may get some breaks in the clouds at times, especially toward the coast as the flow remains offshore and the northwesterly flow off the terrain may aid in breaking up some of the lower clouds around. The surface pressure gradient remains tight and winds in the 925-700 mb level increase to around 35 kts, so gusts again over 30 mph can be expected through early Saturday evening. Temps will be a little below normal for highs. Winds will start to drop off Saturday night as the energy works offshore and high pressure at the surface combined with mid-level ridging builds in from the west. Clouds should clear on out and with less wind, expect a chillier night. The coldest spots well north and west of The City and in the Pine Barrens of Long Island will drop into the 20s with readings in The City in the mid to upper 30s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Weak ridge aloft Sunday gives way to weak shortwave and progressive pattern. Southern stream shortwave moves out of Mexico, and tracks across Texas Monday before weakening as it moves quickly across the southeast states Tuesday. Meanwhile, closed northern stream low moves across central Canada, making slow progress toward the Great Lakes mid week, then into New England late in the week. Differences noted in position and strength of this impressive trough is moves moves east late in the week. At the surface, high pressure builds Sunday through Monday. Two areas of low pressure will form along this frontal boundary. One over the Southeast that will push off the southeast coast Tuesday night, then head east. The other will develop over the Ohio Valley and pass north of the area into Wednesday. These systems associated with southern stream shortwave mentioned earlier. Cold air damming signature noted for Tuesday, so precipitation may start off as snow inland again, then change over to rain, with a mixture of rain and snow Tuesday night. Again, QPF is expected to be light. As for Sunday night, upper trough could result in a few rain/snow showers as it moves through. ECMWF is much wetter than the other model solutions, less than a tenth of an inch. Based on this, upped pops slightly, but would not be surprised to see very little qpf. Worth watching. Temperatures will be within a few degrees of normal through mid week. Temps could jump slightly ahead of late week trough. Then leaned toward colder numbers Friday, closer to WPC and away from model blend. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Strong low pressure will slowly drift offshore tonight. Meanwhile high pressure builds into the Ohio valley. VFR through the period. SCT-BKN cigs 4-6kft will dissipate overnight. Westerly gusts of 20-25 kt...generally left of 310 magnetic are expected. Gusts are expected to be maintained through the evening push for NYC/NJ metro terminals...and likely for outlying terminals. A few peak gusts 25-30 kt are possible until about 02z. Gusts will periodically drop out for interior TAF sites after 06z. On Saturday, the gradient tightens and additional NW gusts are expected. A few NW peak gusts could exceed 30 kt at times by early afternoon. Winds direction should be very close or just to the right of 310-320 magnetic during the day. Gusts will start to decrease after 0z Sunday. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: High confidence with wind gusts coming back by the mid to late morning, with gusts approaching 30 knots into the afternoon. KLGA TAF Comments: High confidence with wind gusts coming back by the mid to late morning, with gusts approaching 30 knots into the afternoon. KEWR TAF Comments: High confidence with wind gusts coming back by the mid to late morning, with gusts approaching 30 knots into the afternoon. KTEB TAF Comments: High confidence with wind gusts coming back by the mid to late morning, with gusts approaching 30 knots into the afternoon. KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KISP TAF Comments: High confidence with wind gusts coming back by the mid to late morning, with gusts approaching 30 knots into the afternoon. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .Saturday...VFR. Afternoon NW gusts near 30 kt. Generally right and very close to 310-320 magnetic. .Sunday...VFR. .Monday..VFR...Low chc of early morning MVFR. .Tuesday...Morning VFR...chc of MVFR in the afternoon. .Wednesday...Morning MVFR with a mixture of rain and snow for north and west terminals with rain across southern and eastern terminals...with chc of sub VFR into the afternoon in rain showers.
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&& .MARINE... Gusty northwest winds will continue on the coastal waters through Saturday afternoon as a series of disturbances works across New England and the Canadian Maritimes. Given the northwest wind trajectory, the highest waves will be well offshore as well as toward the southeast end of The Sound and toward the mouth of New York Harbor. A Small Craft Advisory was extended through 23Z Saturday based on a tight pressure gradient and the potential for winds to gust as high as 30 to perhaps 35 kts. There are fairly strong winds aloft through Saturday evening, however, an inversion looks to keep most of the strongest momentum trapped and from reaching the surface. Wave heights will mainly be 4 to 7 feet on the ocean. Winds will start to decrease Saturday evening, though the Small Craft Advisory may need to be extended a but if winds are slower to drop off. As high pressure builds Sunday and Monday, winds diminish and seas remain rather tranquil. Expect conditions to deteriorate Tuesday into Wednesday as two areas of low pressure approach the waters, and winds increase ahead of these lows. Seas expected to build, but lowered forecast below Wave Watch III output. && .HYDROLOGY... No significant precipitation (greater than a half inch) is forecast through Monday. Unsettled weather is possible mid to late week next week. However, no significant precipitation (greater than a half inch) is forecast at this time. && .CLIMATE... The two rounds of rain this week certainly helped with our drought across the Tri-State area. However, most of the relief was likely in the area of higher level soil moisture, vegetation and streamflows with larger reservoirs showing a slight positive response and smaller reservoirs showing a greater positive response. Portions of our area - especially over the immediate City - now show a surplus in the 30 and to a lesser extent 60 day period. Ironically despite the drought Newark`s November precipitation total of 6.52 inches was enough to rank it as the 11th wettest November on record dating back to 1931. As deeply entrenched as the current drought has been, it will certainly not break quickly but any trend toward a wetter pattern will certainly help things improve or at least keep them from getting worse. We still have yet to hit freezing this fall at Central Park. There have only been 11 seasons counting this year back to 1871 where the first freeze of the season held off until December. The latest first freeze ever at The Park was back in the very warm of December of 1998 (which as a La Nina episode) and did not take place until the 22nd. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Saturday for ANZ330-335- 338-340-345-350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CS NEAR TERM...FEB/CS SHORT TERM...CS LONG TERM...PW AVIATION...JE MARINE...PW/CS HYDROLOGY...PW/CS CLIMATE...

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